Overpopulation is not a myth

[Flea_Bit_Monkey]

Quote by: brien Is this because China doesn't have the geography or because the population is concentrated in cities rather than dispersed over the countryside?

China's population is not increasing, and having spent lots of time in china I can tell you they are not suffering from overpopulation, just from bad government.

[Morgan_Freeman]

Quote by: Nathan Struth A population that is starving and that's going down is undergoing the process of overpopulation.

That's one theoretical possibility, obviously. Another possibility is that the population is denying itself food. It's pretty obvious which is the case with humans.

[The Architect]

China.org

China's population will reach 1.557 billion in 2043 and after that the country will approach a zero population growth rate, and the problems of newborn sex disproportion and population aging should also be handled seriously, officials and experts have said.

Europe should be worrying, the number or birth rates in order to keep a stable population( the same #) is around 2.1 births per women.
European Birth Rates Reach Historic Low
The American birth rate is around 2.1. Even with that number expert still say the population grows about 3.3 million per year, one of the highest in the developed world.

[Nathan Struth]

Morgan what population denies itself food? Human nature doesn't permit that. People will go for food whenever they can.

[Prolix]

As witnessed by global warming...of course overpoulation will be an issue in our lifetimes. Perhaps the issue here in the U.S. is not so much overpopulation but lifestyle. We are depleting our natural resources and not doing much to conserve them, unless you count yourself among the "conservationists" because you drive a hybrid SUV. Unfortunately our habit is to take a look at a problem long after it has become an issue of dire consequences. Such is the state of a country of entitlement.

[Morgan_Freeman]

Quote by: Nathan Struth Morgan what population denies itself food?

Any human population that is starving is denying itself food.

Excellent example: the government of thailand taking a whole bunch of rice from its farmers and sending it all to Japan (where it wasnt needed or wanted), causing starvation in Thailand.

Quote by: Nathan Struth Human nature doesn't permit that. People will go for food whenever they can.

That obviously isn't the case in places like India. Human nature, my friend, permits a great number and variety of obscenities.

[Pooeypants]

Quote by: Morgan_Freeman Any human population that is starving is denying itself food.

And what about those in Africa where there's famine/drought and there really isn't enough food in the country?

[Morgan_Freeman]

Quote by: Pooeypants And what about those in Africa where there's famine/drought and there really isn't enough food in the country?

Wars, dictatorships, political chaos... Africa has much bigger problems than food supply.

Read: Famine - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

As observed by the economist Amartya Sen, famine is usually a problem of food distribution and poverty, rather than an absolute lack of food. In many cases, such as the Great Leap Forward, North Korea in the mid-1990s, or Zimbabwe in the early-2000s, famine can be caused as an unintentional result of government policy. Famine is sometimes used as a tool of repressive governments as a means to eliminate opponents, as in the Ukrainian famine of the 1930s. In other cases, such as Somalia, famine is a consequence of civil disorder as food distribution systems break down.

The most serious famines have been caused by a combination of drought, misguided economic policies, and conflict. The 1983–85 famine in Ethiopia, for example, was the outcome of all these three factors, made worse by the Communist government's censorship of the emerging crisis. In Sudan at the same date, drought and economic crisis combined with denials of any food shortage by the then-government of President Gaafar Nimeiry, to create a crisis that killed perhaps 250,000 people—and helped bring about a popular uprising that overthrew Nimeiry. Numerous factors make the food security situation in Africa tenuous, including political instability, armed conflict and civil war, corruption and mismanagement in handling food supplies, and trade policies that harm African agriculture. An example of a famine created by human rights abuses is the 1998 Sudan famine.

[Gods_Mercenary]

Overpopulation will lead to larger wars, which will solve the problem for a while! My my, we are designed with a defense mechanism against overpopulation, our tendency to enjoy killing each other.

[Keith Hamburger]

Quote by: Morgan_Freeman Wars, dictatorships, political chaos... Africa has much bigger problems than food supply. Read: Famine - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Absolutely. Another thing, that you didn't point out, that those countries in Africa, often when they are experiencing "famine" conditions, when foreign aid in the form of foodstuffs is sent, that aid gets redirected by the government to places that don't need it as badly, or it's held and sold for profit by members of that government.

And the famine continues.

Perhaps, in some cases, the government wants famine for its own benefit? Naw, that could never happen.

Keith

[Nathan Struth]

interesting Morgan, you hold a good point, but I meant a system with no influential government. THe argument is if overpopulation exists. Let me limit it to humans without government or law interference. I hold that overpopulation does exist and they'll eventually run out of space to farm. They won't go into outer space because launching things that heavy is rediculous and obscene.

[Gods_Mercenary]

Launching what is too heavy? humans? vor just a bunch of humans, because if we can put a few humans into outer space, in theiory we can put a lot more.

[Mozart1220]

Quote by: Morgan_Freeman But we weren't talking about ducks, were we? We were talking about humans. As I already said, humans are not dumb animals. We have the power to alter our environment. We can control at will the "carrying capacity" of the Earth.

There are two terms you need to get up close and personal with.


FINITE

EXPONENTIAL


The Earth is a FINITE place. With FINITE resources, no matter how much manipulation we are capable of.

The population is growing EXPONENTIALLY, so the problem grows faster every day.

Here's another word to ponder.

DENIAL.

[Keith Hamburger]

Quote by: Mozart1220 The population is growing EXPONENTIALLY, so the problem grows faster every day.

I think you need to justify and document that assertion for current population growth. As far as I know, the deriative of the growth, the change in growth rate, has turned such that it actual growth of population is moderating.

Exponential growth usually implies that the rate of growth is dependent on the existing population, greater population means greater rate of growth. As our population has increased in the past few decades, however, the rate of growth has decreased.

Philosophers and doomsayers have been predicting the collapse of society because of the limits of Earth's finite resources since, at least, Malthus. Usually by misinterpreting the data, or using old results, or, by ignoring the changes in society that occur due to such pressures.

This is not to say that overpopulation is nothing we should ever worry about, and we may be approaching overpopulation in some regions of the world, but, in regards to the entire Earth's carrying capacity, we're not really getting close yet.

Keith

[W.J. Wilczek]

We are living in a Malthusian nightmare; but there seems little that the world can (or will) do about it. Darwin held out hope that man would evolve into a more perfect species, but feared that he was already doomed to self-destruction before getting there. Man may be master on this planet; but we are rapidly laying waste to the land and the sea on which we depend for life's subsistence; for when this goes, then, as surely as the earth turns, so shall we go also.

[Nathan Struth]

It's happening in NK right now, they have no land to farm and their people starve.

[Gods_Mercenary]

Because they reject western technology and aid, SK is doing a fine job of keeping up with its population. I feel that we will continue to squeeze more out of the land for far longer than you think.

[Mozart1220]

Quote by: Keith Hamburger I think you need to justify and document that assertion for current population growth. As far as I know, the deriative of the growth, the change in growth rate, has turned such that it actual growth of population is moderating. Exponential growth usually implies that the rate of growth is dependent on the existing population, greater population means greater rate of growth. As our population has increased in the past few decades, however, the rate of growth has decreased. Philosophers and doomsayers have been predicting the collapse of society because of the limits of Earth's finite resources since, at least, Malthus. Usually by misinterpreting the data, or using old results, or, by ignoring the changes in society that occur due to such pressures. This is not to say that overpopulation is nothing we should ever worry about, and we may be approaching overpopulation in some regions of the world, but, in regards to the entire Earth's carrying capacity, we're not really getting close yet. Keith

Populations grow exponentially. That's how it works. And maybe there is plenty of "room to stand" on the planet, we are already seeing great shortages in fresh water in the west and subdivisions are replacing farmland in Iowa at a frightening rate.

Now if YOU want to live in Antarctica, or on the side of a mountain in the Andes fine, but it's just not a viable option for most people.


A friend of mine is a math teacher, and he did a thing in a class where they figured that at thier current birth rate, China could line up the population one foot apart and march them into the sea, and they NEVER would run out of people, and China has population control laws.


Saying overpopulation is not a grave and immediate problem is just delusional.

[Keith Hamburger]

Quote by: Mozart1220 Populations grow exponentially. That's how it works. And maybe there is plenty of "room to stand" on the planet, we are already seeing great shortages in fresh water in the west and subdivisions are replacing farmland in Iowa at a frightening rate. Now if YOU want to live in Antarctica, or on the side of a mountain in the Andes fine, but it's just not a viable option for most people. A friend of mine is a math teacher, and he did a thing in a class where they figured that at thier current birth rate, China could line up the population one foot apart and march them into the sea, and they NEVER would run out of people, and China has population control laws. Saying overpopulation is not a grave and immediate problem is just delusional.

No, delusional is making claims based on pure hearsay with no evidence, and because of those claims, calling someone else "delusional".

I posted evidence that the WORLD's growth rate has been moderating for several decades. The second derivative of the growth function, the rate of change of growth, has been negative for some time. The first derivative, the change in growth itself, is approaching zero. It is anticipated, based on historical trends, that the growth of the world's human population will be negative within a few decades.

This does not characterize "exponential" growth.

Now, you don't say where you live, but out here in the Wild and Wooley West, there is plenty of room. Sure, there are occaisional issues with water, but, using the proper methods (both high tech and low tech) that water could go a lot further than it does. Turns out, we actually have government regulations that prevent the maximally effective use of water. As far as land, and sunshine, and most anything else you would need, we're nowhere near running out.

If we were to allow the most efficient sources of energy, hemp and nuclear, we could easily provide for the power and water requirements, even for the dry West.

It turns out that greater levels of technology and freedom lead to lower, even negative, population growth rates. As people around the world are able to better provide for their own future, they rely less and less on future generations to do so. Big problem is that many want to reduce our use of technology and limit our freedom. Historically, that has been shown to result in extremely high population growths.

Quite the conundrum, huh?

The more you act to limit population growth, the more likely you are to have out of control population growth.

Keith

[Compugasm]

Quote by: Mozart1220 The population is growing EXPONENTIALLY, so the problem grows faster every day.

Show me the mathmatical proof of exponent in population growth.