New Era of Hurricanes-How much of a role does global warming play?

[dotcoma]

http://www.cnn.com/2005/TECH/science...cle/index.html

Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami, told a Senate subcommittee on Tuesday that were in a period of heightened hurricane activity that could last another decade or two.( See scientists collect data -- 1:33) The increased activity since 1995 is due to natural fluctuations (and) cycles of hurricane activity driven by the Atlantic Ocean itself along with the atmosphere above it and not enhanced substantially by global warming, he testified.

Mayfields colleague at the National Hurricane Center, meteorologist Chris Landsea, said two recent studies about global warming and hurricanes raise more questions than they answer. He added that the impact of global warming is minimal for the forseeable future. Landsea said the studies indicate global warming could increase hurricane wind speeds and rainfall by about 5 percent --100 years from now. But, he added, more study is needed, looking back at historical data and making it more compatible with modern reporting techniques.

Dont get me wrong, I am supportive of efforts to curb practices that contribute to global warming. I am just getting tired of people blaming these hurricanes on concepts such as global warming, while the severity of climate change is still questionable. I noticed numerous comments on the BBC regarding Katrina, and it seems tons of Europeans/Activists want to use this as an excuse to condemn the U.S. for its decision regarding the Kyoto Treaty.

Then again, in the same article there is some disagreement between scientists :confused:

[Sonart]

I've intentionally NOT made any statements connecting the recent hurricanes with global warming, even though I argued vociferously that anthropogenic global warming is a reality. The reason I've refrained from doing so is because, unlike anthropogenic global warming itself, there is no specific data that links these hurricanes to it.

HOWEVER, ten years ago, when I first started arguing global warming on these boards and opponents wondered what the downside of global warming was, I linked to scientists who were clearly predicting the following: Warming air would contain more moisture, more moisture laden air would lead to more intense storms. That is now happening.

Opponents have argued that global climate has always varied naturally. Yes, it has. That does NOT mean that humans can't and haven't caused variations beyond what is natural. To the contrary, I believe research has proven beyond doubt that we have.

Likewise, yes, storm intensity seems to wax and wane in natural cycles. That does NOT mean that human caused global warming is NOT contributing to more violent storms. I'm just not going to state it categorically until there's clearer evidence.

--"The strongest hurricanes in the present climate may be upstaged by even more intense hurricanes over the next century as the earth's climate is warmed by increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Although we cannot say at present whether more or fewer hurricane will occur in the future with global warming, the hurricanes that do occur near the end of the 21st century are expected to be stronger and have significantly more intense rainfall than under present day climate conditions. This expectation (Figure 1) is based on an anticipated enhancement of energy available to the storms due to higher tropical sea surface temperatures."-- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

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[RickSp]

Unless you provide quotes from the "tons of Europeans/Activists" who you allege are using recent hurricane activity to blame Bush for his Kyoto position, there is not much to debate. How many Europeans/Activists does it take to make a ton?

The argument sounds suspiciously like a straw man. On the other hand Bush is out comparing response to hurricanes to terrorism response, so any sort of weirdness is possible.

Bush Compares Responses to Hurricane, Terrorism

Putting Bush & Kyoto aside, I think all concerned agree that hurricane activity is cyclical. To what extent global warming exacerbates the problem is open to debate.

[dotcoma]

Back off Ricksp, I was merely expressing a reaction I had to a BBC Talking Point section that did in fact feature a ton of comments from activists who blamed global warming. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/talking_point/4207856.stm

Here are two of them that really made me laugh at how certain some of these people are

I am disgusted by the lack of response by those in charge in the US. This just goes to show how little planning is put into ensuring the safety of the common citizen. This also brings up a question - when is the rising problem of environmental refugees going to be addressed seriously? How many more natural disasters must occur before they realise the threat of natural disaster due to global warming is greater than that of any terrorist attack? Becca Dakini, Melbourne, Australia There are a few scars in history where political policies are laid so bare for all to see. I am struck whilst watching the apocalyptic images that this is such an occasion. Yes, this is a natural disaster, but thing have been made worse by global warming, lack of gun control and a widening wealth gap. There is intense sadness welling up around the world when watching the decline of the USA. Will the next generation of Americans be able to overcome this social, ethical and environmental decline? Declan, Stockholm

Quote by: Sonart --The strongest hurricanes in the present climate may be upstaged by even more intense hurricanes over the next century as the earths climate is warmed by increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Although we cannot say at present whether more or fewer hurricane will occur in the future with global warming, the hurricanes that do occur near the end of the 21st century are expected to be stronger and have significantly more intense rainfall than under present day climate conditions. This expectation (Figure 1) is based on an anticipated enhancement of energy available to the storms due to higher tropical sea surface temperatures.-- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Yes, how many of these factors will be human-based also remains in question. A large portion of global warming seems to come from livestock, bogs, etc (I suppose that could partially be considered human-caused by not changing how we raise animals)

[RickSp]

Quote by: dotcoma Back off Ricksp, I was merely expressing a reaction I had to a BBC Talking Point section that did in fact feature a ton of comments from activists who blamed global warming. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/talking_point/4207856.stm

Temper, temper dot. Trying to insult me, perhaps?

I only note that in the link you cite there is only one comment on Kyoto and that was by a 15 year old boy in Mauritius who didn't actually attack Bush, but who merely suggests that Bush might reconsider Kyoto. There were three comments about global warming from Europeans and three comments from American. There was also a European who claimed that global warming had nothing whatsoever to do with the hurricanes. This is out of over a hundred responses.

So I guess your measurement a "ton" is considerably different than mine.

[Sonart]

Interestingly enough, as I type this I'm listening to NPR's program, Science Friday, where they're interviewing NOAA scientist, Gerry Bell, Georgia tech scientist, Judy Curry, and author Kerry Emanuel, about this very subject.

All made the following point... the cycles you refer to affect the Atlantic hurricane season only. Worldwide, storms ebb and flow to different cycles, and worldwide, storms overall are, in fact, increasing in intensity.

Quote by: dotcoma Yes, how many of these factors will be human-based also remains in question.

Not really. There's some questions about methane from cattle, etc., but overall, the sources of greenhouse gas increases is fairly clear. And again, natural sources of greenhouse gas production are not in question... it's what we've developed the capacity to produce above and beyond what nature does that's the problem.

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[RickSp]

From this morning's NY Times:

So Who Is Right in Debate on Role of Global Warming?

So what is the state of the science behind the arguments over the message sent by Hurricanes Rita and Katrina? What is clear is that an array of leading experts on oceans and climate agree that the tropical oceans have warmed in a way that is hard to attribute to anything other than overall warming of the climate from the buildup of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse-gas emissions. It is also clear to many climate scientists and oceanographers that warmer oceans will eventually increase the intensity and rainfall of hurricanes, but not necessarily their frequency. In fact, two recent studies of hurricanes, by different scientists using different methods, claimed to detect a big rise in hurricane intensity around the world over the last several decades. But the authors of both analyses acknowledged that more data would be needed to confirm a link to human-caused warming. The murkiness arises because the relationship between long-term warming of the climate and seas is only perceptible in statistical studies of dozens of storms, not in the origin or fate of any particular storm.

It certainly appears that concerns about global warming and hurricanes are based on serious science, even if the final conclusions have yet to be formed.

[Starboy]

I am amazed at all the hoopla regarding the point of whether or not the increase in green house gasses is man made or not. They are going up. Their increase is linked to global warming. What does it matter if we are the cause or not? The question remains, should we try to stop it and if we do decide to do so how will we do that? There has been some work in this area. One of the more promising approaches:

Southern Ocean Iron Enrichment Experiment (SOIREE)

This experiment was based on a hunch published in 1993 that algae blooms were caused by iron rich desert sand blowing over and landing on the oceans. Several experiments have verified this effect and predictions can be made on the location and size of algae booms based on desert sand storms and jet stream winds. Since algae uses photosynthesis and are net CO2 to O2 producers, large algae blooms can reduce CO2 in the atmosphere. The SOIREE experiment was conducted to asses the feasibility of dispersing iron in ocean areas to see if it would work. It worked.

So the question remains. Do we want to do anything about global warming? Who cares if it manmade or not?

Starboy

[Sonart]

Quote by: Starboy Their increase is linked to global warming. What does it matter if we are the cause or not? The question remains, should we try to stop it and if we do decide to do so how will we do that?

I suspect it matters a great deal. If current global warming is caused by human activity, the assumption is that we can stop whatever it is that we're doing that's causing it.

If it's not caused by humans, how would we even begin to go about changing it if we don't know what's causing it? Your algae bloom idea sounds like a band-aid, not a solution.

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[Starboy]

I don't think you understand the implications of that paper. It proposes a method for humans to decrease CO2 in the atmosphere on a global scale not by reducing the production of CO2 by humans but by removing it from the atmosphere using photosynthesis on a vast scale. So it matters not what the cause is. There appears to be a way to reduce CO2 without reducing human emissions.

Starboy

[Samildanach]

It probably has nothing to do with global warming, most likely the USA testing their new weather control system. After all who would suspect the USA of having such a device when it hit them the hardest?...mind you did get rid of a lot of poor people that we could have used as soldiers (repulican mindset)

[RickSp]

Quote by: Samildanach It probably has nothing to do with global warming, most likely the USA testing their new weather control system. After all who would suspect the USA of having such a device when it hit them the hardest?...mind you did get rid of a lot of poor people that we could have used as soldiers (repulican mindset)

So close Sam, so close.

Japanese Mafia created Hurricane Katrina with Russian Generator!

Since Katrina, Stevens has been in newspapers across the country where he was quoted in an Associated Press story as saying the Yakuza Mafia used a Russian-made electromagnetic generator to cause Hurricane Katrina in a bid to avenge the atomic bomb attack on Hiroshima. He was a guest on Coast to Coast, a late night radio show that conducts call-in discussions on everything from bizarre weather patterns to alien abductions. On Wednesday, Stevens was interviewed by Fox News firebrand Bill O'Reilly. "The Soviets boasted of their geoengineering capabilities; these impressive accomplishments must be taken at face value simply because we are observing weather events that simply have never occurred before, never!" Stevens wrote on his Web site. "The evidence of these weapons at work found within the clouds overhead is simply unmistakable. These patterns and odd geometric shapes seen in our skies, each and every day, are clear and present evidence that our weather has been stolen from us, only to be used by those whose designs for humanity are rarely in alignment with that of the common man."

What is scary is that this is what passes for normal in Pocatello.

[Samildanach]

Well it makes sense to me, they had to direct the hurricane at their own city to get a statistical body count for their new mega weapon afterwards. It does 63.21% damage to the structures and kills 78.3245% of the population....on average. :)

[RickSp]

Quote by: Sgnt.Gorilla Does anyone have any info on Australia's changing weather patterns in the future? Is anything bad heading down under?

For what it is worth:

Impact on Climate Change on the Nature of Australia

The global warming sceptics

[Sonart]

Hurricanes - How much of a role does global warming play?

Apparently, a significant amount. The number and frequency of hurricanes has not increased, but the overall intensity has. And while, yes, hurricanes do in fact ebb and flow in multi-year cycles, those cycles are different in different oceans, and new research is showing that the rising intensity of ocean storms goes beyond the local and global cycles.

--"But frequency is not the same as intensity, and two recent studies demonstrate that difference. Two weeks ago, a team of scientists that included Curry and Holland published a study in the journal Science that surveyed global hurricane frequency and intensity over the past 35 years. On the whole, they found, the number of Category 1, 2 and 3 storms has fallen slightly, while the number of Categories 4 and 5 storms -- the most powerful ones -- has climbed dramatically. In the 1970s, there were an average of 10 Category 4 and 5 hurricanes a year worldwide. Since 1990, the annual number has nearly doubled, to 18. Overall, the big storms have grown from just 20% of the global total to 35%. "We have a sustained increase [in hurricane intensity] over 30 years all over the globe," says Holland.

Emanuel came at the same question differently but got the same results. In a study published in the journal Nature last month, he surveyed roughly 4,800 hurricanes in the North Atlantic and North Pacific over the past 56 years. While he too found no increase in the total number of hurricanes, he found that their power -- measured by wind speed and duration -- had jumped 50% since the mid-1970s. "The storms are getting stronger," Emanuel says, "and they're lasting longer.""--

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[RickSp]

Quote by: Sonart Apparently, a significant amount. The number and frequency of hurricanes has not increased, but the overall intensity has.

Hurricanes are fueled by hot water. The hotter the water, the more intense the hurricane. We have just seen two Cat 1 hurricanes grow to Cat 5 as they crossed the unusually warm water in the Gulf of Mexico. Is the rise in the water temperature due to Global Warming or some other cyclical phenomenon? I think the real answer is that no one can say for sure. Global Warming is certainly one possible explanation.

[RickSp]

Quote by: Sgnt.Gorilla For what it is worth? Thats a nice thought for the people who gave over a billion out of their own pockets for the Asian tsaumi relief.

LOL. I was referring to the value of the links, not to Australia itself. Lighten up.

I notice you didn't thank me for looking them up for you.

[RickSp]

Quote by: Sgnt.Gorilla Why would I? I thought you were being insulting. But now that you have made yourself a bit clearer, thanks.

Damn. Folks do get touchy.