How do we know global warming is not natural climate change?

[butterbut]

I don't feel like reading through pages of bullcrap to find out so somebody please educate me.
If theyve only been measuring temprerature for a hundred years how do they know its been caused by humans? There was an Ice age. THE EARTH GOES THROUGH NATURAUL CLIMATE VARIATION. So, How do we know global warming is not naturaul climate change?

[Derach]

I agree that there is overconfidence on both sides of the question of the origin of this particular cycle of climate change ... but IMO, 'why' it is happening is less important than the fact that it is happening and what we can or should do about it.

We should focus more energy on improving the science behind climate change and it is prudent to view all theories with scepticism and putting the burden of proof on the observable science and not on conclusions that require stretches of logic that don't have substance.

Until science has evolved to the point of being able to accurately predict weather patterns on a short term basis, we shouldn't take on faith their long-term predictions with any more confidence than the short.

[Athena]

This reminds of the change in human thinking that followed Bacon and Newton. Both men pointed us in the direction of science, and the more we learned, the more confident we became that we can control anything and everything.

I think we can be confident that some gases cause a green house effect, and covering the ground with black top and concret also increases temperatures. Cutting down trees changes the climate. There is a lot we can be pretty sure of, because we can use the scientific method. However, this does not mean we have the whole explanation.

The earth is in the same place in the universe that was in 52,000 years ago, and we don't have a complete record for that time. The magnetic core reverses and is it is due to reverse. This can effect the climate. We know the magnetic core periodically reverses, but we aren't sure how this happens, nor why? Plenty of areas on earth had much more water than they do today. I have not seen a good explanation of why, and I find our present reaction to change interesting? We are reacting like the planet doesn't change, when we know it does.

Regardless of why things change, we need to determine how we will live with the change. Throwing a virgin in the volcano, or sacrficing our sheep is not going to stop the change.

[Arawn-ap-Hywel]

Quote by: Athena Regardless of why things change, we need to determine how we will live with the change.

Athena this would mean being prepared to look ahead, and by that generations ahead, whilst also fully understanding our eco system and our (human) part in it. Something the modern world has failed at doing, by modern I include those whom sacrificed sheep or virgins

Back to OP why as Athena says do we need to know if its one or the other. The planet has been dynamic in its ability to change for eons, some of which us pathetic bipeds had not even begun to polute ( and some cannot even comprehend) We can enjoy all the measurements and improved timings but things and other humans will be destroyed. As for the earth well it'll still revolve (unles of course some nutter starts a nuclear explosion test of their national armoury

[butterbut]

So if its naturaul whether change, then what can we possibly do about it?

[mark3748]

Quote by: butterbut So if its naturaul whether change, then what can we possibly do about it?

Nothing, nor should we. All we can really do is plan and adapt.

It gets warmer, it get's colder, we as animals living on the planet either adapt or we die. Since we have large brains we have the odds in our favor compared to most, but in the end it's all the same.

Since humans can live anywhere from the cold in Barrow, Alaska and the arctic circle to the deserts of the middle east and the Sahara, I don't think it will be a big issue, unless you believe in things such as "The Day After Tomorrow."

[Winter wind]

I don't feel like reading through pages of bullcrap to find out so somebody please educate me. If theyve only been measuring temprerature for a hundred years how do they know its been caused by humans? There was an Ice age. THE EARTH GOES THROUGH NATURAUL CLIMATE VARIATION. So, How do we know global warming is not naturaul climate change?

I don't, but I listen to experts. The single climatologist I've talked to says that the increase is a unexplainable phenomenon, because the climate changes should take centuries to go up a degree and not years.

[Derach]

the human impact of climate change should be addressed. It is obvious that a dramatic warming or cooling of the environment could have catastrophic effects. Whether the change is caused by man, God, or random events of the universe is irrelevant to the fact that we must develop techniques for humans to deal with climate change. It doesn't really matter why it changes as much as predicting accurately how it will change and what we should do about it (science/politicians have done neither).

[Praxius]

Quote by: butterbut So if its naturaul whether change, then what can we possibly do about it?

As mentioned, absolutely nothing... if we as humans attempt to make our earth stay as we see fit, then we will only end up destroying the planet and using up all of its resources which it would normally replinish after drastic climate changes.

THe Scientist mentioned above who said it was an "unexplainable phenomenon" has automatically limited his own logic and understanding by labeling it as such.... every is explainable given time.... all scientists should understand this. Him mentioning that this is a freak occurance and can not be explained is kinda silly, just because we don't normally see huge drastic temp changes within a few days most times, doesn't mean they don't happen.

This change of increased tempratures over the last few decades could increase much faster within just a few months and then vacume into a deep freeze within days. Heck another issue towards the "Global Warming" theory is:

Absolute Zero and the Conquest of Cold

The coldest temperature ever recorded on Earth was -128.6 F (-89.2 C) in the winter --on July 21, 1983 -- in Vostok, Antarctica. That's so cold that hot water poured onto the snow will freeze before it even hits the ground. When living creatures are exposed to below-freezing temperatures like this, ice can form in their blood vessels, causing the vessels to stretch or even burst. Frozen ice in the blood stream also steals water from the blood cells, killing them. Without water, and with sharp points on the ice crystals all around, frozen cells can be broken and destroyed. (Have you ever seen a contact lens that's been left out to dry? It often rips in half -- that's what can happen to cells when they lose their water.)

Besides all that, that's quite a cold temprature for recent years which we should be in a global warming, if that theory is correct.

But that is a good example of just how cold it can get here on earth, as there is also the natural occurance of cloud mass moving out of a cold area and allow much of the retained heat to be pulled out into space.... which in itself is quite cold.
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What I feel is going to occur in the next little while, is major climate and enviromental / terrain adjustments, with major earthquakes which shift land mass, followed or started by various volcanic activity around the world, which will also increase more volcanic cloud formations along with our existing pollution, which in turn will speed up temprature change to a higher then normal effect.

Hurricanes are fed by warmer seas and are considdered Nature's air conditioner as they cool down the global tepratures in the air and sea the more there are in a year...... It has been noticed that since the 70's hurricanes have gone from many small ones per year, to a few but more powerful class 4 and 5 hurricanes per year. When the tempratures are somewhat moderate, you get little ones here and there..... but if the overal tempratures of the planet are high, then you're going to have bigger hurricanes to counter the heat.

Hurricane fuel As a hurricane builds up energy, it feeds off heat from the water. As water heats up, it turns into water vapor. As water vapor rises, it cools, condenses into rain, and releases heat that fuels the hurricane. The higher the vapor rises, the more heat is released, and the more intense the storm. From their data, Webster and his colleagues determined that global sea surface temperatures have increased by half a degree Celsius since 1970. As a result, waters worldwide are primed for making hurricanes. "Hurricane fuel, so to speak, is water vapor that rises from the surface. Small increases in sea surface temperature give you rapidly more vapor, making hurricanes more intense," Webster said. While most scientists agree that global sea surface temperatures have increased, they don't all agree on what drives this change. One school of thought is that long term variability of ocean temperatures drives the change, and that right now the oceans are in a warm phase unrelated to climate change.

Increase in Major Hurricanes Linked to Warmer Seas | LiveScience

"This research provides evidence that hurricanes play an important role and may be one of the missing pieces in the climate modeling puzzle." The research also suggests that hurricanes cool the tropics, forming in response to higher temperatures. "Warm water fuels hurricanes, which have been shown to leave cold water in their wake," said Huber.

Hurricanes may help cool climate

These hurricanes will also in turn filter and disapate the existing pollution and volcanic clouds through the eye of their storms and into space, much like the artic effect mentioned above. Not only do we have trees and plant life to counter pollution effects, but there are also our hurricanes which we can thank for keeping things as stable as they have been recently.

But be prepared for some major hurricanes..... My predictions on the study of these things, is that we're going to have a very bumpy ride for the next couple of decades.... but will all the above occur (Best case scenario) or will the hurricanes go overboard and possibly cause a "Day After Tomorrow" incident on the planet and produce another Ice Age? Both are possible in theory, but Massive Hurricanes are a sure thing for our lives in the future, no matter if you follow the Climate Change Theory or the Global Warming Theory.

[rez]

Quote by: butterbut I don't feel like reading through pages of bullcrap to find out so somebody please educate me.

bwwwahahahahaha. This mentality sure does explain many of the opinions you share on this message board.

[Zeebadee]

Quote by: butterbut So if its naturaul whether change, then what can we possibly do about it?

Using energy generates heat, no matter what the source of the energy is. The facts are that humans are using more and more energy, many thousands of megawatts worth. Even ignoring the greenhouse gases we produce, we are pumping heat into the atmosphere. The base changes in the earth's temperature may be natural, but humans are certainly contributing to those changes. We may not be able to counter those natural global warming tendencies, but we should make some effort to stop contributing so much to them.

[triad]

Ah yes, the infamous human instinct when we see a problem, "What can we do about it?"


Lets break it down:


Global warming is a natural cycle the earth goes through..?.. perhaps. It would make sense that the earth may go through periods of extreme cold to stable to extreme hot then back to extreme cold. Of course by "periods" I am referring to millions of years. This would in turn replenish the earth's resources and keep it alive - whether or not we survive - I don't think the earth really cares. Maybe once an ice age occurs after the extreme heat kills off everything, once the ice age ends a new generation of completely different life forms will evolve and take better care of the planet. It is possible the earth is going through these cycles to find a stable planet of life that can live off of it's resources without totally pillaging it. "A mind of it's own" sort of idea.

Here is the kicker: We don't know.

However, like Praxius explained.. everything can be explained with time. We clearly don't have enough data to come to a conclusion on this issue, and the media putting everyone into Armageddon panic mode doesn't really motivate anyone to stop and think - but more like freak out and drop everything they're doing. I hear a lot of "within 50 -100 years" we're all gonna die off due to global warming... pfff. Come on people, we're an extremely young life form.. we're not that close to edge yet. I say we have at least 500-1000 years to continue our current activity without a doomsday. However, in that time we will have used our science to come up with a conclusion and a solution.


I'm not a scientist, or even smart for that matter... I am just here for the ride - but if someone can give me a definite answer to whats really going on, I'll make the necessary adjustments to my life to be proactive against global warming. Sadly, I think with the priority-confused leaders we have running all the countries we're not going to get that answer for a very long time. Oh well - enjoy your short moment on earth called life and don't fear the end that someone only "thinks" is nearing. Oh and listen to lots of music.. Got meh global warmin' shades on... bring it.

[xyzer]

Agree we humans have to adaptto climate change. This reference
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Evans-CO2DoesNotCauseGW.pdfconfirms that anthropogenic causes are now being challenged by more recent data and studies(plus logic) Natural factors vastly out weigh human factors in climate dynamics.

!The globe hasn't warmed much in the last 5 or 6 years even though CO2 emissions are skyrocketing The 'Gorescare' is being disproved.
Unfortunately the press and the pundits who make a living off sensationalism have created a climate "surge" that will lead to haasty decision making and cost us all?

Another source...Study says humans not heating up the planet (OneNewsNow.com)

[Winter wind]

However, like Praxius explained.. everything can be explained with time. We clearly don't have enough data to come to a conclusion on this issue, and the media putting everyone into Armageddon panic mode doesn't really motivate anyone to stop and think - but more like freak out and drop everything they're doing. I hear a lot of "within 50 -100 years" we're all gonna die off due to global warming... pfff. Come on people, we're an extremely young life form.. we're not that close to edge yet. I say we have at least 500-1000 years to continue our current activity without a doomsday. However, in that time we will have used our science to come up with a conclusion and a solution. I'm not a scientist, or even smart for that matter... I am just here for the ride - but if someone can give me a definite answer to whats really going on, I'll make the necessary adjustments to my life to be proactive against global warming. Sadly, I think with the priority-confused leaders we have running all the countries we're not going to get that answer for a very long time. Oh well - enjoy your short moment on earth called life and don't fear the end that someone only "thinks" is nearing. Oh and listen to lots of music.. Got meh global warmin' shades on... bring it.

But what if your wrong? I'd rather try and divert this problem and look like an idiot rather then be dead.

I say we have at least 500-1000 years to continue our current activity without a doomsday.

write down the exact date and time you said that.

I'm not saying your wrong, I'm saying that you don't have any evidence to back up what your saying. And the climatologists I talk to all tell me that the climate is getting warmer far faster then is natural. The temperature is supposed to increase in increments of a degree in a century, not in a few years.

[mark3748]

Quote by: Winter wind I'm not saying your wrong, I'm saying that you don't have any evidence to back up what your saying. And the climatologists I talk to all tell me that the climate is getting warmer far faster then is natural. The temperature is supposed to increase in increments of a degree in a century, not in a few years.

The problem is that we don't even know what change in temperature is natural in the climate. We aren't even sure of all the causes of global warming.CO2 isn't a very good greenhouse gas, water-vapor is far more effective, sun-spot activity causes temperature change, and countless other things effect the climate.

I do agree that we should do our part, not because of the reasons given, but because the earth is our home, and there is no reason not to respect it. Don't believe all the doomsaying, the fact is that there is no eminent danger in the next 10-15-20+ years, and by that time we will have a better understanding whether the problem actually even exists and if it does, hopefully a solution.

What really needs to be done to help curb carbon emissions is to get rid of as many coal power plants as possible, and replace them with nuclear power. Oh, and stop using recycled paper products, for the reasons here:

Trees are the Answer

[xyzer]

And the climatologists I talk to all tell me that the climate is getting warmer far faster then is natural. The temperature is supposed to increase in increments of a degree in a century, not in a few years.

But the most recent evidence shows that in the past decade the climate has not been warming at a rapid rate even as CO2 is increasing? It has slowed and even cooled?

Besides recent studies have shown that global temps have not warmed equally in all levels/areas of the atmosphwe? There have also been suggestions that surface measurement of temps in some isolated areas has been very inexact, sparse and possibly erroneous?

The wisest response is we just are not sure enough to make any major decisions..which the UN and some in Bali would like to make?

[switch_617]

if things have been evolving on this planet long b4 us nd it expected it will continue long after us the it could be natural climate change cuz we have naturaly evolved into the industrual society we are now. we evoled and came up with the gizmos nd gadgets we have