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| technę Posts: 2,459 | Evaluating a Scientific Claim I have been a member of volconvo since the websites inception and have always marveled over different people's debate tactics. I tend not to be as educated as most of the adults on these forums, but I do make an attempt to formulate a well founded opinion based on logic. Most of my interests revolve around the subject of science because of my particular interest in the methods behind the subject itself. While debating on volconvo for several years I have observed that some people do not value science as much as others do, and in my opinion, causes confusion within the debate. For this debate I want people to describe their method of investigation and show how their method accurately describes the natural world better then another person's method. Now I know we are not scientists given the luxury to have a laboratory to test our claims, but we are on the internet and can investigate scientific journals and scholars who make claims. My reasoning behind this is because I see such large disagreement over matters such as evolution, stem cell research, global warming etc... What I find within these debates is that one side applies a higher level of skepticism toward one claim then another claim, but never provides a reason for their selection. For example Vicchio and xyzer is skeptical toward global warming. They disagree with certain scientist’s observations and generalizations. They seem to be using a different type of inductive/deduction reasoning then others. My goal within this thread is to make users think about the scientific method and how it is a vital component in formulate debate about a certain scientific claim. We should start using the proper vocabulary to articulate why some claims are better then other claims. Here are some of the basic tenets to science that I think most people seem to be ignoring within scientific debates (please disagree, correct me, or add to this information) In order for science to gain knowledge about the natural world a certain process called the scientific method is used. Here are the steps to the scientific method. Step 1: Observe and generalize Step 2: Formulate hypothesis Step 3: Make a testable prediction Step 4: Experiment or observe Step 5: Modify the hypothesis as necessary and repeat steps 3 and 4. “A hypothesis cannot be proved true; it can only be supported or disproved.” I feel as though this sentence carries a lot of weight and may sway one’s understanding of science in different directions causing disagreement. The way I understand this statement is that scientific explanations are a process of elimination. We use the explanation that has testable predictions in which can be shown to be true or false. The prediction that is true is the better explanation. Now make sure to note that the better explanation does not mean it can not change. One of the most important criteria for an explanation is that it provides new discoveries and better explanations that grow from past explanations. Here are some steps I have studied to be useful in evaluating scientific claims. 1.) State the article’s primary claim. 2.) List the evidence provided to support the claim. 3.) Examine each piece of evidence to see whether it meets a basic standard of scientific acceptability. Now if a claim seems to fail these tests, then there is no reason to accept the scientific claim. What I fail to see from some people is why their understanding is better then another person’s. Maybe we could use the global warming debate as an example. We do not have to go into detail like people have done within the actual global warming thread. The point is to just simply state the basic disagreement while using the scientific method. I just want to see how people leap to conclusions, resist new ideas and how much they are driven by self-interest. (if people think this thread should be moved to the philosophy forum, then go ahead and move it) I'm the thought that never crossed my mind. |
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| Get the f*** down! Posts: 91 | During an online debate I will do web searches and look at as many relevant articles as I can be bothered to. If there is a lot of contradictory information between the articles I delve a bit deeper. I prefer to break it down to truths about chemical interactions or some such basic detail that will allow me to understand, more thoroughly, what is being asserted. I then use my own logic to come to my own conclusion. The debate, whether on this site or otherwise, is really a testing ground for my reasoning rather than a forum for me to persuade others. If I can't fully explain something to someone then I have to read up on it, and if someone explains something to me in a way that I take issue with but can't argue with then more research is nessessary. I'm always open to persuasion but I have to persuade myself. I try to get to the truth even if it is uncomfortable. |
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| Sedimentary Rock Posts: 7 | in response to rez. Firstly any such "tenets of science" are always inevitably insufficient for either describing what science is or what science is not. In particular, the scientific method is a method that can be followed by anyone in any pursuit of knowledge, but it does not necessarily make that pursuit scientific. Futhermore, scientists have a hard time agreeing on a specific method which scientific enquiry should follow, meaning that choosing one particular method may rule out half the scientists. Take for example creationism. I'm not going to argue the point, but creationism isn't a science. But, by the methodologist demarcation criteria, if a creationist went and tested all their hyptheses, then they'd be a scientist. Whereas astronomers cannot, in general, formulate or construct repeatable experiments, due to the nature of their field of study, making it difficult for them to then be classified as scientists. So whereas there is a method some scientists use, and all scientists base their view on observation and experimentation as well as theory, this is not quiet what makes science "science". Also, an observation or experiment does not necessarily force a decision to be made between two theories, nor present a definite requirement that a modification or rejection of a theory be made. The famous experiment regarding the bending of a light ray around a massive object highlights a downfall of Newton's theory of gravity, but does not call for it to be rejected and replaced. Finally, I'm not sure I understand what you mean by: Quote:
Take for example, "Why did the glass break?" "It fell" This is insufficient as an explanation because it is not generally regarded that all glass breaks when it falls, we're left asking why does falling cause the glass to break. A better explanation would be: "It fell and landed on a sufficiently hard surface at a sufficiently swift pace" even better would be to make sure you state the "glass breaks on hard surfaces when hit hard enough" law - law in the sense that it is largely indisputable. Of course, you could ask "why did the glass fall" but this has very little to do with it breaking. To claim that this leads to further enquiry, thus making it a good explanation, fails to differntiate between bad and good explanations. | |
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| Volcanic Erupter Posts: 4,375 | rez I take a simple approach to it: I ask if I can observe it, and if I can observe the same result consistently under the same experimental conditions. I've observed evolution. I've observed the Earth being round. I've been able to show both to others, thus making the evidence both consistent and generalized for all observers. I'm also very careful to ask contextual questions. Now or last week? In front of me or in Podunk, Idaho? Part of my real life job is to ask specific questions and narrow things down to their simplest parts. That's how I approach things logically. I ask if anyone can see the same thing repeatedly, and I ask if the context is accurate. |
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| formerly Isherwood Location: San Diego, CA Posts: 12,999 | Quote:
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The Forum Rules Radical Atheist Heathen Queer Let's agree to respect each others views, no matter how wrong yours may be. (Ashleigh Brilliant) | ||
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| Sedimentary Rock Posts: 7 | isherwood, whether or not prediction is part of the "scientific method" it has very little to do with what counts as an adequate explanation. If you disagree, could you explain the connection? As to the necessity of repeatable experiments. I belive merely saying that an experiment must be reproducable is insufficient. If a purported "one shot" experiment can be explained by the theory that also explains other reproducable phenomenon, and the unlikeliness of the "one shot" experiment, then the one shot add scientific credit to the theory. Take for example good ol' quantum tunneling. I'm sure you've all heard some physics crackpot claim that if they threw a ball at a wall an infinite amount of times, then it would, one some occaisions, go straight through the wall. Now say someone set up this experiment, and observered a ball going straight through the wall. This experiment cannot easily be repeated because of the unlikliness of the phenomenon, however, it is this unlikliness that provides support for quantum theory. If you don't like quantum theory you can use any rare event (such as the planets' - or other celestial bodies' alignment) or any statistical governed theory (evolution, radioactive decay etc). So if we can perform a "one shot" experiment that shows someone can read minds, do we adopt a parapsychology theory? No, the fact that it is a one shot experiment supports the falsehood of parapsychology because the theory cannot account for the unliklihood of the outcome. Simple probability theory however, can explain the outcome. |
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| Volcanic Erupter Posts: 8,663 | I proposed a couple of ideas in the science section and rather then someone disproving the potential "fact" that the idea created they debated other aspects of the post. Perhaps the grammer or a word that was not spelled correctly. One guy debated it was not a theory because science has a "special meaning" in their dictionary that is different then the layman dictionary (which stated that a theory is a "speculation"". And then they demand... "your idea is no good because you presented no physics to support it". Why is that a requriement? Why not other forms of evidence? And then they make some comment like "you need more education to talk about such a scientific matter". When our personal background in education is not the topic of debate. Most of the time they counter one idea with another "theory" that they like better and because they like a past idea better then they feel the new idea is unfounded because it is not supportive of the old idea they favor. Now I have a very odd system for my scientific discoveries about the natural world. Which I discovered somewhat by random accident. First I use the natural world as the first laborary. I go into the woods and then I find a comfortable place to sit down and I become very still. In short order my lack of motion allows the creatures and events in nature to carry on as if I am not present. And I observe. This is on you list. (or is the "labortary"... anyway "the Lab". ) 1. Observe. Then I allow the brain to be my labortary because a brain can operate like a computer to generate ideas relative to the in-put provided by the observations made. Then the memory might bring up past ideas that "match" or support the new idea and that combination can produce a "concept". This is an automatic type of process and not one directed by the motive to prove a particular idea. But now comes the testing of the new idea with it's supportive data from the memory. First I use my own logic to think of why the new idea might not be correct, or what doubts might need clearing up before it can be presented for debate. This is not like "talking to my self" but more like trying to look at it from all angles. Then I might test run it by mentioning it to someone who I think could present a good case why the idea is no good. I take his/her remarks and then I find some reasonable explanation to couter-act those comments so that in the final presentation I got "all bases covered". Or I might have to drop the idea because the 3rd party in-put made more sense. That is if I go the whole 9 yards and do not short cut that method with an impulsive posting. Then I post the idea but of course I have no physics or experiments that were conducted in a laborary environment to offer to the volcano fires of debate. Is such a method too far outside of the pale? |
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| technę Posts: 2,459 | Quote:
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Step 4: Experiment or observe Step 5: Modify the hypothesis as necessary and repeat steps 3 and 4. Quote:
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I'm the thought that never crossed my mind. | ||||||
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![]() SUSPENDED (1 Week) Posts: 3,571 | Quote:
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| mostly harmless Location: USA Posts: 1,282 | To Rez: I don't have a lab, so I have to accept most scientific claims based on trust in authority. I use rules of thumb: The major non-controversial theories that are simple enough that I can understand "from the armchair" also tend to be repeatable in classrooms. If it's in an elementary textbook, then I feel certain that the claim has practical value. The most recent theories tend to be complicated, so I don't waste a lot of time with them. Instead, I let others decide if they are worthwhile and hope for products. I tend to put low weight to 'evidence' that comes from complex computer simulations. Anecdotal experience with past simulations accounts for this low certainty. This is especially true for chaotic systems, like global weather. I consider theories that explain the distant past to be interesting but highly uncertain. The claim 'we are evolving' gets higher certainty than 'we evolved from X'. I don't question the promise of technology that is widely distributed. I tend to have a 'wait and see' attitude on tech that is not yet developed. I may review it and think 'gee whiz' or 'yeah right' depending on how far-fetched it is. If some invention has great practical value to the masses but isn't being mass produced then it trips the BS meter in my mind. I'd rather upgrade something considered uncertain to a more certain status later on than downgrade something I thought was certain to the BS status. The former makes me feel like I'm learning. The latter makes me feel like I'm gullible. I always take dietary studies with a grain of salt (even if they are low sodium diets). ![]() |
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| Igneous Magma Posts: 687 | Quote:
Many aspects of astronomy CAN be tested. For example, the red shift PROVING the universe is expanding, the way light (which is not polarised coming from the sun) becomes polorised as it reflects off a body in space, tells us much about the composition of that body. The "wobble" of certain stars tell us that somthing is efecting the star's rotation, and since it would take a massive body to do so, we can literally "prove" the existance of planets around distand stars. Astronomy PROVED that the Earth and the other planets revolved around the Sun, which is what got Galileo in so much trouble with the Catholic church. Astronomy PROVED that a comet hit Jupiter, and the resulting plumes, PROVED much of what Jupiter's atmosphere was made of (MUCH more water than we previously thought for example). Black holes, and now "dark matter" were once crazy theories, but now have been proven. The Hubble telescope has taken pictures of "star nurseries" in distand places, PROVING how and where stars form in the first place. Just because it can't be physically touched, does not mean it can't be observed and anylized. Big Jr is watching you! | |
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![]() Homo sapiens Posts: 1,980 | Quote:
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Must I? Whew! Scared me for a moment. Quote:
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Nope! Certainly not science. How on earth could those astronomers ever claim to be doing science? Quote:
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At least we agree that your example is insufficient. Quote:
Well, that's true. You have given a really bad explanation that is represented as a good explanation. Of course, the question is largely irrelevant in the first place. We pretty much understand why glass breaks when it falls, but I'll bet that you don't know why a glass flask can drive nails like a hammer and break from minor impact the the inside. I do. I even know how such flaske are used. As the Government of the United States of America is not, in any sense, founded on the Christian religion;... --From Article 11 of the Treaty of Tripoli passed unanimously by the Senate 1797 | |||||||||||
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![]() Homo sapiens Posts: 1,980 | Indeed, it does. If the observation cannot be repeated then it is anecdote and has no scientific import. Hypotheses become theories only because other scientists can repeat the outcome under the same circumstances. As the Government of the United States of America is not, in any sense, founded on the Christian religion;... --From Article 11 of the Treaty of Tripoli passed unanimously by the Senate 1797 |
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![]() Homo sapiens Posts: 1,980 | Quote:
What ignorant balderdash. The impact of Shoemaker-Levy was an observation. It was predicted based on old fashioned Newtonian physics. Quote:
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You seem to have a problem in differentiating an observation from proof. Observation and analysis are not the same as proof. I have observed vast expanses of water before me as I drove across the Nevada salt flats. I understand why there was no water there. I don't jump to the conclusion that there is a vast ocean that can only be seen from miles away. I observed it, but it isn't proof that it exists. As the Government of the United States of America is not, in any sense, founded on the Christian religion;... --From Article 11 of the Treaty of Tripoli passed unanimously by the Senate 1797 | ||||
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| Igneous Magma Posts: 687 | Quote:
Galileo PROVED that the planets went around the Sun by OBSERVING that Venus and Mercury had PHASES, but the other three planets he could see did not. He built a model and OBSERVED the same thing, PROVING that not only must the bodies be circling a central light source, but that the Earth "his relative position" was third in line. Now we have PROVEN Galileo right through the use of probes and sattelites, and by astronauts actually going into space. If you don't like what science "proves" fine, but don't insult those who accept it for what it is. TRUTH. Big Jr is watching you! | |
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![]() Homo sapiens Posts: 1,980 | Quote:
By the way, Kelvin proved that the earth could be no more than 4 million years old. That's TRUTH? Are more recent scientists misguided? Apparently they don't know the TRUTH. By the way, even Wikipedia says, "Science does not and can not produce absolute and unquestionable truth. Rather, science tests some aspect of the world and attempts to provide a precise, unequivocal framework to explain it." You might read Chalmers, A.F. 1999. What is this thing called Science? Hackett Publishing Company, Inc. Indianapolis/Cambridge. 266p Curd, Martin & Cover, J.A. (eds.) 1998. Philosophy of Science: The Central Issues. W.W. Norton & Company. New York/London. 1379p. or the first section of Strahler, Arthur N. 1987. Science and Earth History - The Evolution/Creation controversy. Prometheus Books. Amherst, New York. 552p The last book has an excellent explanation of science, and then contrasts it to pseudoscience. It is always better to learn what you are talking about before you speak. As the Government of the United States of America is not, in any sense, founded on the Christian relig |