Does Luck Exist?

[Nathan Struth]

:confused: Does Luck Exist?

Luck is a chance happening of fortune. Luck can be defined as synonymous with fate. Luck is often regarded as a superstition, but can be interpreted in many ways. wikipedia.com (type luck in search). But let me clarify that I mean "Lucky people" having better odds of probability than other people for the same game. I don't think luck exists.

[The Bacon Guy]

Luck exists to the extent that the direction in which a person's life goes is ouwith his or her control. For example, someone whose personality develops in such a way that they become a mass murderer and end up in jail for life would be very unlucky in the commonly used definition of luck.

However, I don't believe in luck as anything other than a man made concept used to explain how some lives turn out more favourable than others. I don't think there is an actual force of luck, that people are born with different degrees of luck or that there is any way of increasing luck. Luck, as a metaphysical concept, does not exist.

[Lullaby Chainer]

Quote by: Nathan Struth :confused: Does Luck Exist? Luck is a chance happening of fortune. Luck can be defined as synonymous with fate. Luck is often regarded as a superstition, but can be interpreted in many ways. wikipedia.com (type luck in search). But let me clarify that I mean "Lucky people" having better odds of probability than other people for the same game. I don't think luck exists.

What will happen, will happen.

For every happening, there is a 'why'.

Things can only happen once. (in one version of time)

[The Architect]

However, I don't believe in luck as anything other than a man made concept used to explain how some lives turn out more favourable than others. I don't think there is an actual force of luck, that people are born with different degrees of luck or that there is any way of increasing luck. Luck, as a metaphysical concept, does not exist.

I agree, there is no force called Luck but rather its just an explanation of why other people have more favorable outcomes, i dont beleive in fate either anyone can change there destiny and there fate, its up to them.

[Lullaby Chainer]

Quote by: The Architect i dont beleive in fate either anyone can change there destiny and there fate, its up to them.

Change their destiny..? That's self-contradicting.

Do you mean to say, our future is not predetermined and relies on what we do?

If so..

Isn't what we do, part of our future? If with every action, there is a cause, can't we say that, in a mind bobbling way, everything WILL happen just as it is set up to happen?

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Below is an example of my views on luck, chance, and randomness.

A dice is said to land on either 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6. Each number is said to be equally likely to occur. We also say that the roll of the dice is random.

This may seem so, in any ordinary circumstances. But let's break this down.

From the beginning of our version of time, matter has arranged itself in such a way it has brought about a human being, and a man-made contraption called "dice." Up to the point before the roll, we could theoretically trace every molecule, every law of physics, every WHY, every reason for every movement, inertia, and event, until we came to the very beginning. Unless you are willing to argue that some things defy the laws of causality, then you must agree everything is a chain reaction following the laws of physics and/or any other governing laws that we may not be aware of, including the laws that govern these laws, and so forth.

Thus, here we have a human being and his dice. Let's go through this in slow motion. Mental causality, and the physical properties of the brain, conclude the decision to roll the dice. From this moment, a number of factors have been set in order to make the throw. Stress, habit, and environment, for an example, may be one of countless billions of factors that will determine the way in which this person throws the dice. Now, imagine the instants of the throw. The velocity of the dice, the air resistance of the environment, the rotational inertia of the spin; things seem under control when we put things in deep perspective. We can follow the movement of the dice, and the exact reasons for each movement, from the bounce on the surface to the weight of the dice in relation to its roll.

What do you know. It landed on '4'. Could it have happened any other way?

Now, let's try to grasp this illusion of luck and chance in our own hand. Before, the immense number of factors that take part in the outcome of the dice roll is so intimidating, we often see it as "luck" or "chance." If we were to take the dice, and place it a centimeter above the surface, we would then be shrinking the factors that conclude the outcome into an easy to understand situation. We can fully grasp what the dice will do this time. In this case, the top number is '6', and so, we predict the dice will obviously land on '6'. Which it does.

You see, luck, chance, and randomness are a model of our ignorance of the future. Things like chance and luck shrink when our ignorance is lifted.

[Milton Bradley]

Quote by: Nathan Struth :confused: Does Luck Exist?

Come, witness my black cloud.


But it really only comes into play on the critical issues, not on anything unimportant.


They say "lucky in cards, unlucky in love", I definately fit that cliche.


I'll also mention that I am not a superstitious person either, just a witness to the black cloud.

[kubedawg]

Luck does not exist. Probability and chance are the only things that do exist in this world. No magic force to increase those odds. If you learn how to improve your odds, you are just increasing the chance or probability that you will win. Luck IMO is just another word for chance.

[The Architect]

So luck is probability and chance and is influenced by everything that has happened before it.

everything WILL happen just as it is set up to happen?

But if luck is chance/probability then isnt there multiple outcomes for one event. EX. Your at a crossroads, you can either go left, right, or straight, if you go left or straight you may end up at your destination just as you planned, but instead you decided to go right and you get into a horrible crash that injures you for the rest of your life. Isnt that an example of chance and the multiple outcomes from one event (sitting at the red light at the cross roads).
Apologies if im not making anysense.

[Lullaby Chainer]

Quote by: The Architect So luck is probability and chance and is influenced by everything that has happened before it. But if luck is chance/probability then isnt there multiple outcomes for one event. EX. Your at a crossroads, you can either go left, right, or straight, if you go left or straight you may end up at your destination just as you planned, but instead you decided to go right and you get into a horrible crash that injures you for the rest of your life. Isnt that an example of chance and the multiple outcomes from one event (sitting at the red light at the cross roads). Apologies if im not making anysense.

I think I've addressed this in the rest of my post. If not, please clarify.

[Fonceai]

@Lullaby

I think you bring up something interesting in Post #5.

The odds on a die roll are 1 in 6. If you choose 4 and I choose 5, and it lands on 4, you were as equally lucky as I was unlucky.

If you successfully guess correctly the next 99 die rolls, someone could say that are incredibly lucky, having beaten the 1 in 6^100 odds.

Or someone could just say you beat the 1 in 6 odds, 100 times.

The association with luck is derived from the consistency of beating the odds. A series of fortunate events.

Luck is just a word for the phenomenon of repeated success. I don't think it's actually some mystical force.

[Lullaby Chainer]

Quote by: Fonceai @Lullaby I think you bring up something interesting in Post #5. The odds on a die roll are 1 in 6. If you choose 4 and I choose 5, and it lands on 4, you were as equally lucky as I was unlucky. If you successfully guess correctly the next 99 die rolls, someone could say that are incredibly lucky, having beaten the 1 in 6^100 odds. Or someone could just say you beat the 1 in 6 odds, 100 times. The association with luck is derived from the consistency of beating the odds. A series of fortunate events. Luck is just a word for the phenomenon of repeated success. I don't think it's actually some mystical force.

True, and in actuality. Many things seen as "lucky" are statistically expected to happen.

It's shallow to think, you're a lucky person, because you rolled a '6' four times and a row. Because, statistically, that is expected to happen quite often. With the millions of dice rolls in a week, it would actually be incredibly unbelievable to NOT see someone roll a '6' four times in a row.

Luck is a superstition. Like most superstitions, it's born out of magically connecting a cause to an event.

I walked under a ladder, and later I was fired. Magically connecting these things is superstitious.

This doesn't mean luck is always superstition. It's also quite practical in describing fortunate events in one's favor. So long as you don't see luck as an aura of sorts, or an actual CAUSE of the effects.

Luck is never a CAUSE. That is superstitious. Luck is only a description.

[Fonceai]

"Luck is only a description."

That's how I see it.

It's a very very convenient word to use. Instead of describing someone as "blessed with the fortuitous conclusion of life situations" you say "lucky".

[Nathan Struth]

I meant that at the present moment of probability. Of course if you saw what the future was, there wouldn't be any randomness of a different future if you went back to the past (comparative to the future). Lullaby chainer, you think probability/randomnes (at the present moment) is ignorance? Please explain cause I didn't get it.

Take molecules in motion for example: Liquids that are hotter (more kinetic energy) have a higher probability to bump into each other. If they had a lower probability of this, the liquid would have a lower temperature. The liquid with the high temperature and the kinetic energy of the molecules is enough proof for this. Do you disagree?

[underbear1]

Luck/Fate does exist, but I've found it needs a little kick start with a waxen image and pins, my Mark Foley doll looks like a pin cushion, and next is David Dreier's turn.

[Abdullah]

If it does then its gay, cuz that means I have bad luck :(

[JohnMK]

Of course luck doesn't exist as some divine entity gifting one or another with fortuitous outcome. It IS alright, however, to appeal to luck in everyday speech, e.g. "you lucky SOB!" Sort of like saying "By Jove . . ." even if you don't believe in him.

I have a friend who tries to make me feel dumb for using expressions like this. Literally, he's not joking . . . and it hurts 'cuz I'm the sensitive type who can easily be convinced he IS dumb. I think such predilection is just a mark of wisdom on my part. OK, now we're getting personal.

I'm a genius, make no mistake, when it comes to brains, I take the cake! MMmmmm.

[Lullaby Chainer]

Quote by: Nathan Struth Lullaby chainer, you think probability/randomnes (at the present moment) is ignorance? Please explain cause I didn't get it.

Yes.

We throw dice off a building. We have no way of knowing what it will land on, so we say each number is equally likely. Though, there are no anomalies about the laws of physics that bring the dice down, rotating it accordingly. In regards to mental and physical causality, there was no other way it could have happen.

We hold dice a centimeter above a table. We have now lifted our ignorance of the future, by severely minimizing the factors of the dice roll. Instead of an intimidatingly immense physics problem like we had on top of the building, we now have a small easy physics problem. We can now rule out all numbers but the number on top before dropping it one centimeter to the table.

What's the difference between these situations? Nothing but our ignorance. There is no exception in causality or the laws of physics for our first situation, nor is there for our second situation. All that changes is our level of ignorance. THAT is precisely what governs probability and randomness. As our ignorance was lifted in the second situation, probability changed in favor of just one number. BUT, I'll repeat, there was never any exception to physics in our first situation. We just can't possibly calculate what a dice is going to land on when we drop it from on top of a building.

Another example.

Betty reasons that George will ask her out on a date tonight. She concludes that the chances are roughly 50:50.

Betty's ignorance level is relativley high in this situation, which is why the probability seems to be 50:50 to her.

John, on the other hand, was informed by George that he will be asking Sarah out on a date. John's ignorance level is low because he has gained insight. He reasons that Betty's chances are 1 out of 100.

See how much our ignorance can effect probability?

Now, in ACTUALLITY, the laws of causality will not be broken, and there is only one possible outcome as a result of an unbroken line of causality.

WE can't know what the lottery numbers will be. For all of us, our ignorance is incredibly high; maxed out, in fact. Thus, the probability for every combination of numbers is EQUALLY likely. BUT, if causality is not broken, there is only ONE number that can be pulled and all other numbers have no chance in the eyes of causality. In the ignorant eyes of ourselves, though, every number is equally likely.

I hope I've explained it well enough.

[The Bacon Guy]

Don't you believe in statistical mechanics, the random nature of radioactive decay or the collapse of the wave? Or are you on the hidden variable side of the argument?

[Lullaby Chainer]

Quote by: The Bacon Guy Don't you believe in statistical mechanics, the random nature of radioactive decay or the collapse of the wave? Or are you on the hidden variable side of the argument?

When confronted with that type of argument, I usually have this to say.

Premise: The version of time in consideration is equal to the version of time we are considering.
Premise: One version of time, happens once during itself.

If our version of time happens once
then
things can only happen one way

If things can only happen one way
then
no other possibilities will happen

If no other possibilities will happen
then
whether there is a WHY to every happening is irrelevant thus the existence of the "hidden variable" is irrelevant to the conclusion that only one outcome may take place
thus
probability is false meaning probability only measures our ignorance


Though, I do believe every happening can be questioned with "why?"

[Nathan Struth]

OH SHIT hahah sorry lullaby I took it into the wrong context. I thought you meant that probability didn't exist!

I thought you meant by ignorance, you meant that we didn't know that it didn't exist. Whoops. Wow you would love Quantum physics. You should read into it. It's all about this stuff (wave function.) I took your answer the wrong way.