heh.. thanks for the laugh rainbow.. was that post of yours an explanation of how the dollar will appreciate once things settle down in iraq? talking about visa agreements with poland and "what business is all about" doesn't answer the problems with the dollar.. it isn't even relavent!
Hahahahahhahahaha..that was the best joke I have read in years Rainbow, your grasp on global economics is astounding!, this explains why most banks across the world are diversifying their assets AWAY from the US dollar and bloomberg is predicting it to fall for the entire year. However I will report to the market that Poland is staying...Im sure it will have important consequences for the US currency and they will reassess accordingly....hahahahahaha
I wouldn't recommend sex, drugs and insanity for everyone, but its always worked for me.
Never think that war, no matter how necessary, nor how justified, is not a crime." (Ernest Hemingway)
not to mention that poland's a member of the EU and will adopt the euro in a couple years.
from bloomberg:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...currency_rates
Foreigners bought a net $61.3 billion of U.S. financial assets, down from a revised $89.3 billion in November, the Treasury Department said in a report on transactions of government and corporate bonds, stocks and other financial assets. Economists expected net purchases of $58.3 billion, based on the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey.
<snip>
The deficit in the current account was a record $164.7 billion in the third quarter. The gap means the U.S. must receive about $1.8 billion every day, or $55 billion a month, to maintain the dollar's value, according to Bloomberg calculations. The current account is a measure of trade, services, tourism and some investments.
I wouldn't count on Iraq to keep the US boat afloat either. If the US respects the results of this election, then we will see Grand Ayatollah Ali-Sistani's people in power, and they're committed to nationalising the oil industry and having a speedy withdrawal of US troops. I hope this is the case, would be good to see all the ill-gotten gains taken away from Bush's buddies.
(formerly G.Adams)
"You can avoid reality but you cannot avoid the consequences of avoiding reality" ~ Ayn Rand
that article i quoted from bloomberg's SCARY.
if global demand for the dollar drops by $3.3 billion per month, we could have some real inflation problems on our hands.
Here, I have a link for you, guys :
http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0303/S00182.htm
Instead of laughing you had better start praying Sistani will become "Iraqi hero" when it comes to the choice :
- going for "the new world"
- going back to Islamic fundaments
Option #1 is what U.S. needs. Otherwise, U.S. economy is in a deep *** today, and years to come, so the next generations' existance along with the way of living may appear less-dreaming, but rather hellish one.
If that happens, and U.S. economy collapses or will be hit hardly, then Europe suffers as well.
Who has money ? and what this world is all about ?
Sometimes, I think that Earth is Hell or can transform into something like that or close to it.
It's amazing how often I keep hearing how "strong" this country is when the U.S. has boxed itself into a situation where, due to the pursuit of wealth, our economy is, and has been, hanging by a thread for decades. I remember a story about 15 years ago that exaplained how even MEXICO could bring this country almost to its knees.
It has to do with debt, and this economist (or whatever) was explaining how many billions in debt to american banks Mexico was. As you probably know, a bank lists the money owed to it as an asset even though it doesn't actually HAVE the money. The story went on to say that if Mexico decided to default on its loans (and it could do that with the swipe of a presidential pen) it would throw all those banks into chaos and many into collapse.
I'm not an economist but I figure if you take THAT and add it to the billions the U.S. OWES to other countries, it indicates our economy is much like the North American electric power grid. One little mishap somewhere and the whole system goes down. I believe we have already lost control of the situation and the end is merely delayed by the efforts of thousands of fingers trying to plug millions of holes in the dam.
The fact is the markets are very good at judging the way the scales are tipping. Currently they are tipping towards the Euro and away from the USA. That is why the dollar is decreasing in value. In order for the dollar to increase in value a few things have to happen.
Chavez would need to be replaced and soon, time is a critical issue. Once the American dollar starts spirals down past a certain point its game over.
America must ensure a govt is elected that is pro denationalisation of oil reserves and is US friendly.
It must also cut the deficit although I don't see this happening.
The fact is the Euro now has a good foothold. Iraq swapping to the euro for oil sales gave it a beach head from which to springboard off. It has already sprung and is closing on the dollar as an international currency daily, it has gained acceptancy so much that countries are shifting part of their stockpile of dollars into Euros again driving the dollar down and creating demand for the Euro driving its value upwards. The stronger the Euro gets the more likely OPEC countries are to adopt it for oil sales as they can get a lot more money for their oil.
I expect that in the end both Dollars and Euros will be used for oil sales and while this might hit the US economy hard it will not collapse it, especially if it happens slowly enough, which I think most countries are commited to as no country wants to see American go bust as it would make their stockpiled dollars worthless and destroy the biggest consumer nation on earth leading to a vast number of countries having a massive cut in their export volume.
The war may even be just an over-reaction on the part of Washington, maybe it was never ment to throw the Euro back into the sea, just slow down its adoption so it can apply a brake to the downward economic effect, slowing it so its impact is much less than it otherwise would have been.
I wouldn't recommend sex, drugs and insanity for everyone, but its always worked for me.
Never think that war, no matter how necessary, nor how justified, is not a crime." (Ernest Hemingway)
I like the weak dollar, exports should go up, GDP goes up because US products are cheaper to buy, my dollar buys more investments so that when the dollar strengthens I'm worth more.
I know, I know - long term greed, but time is on my side.
Live Long and Prosper (Genetics and Capitalism)
rainbow, you seem to be learning this here for the first time, so i'll try to explain it better for you and give you a view of the present... despite our intervention in iraq, countries all over the world are beginning to convert their reserves to euros. i mentioned all of this in the previous posts, that i guess you couldn't digest.
it would seem that your solution is to go to war against every oil producing country that begins to price oil in euros, right? do you realize how stupid of a "solution" that is? you can engage in nation building and install friendly regimes, but nothing lasts forever in the big picture. and artificial creations through force are always more likely to fail than the opposite.
not to mention that fighting all these wars is bankrupting the country. well, we're already bankrupt, so this just deepens the hole. has a war in iraq done anything for the dollar? nope. plus, every hint of new intervention/war sends the dollar even further down. all of this weakens global demand for the dollar, as my link from bloomberg already stated. perhaps you should read the information that's already been provided and THINK.
the real answer imo, is to just balance the god damn budget and to stop acting like the global hegemon that we are.
who says that the dollar will go up rcne? sounds like you're taking its presumed strength for granted. if so, that's a big mistake on your part.
and this bit about how our exports should go up... that's such a weak argument in the big picture.. our exports go up, but manufacturing jobs keep shrinking. i guess that's great for the country too... this article sums things up nicely, in the land of milk and honey where nothing ever matters:
http://www.financialsense.com/editor...2005/0118.html
***
do you like inflation too? cuz that's what the weak dollar's buying you.I like the weak dollar
Last edited by bishop; 18th February 2005 at 09:35 AM. Reason: to add
Your exports go up but the problem is you have been a land of consumers so long you really don't have a hugely established manufacturing industry anymore, as you have said its been shrinking for years. Not to mention your companies have been shipping all their jobs offshore to china and india.
IMO your dollar is going to go down and stay down for a long time. Sorry to say but your nation is more or less theoretically bankrupt, the only thing keeping it afloat are countries like Japan.
I wouldn't recommend sex, drugs and insanity for everyone, but its always worked for me.
Never think that war, no matter how necessary, nor how justified, is not a crime." (Ernest Hemingway)
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