Technological Infrastructure.

[ghost_stalker]

Over the past 10-15 years the power of computers had advanced rapidly virtually uninhibited. I remember when windows 95 was first released on a 133mhz computer, and the average speed for a modem was 28.8kbps and had around 1gig of memory. back then there was no worry to upgrade our infrastructure as computers didnt need anything better. And here we are 10 years later with new computer that average around 3.5ghz (or 3500mhz) have an average of 40gb of memory and run their internet application mostly through cable lines or specialized phone lines called dsl lines that even at the lowest speeds are around 1.5mbps (or 1500kbps)

This makes a computer today at least 200 times more powerful than that of 10 years ago, and the technological infrastructure require to run machines today (especially communications) at lest that much more needed to run todays machines.

And we have had little if no development of new infrastructure to support our new technology. All of our computer communications are just mere modifications of the old infrastructure not designed for use by computers.

I think that eventually our rapid movments in new technology will stop (possibly resulting in a negative economic impact, and possibly causing some form of tech stagnation) due to the lack of upgrading infrastructure and this could happen in as little as 10 years if we do not improve our infrastructure.

Already we have determined that the maximum transfer rate of most of todays cabe lines (our most powerful widely distributed communications lines) is aroun 9mbps.

At our current rate of growth a computer in tens years will want over 10 times this amount to run their machines. And with no infrastructure growth we will be limited to current technologies.

(while writing this paragraph i forgot some of the article that i read and couldnt come up with an appropriate ending)

[tman_ndsu08]

We don't need to add any new physical infrastructure except power lines.

In the future, all data will be digital and wireless.

[Jack]

Not all will be wireless.

Sensitive data will only be transmitted by line for a long time. Wireless is too insecure.

Years after the Russians developed car phones and wireless communications, they went back to land line communications for their sensitive data because they realized how easily we could intercept wireless communications. And that was in the 70's. We're even better at it today.

You do not want to do your on-line banking on a wireless connection, for example.

[Autolykos]

What if the infrastructure acquired the ability to upgrade itself?

- Rob

[tman_ndsu08]

Quote by: Isherwood Not all will be wireless. Sensitive data will only be transmitted by line for a long time. Wireless is too insecure. Years after the Russians developed car phones and wireless communications, they went back to land line communications for their sensitive data because they realized how easily we could intercept wireless communications. And that was in the 70's. We're even better at it today. You do not want to do your on-line banking on a wireless connection, for example.

Who cares if they intercept it?

Have you ever heard of encryption?

[ghost_stalker]

Anything that can be encrypted can be de-encrypted

[tman_ndsu08]

Quote by: ghost_stalker Anything that can be encrypted can be de-encrypted

That's only if you assume that your money supply is unlimited.


If you're realistic, however, there won't be any terrorist groups with enough resources to decrypt the top encryption schemes.



Also, and this is according to Dan Brown so take it with salt, it is possible in theory to make an ecryption that can't ever be decrypted, it just hasn't been done yet.

[Critter]

Quote by: ghost_stalker Over the past 10-15 years the power of computers had advanced rapidly virtually uninhibited. I remember when windows 95 was first released on a 133mhz computer, and the average speed for a modem was 28.8kbps and had around 1gig of memory. back then there was no worry to upgrade our infrastructure as computers didnt need anything better. And here we are 10 years later with new computer that average around 3.5ghz (or 3500mhz) have an average of 40gb of memory and run their internet application mostly through cable lines or specialized phone lines called dsl lines that even at the lowest speeds are around 1.5mbps (or 1500kbps)

I'd like to know which motherboards back then, on a computer with 133 MHz processor speed, supported 1 gigabyte of memory.

For that matter, please point me to a motherboard I can buy today that will support 40 gigabytes of memory. The ones I've seen have maybe 3 or 4 slots, which can maybe support a 2 gigabyte stick each.

[PatrickHenry]

Quote by: Critter I'd like to know which motherboards back then, on a computer with 133 MHz processor speed, supported 1 gigabyte of memory. For that matter, please point me to a motherboard I can buy today that will support 40 gigabytes of memory. The ones I've seen have maybe 3 or 4 slots, which can maybe support a 2 gigabyte stick each.

Good call, Critter. I think stalker is referring to the hard drives.

As to the infrastructure, stalker, are you aware that the entire world was wrapped in optical fiber in the late 90's? That the system was in fact overbuilt? http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...318EDT0111.DTL
Kinda cuts the legs out from under your thesis, don't it?

[ghost_stalker]

As to the infrastructure, stalker, are you aware that the entire world was wrapped in optical fiber in the late 90's? That the system was in fact overbuilt? http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/artic...1318EDT0111.DTL Kinda cuts the legs out from under your thesis, don't it?

Well what happens when we need something faster??
What
we think of as overdone now might me thought of too small later

[tman_ndsu08]

Quote by: Critter I'd like to know which motherboards back then, on a computer with 133 MHz processor speed, supported 1 gigabyte of memory. For that matter, please point me to a motherboard I can buy today that will support 40 gigabytes of memory. The ones I've seen have maybe 3 or 4 slots, which can maybe support a 2 gigabyte stick each.

Don't be so obtuse.

Obviously he was talking about the hard drive, genius.

[Chris]

Ouch!

So then we are looking at about how much RAM?

[ghost_stalker]

The average amount of ram on a basic computer in '95 was around 64mb, today it is around 256mb for a new computer, so in 10 years ~1.2gb?

[Chris]

of course assuming its a linear scale.

[Savant]

The last win 95 box I recall having was a 66mhz rig with 24mb ram and a turbo button....

[tman_ndsu08]

LOL @ "turbo" button.

[Samildanach]

I like the idea of a self destruct button on them. That way if people who want to come in and check/steal all your data show up at your door you could just hit the self destruct button and destroy the harddisk. Don't know quite how it would work but maybe something that explodes dust and water into the drive. There has to be a market for such a device. Mind you I wouldn't be surprised if the hard disk was starting to become obsolete in the next ten years. Solid state will take over completely at some stage.
Oh as for your encryption question...quantum encryption is here already and it (afaik) can't currently be broken by anyone.

[Chris]

When I was in the army working in Avionics, there was a device, (can't say really what it does) and it had a zero button on it. So if you got overrun you could press that button and all the secret data would be erased.

[ghost_stalker]

.

I like the idea of a self destruct button on them. That way if people who want to come in and check/steal all your data show up at your door you could just hit the self destruct button and destroy the harddisk. Don't know quite how it would work but maybe something that explodes dust and water into the drive. There has to be a market for such a device. Mind you I wouldn't be surprised if the hard disk was starting to become obsolete in the next ten years. Solid state will take over completely at some stage. Oh as for your encryption question...quantum encryption is here already and it (afaik) can't currently be broken by anyone.

Anybody can create a de-encrption program that can copy the de-encryption codes of something, and the faster computers get the faster the rate of de-encryption.

[Critter]

Quote by: tman_ndsu08 Don't be so obtuse. Obviously he was talking about the hard drive, genius.

Well, there are 300+ GB hard drives around today, so saying 40 GB is kinda understating, wouldn't ya think?