For those of you still wondering about Global Warming

[Sonart]

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Check out the cover story of this week's TIME Magazine...

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GLOBAL WARMING: BE WORRIED, BE VERY WORRIED

"Never mind what you've heard about global warming as a slow-motion emergency that would take decades to play out. Suddenly and unexpectedly, the crisis is upon us."

"The climate is crashing, and global warming is to blame. Why the crisis hit so soon--and what we can do about it."

"Global warming is already disrupting the biological world, pushing many species to the brink of extinction and turning others into runaway pests. But the worst is yet to come."

"NASA's chief climate scientist, who charged that his views on global warming were being squelched, says we're getting close to a tipping point."

"Environmentalists and lawmakers spent years shouting at one another about whether the grim forecasts were true, but in the past five years or so, the serious debate has quietly ended. Global warming, even most skeptics have concluded, is the real deal, and human activity has been causing it. If there was any consolation, it was that the glacial pace of nature would give us decades or even centuries to sort out the problem."

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It's time for naysayers to take their fingers out of their ears, accept reality, and tell our clueless government that it's time to take action... NOW!!


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[rmnunez]

The sky is falling, the sky is falling!!!!

[Sonart]

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Sean -- I realize that you think this is just another Science & Technology debate, but I very specifically chose to place it in Breaking News, because I believe it's exactly that. News and scientific articles have been accumulating at an explosive rate over the last few months, and this TIME article is a defacto announcement that the debate is finally over. Global warming is happening, we caused it, and it's happening faster than even researchers thought it would. It's no longer an arcane topic of scientific discussion... it's the single most important issue - both short term and long term - the world will be facing in the coming generations. I would implore you to return it to Breaking News.

Quote by: rmnunez The sky is falling, the sky is falling!!!!

We've butted heads on many occassions, rm, and I've always respected your sensible reasoning and sincere beliefs. But I'm very surprised, and disappointed, in this flip response.

Do you know why you don't see Global Warming being debated on this board any more? Because there is no debate and there is no doubt. As I told Sean, over the last several months researchers around the world have been announcing the same thing... Global Warming is very, very real, We are causing it, and it's happening way faster than anyone anticipated.

If you honestly think there's still serious debate within the scientific community, stop thinking it. There isn't.

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--"A National Research Council report concluded that "greenhouse gases are accumulating in the Earth's atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise."-- The American Meteorological Society

--"Human activity has been increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (mostly carbon dioxide from combustion of coal, oil, and gas; plus a few other trace gases). There is no scientific debate on this point. Pre-industrial levels of carbon dioxide (prior to the start of the Industrial Revolution) were about 280 parts per million by volume (ppmv), and current levels are about 370 ppmv. The concentration of CO2 in our atmosphere today, has not been exceeded in the last 420,000 years, and likely not in the last 20 million years"-- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

--"Scientists who first sounded the global-warming alert predicted temperatures on Earth would accelerate at a rate of four degrees Fahrenheit in the next 100 years. Now comes data from the National Climate Data Center that indicates the globe has already warmed at that rate in the past 25 years. "This could be the start of a greater rate of warming than we've seen," said NCDC director Thomas Karl. Karl and colleagues aren't ready to declare that the rate of global warming has suddenly increased. However, their data strongly suggests that the increased warming since 1976 is the result of human activity, Karl said."-- National Climate Data Center

--"Human activities are increasingly altering the Earth's climate. These effects add to natural influences that have been present over Earth's history. Scientific evidence strongly indicates that natural influences cannot explain the rapid increase in global near-surface temperatures observed during the second half of the 20th century."-- American Geophysical Union

--"Greenhouse gases (GHGs) cause a global climate forcing, i.e., an imposed perturbation of Earth's energy balance with space (Hansen et al. 1997). Specifically, GHGs reduce heat radiation to space, causing Earth to warm. There are many competing natural and anthropogenic climate forcings, but increasing GHGs are estimated to be the largest forcing and to result in a net positive forcing, especially during the past few decades (IPCC 1996, Hansen et al. 1998)."-- NASA - Goddard Institute for Space Studies

--"The Earth's surface temperature has risen by about 1 degree Fahrenheit in the past century, and surface temperatures have risen at a substantially greater rate than average in the past two decades. The changes observed over the last several decades are likely because of human activities, for the most part."-- The US National Academy of Sciences

--"US President George W Bush has been told by leading scientists that climate change is real and getting worse. Their White House-commissioned report is now being reviewed by the president as he prepares to face European leaders angered by his attack on the Kyoto Protocol on climate change. A panel from the National Academy of Sciences said a leading cause is emissions of carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels."--

--"Dai, with Wigley, Meehl, and Warren Washington (CCR), analyzed the ensemble simulations of the 20th and 21st century climates using PCM and forced by the historical and projected future greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol forcings. The simulations suggest similar global warming and precipitation changes as in the CCSM single realization."-- National Center for Atmospheric Research

--"First, it now seems evident that the most recent warming is caused by human activity, rather than by geological processes that were occurring before. Second, the current warming is happening much faster than it ever has."-- The National Weather Association

--"have produced the first clear evidence of human-produced warming in the world's oceans, a finding they say removes much of the uncertainty associated with debates about global warming."-- The Scripps Institute of Oceanography

--"Human beings are causing the release of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases to the atmosphere at rates much faster than the earth can cycle them."-- Woods Hole Research Center

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Quote by: rdnor I do not see it , I have done the math on natural emissions of greenhouse gasses VS man made emissions and it does not add up .

You "done the math", have you? Look at the testimonials above. THEY'VE done the math and vastly better than you could even dream of. Do you really want to mix it up with me on this? If so, go ahead... give it your best shot. :rolleyes:

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[RickSp]

Quote by: rdnor I do not see it , I have done the math on natural emissions of greenhouse gasses VS man made emissions and it does not add up . If global warming IS happening , me not driving my large gas e it . I have done the meating truck is not going to make a difference . Also using Time magazine as a source leaves me questioning your gullability . -------------------------------------------------------------

LOL. You have done the math? I guess all those poor scientists running all those global models on massively parallel super computers should shut up and listen to you, huh?

And if Time doesn't meet your standards, which publication does?

[Technosoul]

I would agree that the global warming problem has already caused major weather events and a number of other problems, even cancer.

This is one of the most important poltical topics of our age, and I wonder why this post was removed from the news section? TIME is a news source is it not?

[rcne]

By the time you read this..........it is to late for any government to do anything. The oceans will rise, the cycles will go to extremes - longer droughts, more floods, hotter summers, colder winters. Is it our destiny or is it our fate.

Whatever it is, it can't be stopped. Remember - its not nice to fool with mother nature. I'm not being ironic or sarcastic in this matter. I just don't think any action we can attempt will have any effect on this current situation.

[Mr.Vicchio]

What's breaking news about TIME doing a fear piece?

When Eric the Red landed in northern Greenland, he grew CROPS there. Right now, TIME and it's readers are fearing the loss of the ice over those very fields that were once fertile growing lands...

Yeah, the earth heats up, it cools off, it warmed more during the 20th Century prior to 1940 then it did AFTER 1940. Ya know, when C02 output went higher...

Yet we still have people freaking out over "global warming"

The climate changes, MARS is heating up for crying out loud, and there are no cars there.

[samsara15]

There is NO debate within the scientific community, only hired guns for industry. It's decided. It's like evolution. Another non-issue. Or the Big Bang. However, whenever science deviates from Right Wing / Fundamentalist thinking, the Right tries to claim there's a 'debate'.

[zynner]

The polar caps on Mars are receeding, too.

Perhaps it is a natural solar event -- like every other cooling and warming phase in history.

If so, there is nothing for humans to do but adapt.

~ zynner

[Sonart]

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Quote by: rdnor Also using Time magazine as a source leaves me questioning your gullability .

Quote by: Mr.Vicchio What's breaking news about TIME doing a fear piece?

The significance of the TIME piece is not that they were the source of the data. They weren't and they didn't claim to be. They're a journalism news magazine. More than that, they are one of the preeminent large circulation, general audience news magazines in the world. Their target market is the broadest possible demographic interested in the significant stories that define national and international current events and culture. TIME has one of the most outstanding reputations in journalism for reporting what's important and interesting, and getting it right, fair and in depth.

Over the years, TIME and it's major competitor, Newsweek, have done a variety of stories reporting what science has been finding out about global warming and the environment, making no conclusions beyond what was being reported. The significance of this story is that TIME brought together an amalgamation of many dramatic reports that have appeared over the last several months, from a variety of sources, and for the first time, made a clear and unequivicable announcement -- that the scientific community has come to a dramatic consensus: that global warming is an uncontested fact, that it is caused specifically by human activity, and to the shock of the researchers who have been studying this over many years, it's been determined that the warming phenomena is occurring at a rate much faster than previously thought.

On top of that, TIME reported that the effects of global warming, once merely predicted, have become dramatically measureable.

Specifically...

1. Polar ice caps are melting faster than ever.

2. More and more land is being devastated by drought, which has more than doubled since the 1970's.

3. Rising waters are already drowning low-lying communities, with creeping seas and increasingly savage monsoons making for deadlier floods.

4. Worldwide, weather events - storms - are increasing in ferocity due to increased water vapor in the air, due to warming.

5. Once cool and wet forests are falling victim to drought, then fire, both reducing the amount of forest carbon sinks and increasing warming.

6. Warming affects are compounding each other. Burning fossil fuels increases CO2 and warming... warming increases deforestation, reducing the earths natural ability to absorb CO2 and creating oxygen, melting more ice, glaciers and permafrost, which reflects heat, and by melting also releases trapped carbon into the air, which in turn means even more heat.

What the TIME article is reporting is that researchers are anouncing that these things are no longer simply speculation... they're varified fact.

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[Sonart]

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Quote by: zynner Perhaps it is a natural solar event -- like every other cooling and warming phase in history. If so, there is nothing for humans to do but adapt.

Solar events come in two forms... sun spots, which cycle every eleven years... and larger solar cycles, which ebb and flow in 30 to 50 years cycles.

There's all kinds of cycles...you can see those clearly here, both in the long term...



medium term, 1,000 years...



...and in the short term...



We are not in a regular cycle... we are in an ANOMLY to the regular cycles, which - COINCIDENTLY - just happens to coincide exactly with the explosion of human global industrialisation.


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[Clarence]

Quote by: rcne By the time you read this..........it is to late for any government to do anything. The oceans will rise, the cycles will go to extremes - longer droughts, more floods, hotter summers, colder winters. Is it our destiny or is it our fate. Whatever it is, it can't be stopped. Remember - its not nice to fool with mother nature. I'm not being ironic or sarcastic in this matter. I just don't think any action we can attempt will have any effect on this current situation.

you're right and wrong. It's not too late, we'll adapt. We must start now, of course. I betcha you got a few ideas where to start, too.

In a L.Ron Hubbard's last books, the hero was sent to earth to keep the natives from ruining the planet before it could be invaded according to the timetable set forth. Hang with me. He genetically creates spores that eat the greenhouse gasses and begins breeding them in the everglades. Is this even a remote possibility? Could humans make something like this? We'd have to be sure not to over-do it the other way.

Quote by: Jet Heller "The pollution in the atmosphere will heat this planet in time. I'm putting in the spores production plant in the Florida area because it's hot and will save fuel. The spores will rise into the trade winds, hit the stratosphere and circulate to both hemispheres. The spores will convert noxious gasses to oxygen and it will take an awful lot of them."

I'm looking for further quotes throughout the 8,000 page story with no index.

Jet uses mud-electric breakdown for fuel. Is that a real thing? It's a science-fiction book but this is treated as technology that exists already on our planet circa early eighties. God! I can't find anything on the web. :confused: I did find this somewhatunrelated piece

"I'd love to change the world, but I don't know what to do..."- Alvin Lee

[Mr.Vicchio]

Wow they show a spike in C02... and?

When they run climate models using KNOWN DATA, like from 1900 to today, with the models they do have to proof them... guess what?

They all show the earth should have a much HIGHER temperature. They don't know what's exactly happening.

Besides, what do you want to do about it? Sign a useless and dead treaty that does NOTHING to stop "greenhouse gasses" like Kyoto would have?

Destroy the economy for a science that cannot prove it's own theories?

[Sonart]

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Quote by: Mr.Vicchio When they run climate models using KNOWN DATA, like from 1900 to today, with the models they do have to proof them... guess what? They all show the earth should have a much HIGHER temperature. They don't know what's exactly happening.

Says who? I've just linked you to every major American scientific organization involved in climate research. Every single one says global warming is real and is caused by human activity.

You have a source for your statement, or a major scientific climate research center that says everything I've posted isn't factual?

Quote by: Mr.Vicchio Besides, what do you want to do about it?

Nothing. Let's all just roll over and give up. Yankee ingenuity and American knowhow were always overrated anyway, right?

Quote by: Mr.Vicchio Sign a useless and dead treaty that does NOTHING to stop "greenhouse gasses" like Kyoto would have?

Y'know, I looked and looked, but I didn't see the word Kyoto anywhere on this thread. This wouldn't be just a big, fat red herring, would it?

Quote by: Mr.Vicchio Destroy the economy for a science that cannot prove it's own theories?

I guess the point went right past you. Let's try again... the article was clearly stating that SCIENCE HAS PROVEN THE THEORIES AND THE PREDICTIONS ARE HAPPENING NOW, ONLY FASTER..

As to destroying the economy, this is actually a massive opportunity for the economy. America has a chance to LEAD the world into a whole new economy, based on new technologies we already have, not dependent on expensive and dwindling oil supplies - or the mideast - and make massive fortunes selling it to the world.

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[tman_ndsu08]

Here's the most important (and really, the only) argument that needs to be debated:

assuming that the average temperature of the earth is rising, so what?


The only thing that I think is supposed to be "bad" from this higher temperature is the theory that ice will melt which will cause oceans to rise.

Are they rising?

Nope.

Ocean levels have fallen, in fact.

[Arawn-ap-Hywel]

Quote by: tman_ndsu08 Here's the most important (and really, the only) argument that needs to be debated: assuming that the average temperature of the earth is rising, so what? The only thing that I think is supposed to be "bad" from this higher temperature is the theory that ice will melt which will cause oceans to rise. Are they rising? Nope. Ocean levels have fallen, in fact.

tman_ndsu08 Ah yes a simplistic view promoted by those in the US who are very scared of informing the average Joe that the changes in the earths seasons and model will be different.
There are a number of scenarios presented like all "experts" non can agree the outcome. Most radical None-Bush-Sponsored scientist agree it's occuring.
And what scares the US administrationis trying to bring expensive more energy efficient measures forwards. With the possible radical review of the freedoms of movement. Rather than how many bangs per buck to get from their gas, looking at journey as a contribution to the environment.

The hiding and saying it doen't matter is only an option for those who truely don't give monkeys about what happens to the planet and their "grandchildren" in say another hundred years. If their enough of them who feel that way then yep lets all jump into the leaming que and jump over the cliff to see what will happen.

tman_ndsu08 I'm most shocked at your lack of concern, the opportunites for world trade based upon new technologies brought about by the need to act is vast. A true Capitalists Dream!

[belverron]

Quote by: tman_ndsu08 Are they rising? Nope. Ocean levels have fallen, in fact.

Ocean levels rising twice as fast.

If ocean levels aren't rising, why has NASA designated a satellite to provide data on the phenomenon?

North Carolina islands threatened by rising ocean levels.

Tuvalu evacuates due to rising ocean levels.

So, one nation is already in the process of being subsumed and North Carolina's islands are threatened. And a simple Google of "ocean levels" turned up many sources saying that they're rising and none to the contrary. You may actually need to substantiate your claim that they're falling, tman. If you don't feel like it, I'll just back off and let Sonart bombard you with sources until you go away.

I'm sure that there are much more complex consequences of global warming than rising ocean levels, as well.

*edit*Effects of global warming courtesy of Wikipedia. No, I won't track down a real source.

[tman_ndsu08]

A bunch of .orgs.

Great.


Read the book "State of Fear".

The author quotes actual studies and graphs that show island nations near the equator (you know, the ones that actually would have to be worried about rising water levels) and the levels haven't in 30 years.

[whoracle]

You guys are going to wind up nicknaming me something foul i'm sure, but what the hell...

in response to your Time magazine statistics....

Animal waste emits ammonia, hydrogen sulfite, methane, volatile organic compounds, and particulate matter from fecal dust. These irritants enter the lungs of anyone who is nearby and can cause serious respiratory illnesses. A February 2002 study conducted by Iowa State University and the University of Iowa Study Group found that as many as 70 percent of U.S. factory farm workers suffer from acute bronchitis, and 25 percent battle chronic bronchitis.24 Even more disturbing, a recent University of Iowa study found that an astonishing 46 percent of children who live on pig factory farms with more than 500 pigs suffer from asthma. On factory farms where antibiotics are used as a growth stimulant, the asthma rate in children climbs to over 55 percent.

Furthermore, a Texas study found that cattle feedlots in the state produced 14 million pounds of particulate dust every year and that the dust “contains biologically active organisms such as bacteria, mold, and fungi from the feces and feed.” This dirty dust creates an increased risk of respiratory problems for people who work at and live near these farms.

The air just outside Los Angeles is particularly dirty because the ammonia from nearby manure pits combines with nitrogen oxide to form “particulate smog”—a substance that contributes to the development of lung and heart disease. In fact, the area has some of the worst air pollution in the country.

Amazingly, the South Coast Air Quality Management District says that reducing the ammonia pollution produced on dairy farms is more important than reducing the pollution generated by the automobile industry.

Ammonia is not the only problem, however. According to a report issued by the California Senate, a significant portion of methane and other greenhouse gas emissions are also produced by animals on factory farms.

In fact, a report by EarthSave International, based on the work of leading climate scientists, shows that vegetarianism is a far more effective strategy for addressing global warming in our lifetime than is reducing emissions from cars or power plants. Environmentalists have focused on cars and power plants because they emit carbon dioxide, which makes up the majority of greenhouse gas emissions. However, other gases, produced in smaller amounts but far more powerful at trapping heat, actually cause the majority of the Earth’s warming. Moreover, because carbon dioxide sources also emit climate-cooling aerosols, they are responsible for little to no net warming today—a fact that is well known to climate scientists but rarely discussed by environmental groups.

Go have yourself a steak...

[Sonart]

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Quote by: tman The only thing that I think is supposed to be "bad" from this higher temperature is the theory that ice will melt which will cause oceans to rise.

Do yourself a favor, tman, and actually read the article. Once again you have no idea what you're talking about. The 'Bad things' - that are already happening - are considerably more than just rising water levels.

Quote by: tman Are they rising? Nope. Ocean levels have fallen, in fact

Do you have a source for that or do you just say any damn thing that pops into your head?

OCEANS RISING FAST, NEW STUDIES FIND

Quote by: tman Read the book "State of Fear".

What, you mean Michael Chrichton's fictional novel? I read 'Jurassic Park' too... do you believe that's real as well?

Thanks but I'll stick with NASA, The American Geophysical Union, the American Meteorilogical Association, the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Weather Association, the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the National Climate Data Center.

Quote by: Whoracle in response to your Time magazine statistics....

That was actually very interesting and, as beefaholic, thought provoking. My understanding, however, is that the contribution of methane, which is indeed a far more efficient greenhouse gas than CO2, by beef cattle makes up a surprisingly significant contribution but not the overwhelming amount of methane gas that you suggest. Surprisingly - or maybe not surprisingly - one of the biggest contributors of methane is global warming itself, which is releasing methane trapped by cooler temperatures, such as once frozen tundra.

Additionally, there's ways to continue raising cattle while reducing the amounts of methane they produce. Just like we can dramatically reduce carbon emissions without having to give up our cars or live in caves.


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