A happy accident? Really?
According to David Deamer who is Professor Emeritus of Chemistry at University of California, Santa Cruz the probability of a ribozyme assembling by chance is 4^300.
"Sir Fred Hoyle a mathematician and astronomer calculated that the probability of one simple enzyme forming by chance is 10 to the power of 20 (one with twenty zeros behind it), to 1. Hence for one cell to form, about 2000 enzymes are needed, which makes the probability of the first self replicating cell forming by random movement of atoms as 10 to the power of 40000 to 1. One bitter critic of Hoyle begrudgingly says that that this figure is 'probably not overly exaggerated'. It has been said that this is as likely as a cyclone going through a junkyard and producing a fully functional jumbo jet. People do say that if you allow enough time, anything can happen. However, at best we have about 4.6 billion years to work with. If Sir Fred Hoyle's calculated probability was for a cell to form in say the next second then the probability of a cell forming in 4.6 billion years is still about 10 to the power of 39982 to 1. If it was for a microsecond, the probability would be 10 to the power of 39976 to 1. If it was for a picosecond, the probability would be 10 to the power of 39970 to 1. There are approximately 10 to the power of 80 atoms in this universe."
So explain to me how your theory of odds and probability explain life.Am I overestimating the odds now? Peter said that given enough time anything is possible. With these chances it's unlikely that life will form even once within the 14 billion time span of our universe.
We know very little about the universe. Probably not more then a spec. Your entire argument relies on odds and probability. With probability events don't just happen once they are repeated. If life on earth is just a happy accident did it happen once? In that case you cannot explain it with probability or odds. It's a fucking miracle. And you don't believe in miracles. Or do you now? If, however, you say that life happens because of probability and chance then the probability of life happening else where in our gigantic universe is high. This is assertion is supported by Steven Hawking. In fact a legitimate theory of the origins of life is that life was transported from other planets.
You admit that there is order but you are unwilling to admit intelligence. Back to my clay analogy. Dispersed disorder does not just randomly come together as order. Are we playing the probability game again? Should we analyze these odds? Anyways according the second law of thermodynamics there is a tendency for systems to go form order to disorder.