Are we headed for a major economic depression?

[RVonse]

Having George Bush in charge of the economy is like putting Nero in charge of flammable materials. After carefully reading this: http://www.markswatson.com/Depression1.html
I am rapidly coming to the opinion that some sort of major depression is in store for us. Basically what the author tells us is that at this point in time, the U.S. is in the last stages of staying solvent and that there are tell tale signs of collapse but that these signs are not reported by the media.. Although the authors timeline is obviously off, I truely believe that his logic is sound. He believes there are 1 of 4 ways we could fall apart.

What do you guys think? Should we be buckling down the hatches and preparing ourselves for the worst? I happen to have my house paid for, but what are some other prudents steps to be taking now before the shit hits the fan?

[jose]

Have you thought of possible relocation areas, Guam looks nice
do you have or could you learn skills people will pay you for even in a depression
what kind of store of value can you put together, not paper money or paper stocks but things that have real value
clean the shotgun

[Osborn F Enready]

Rvonse said: Are we headed for a major economic depression?

I say:
Yes.

[PatrickHenry]

There are methods of avoiding the intensity of the pain, even if it all falls apart:
Local Exchange Trading Systems
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LETS

The basics of LETS 1. Local people set up a club to trade between themselves, keeping their own record of accounts. 2. A directory of members' offers and requests--goods, services or items for hire, priced in local LETS units--is compiled and circulated. 3. Members use the directory to contact one another whenever they wish. They pay for any service or goods by writing a LETS cheque or credit note for an agreed amount of LETS units, or by exchanging printed LETS notes. 4. If applicable, the credit note is sent to the LETS book-keeper who adjusts both members' accounts accordingly. Unlike direct barter, with LETS members can earn credits from any member and spend them with anyone else on the scheme.

[BobbyO]

People always seem to talk about a "major economic depression" whenever the GOP is running things. The economy was going to tank after the '87 stock collapse, Ravi Batra wrote of a coming great depression in the early 90s, and I guess now folks have the same dread.

Relax, it ain't happening.

[PatrickHenry]

More on alternative monetary systems: http://newciv.org/worldtrans/ncn/moneyteam.html

[RVonse]

Quote by: Bobby O People always seem to talk about a "major economic depression" whenever the GOP is running things. The economy was going to tank after the '87 stock collapse, Ravi Batra wrote of a coming great depression in the early 90s, and I guess now folks have the same dread. Relax, it ain't happening

Were it not for the actions of the FED we surely would have seen a collapse back in 1987. If you read the article in OP you will quickly realize that the FED has just about run out of rope now. There is so much government debt already that other countries will no longer fund this unless interest can be raised. But interest can not be raised without breaking the housing bubble and stopping consumption. The only money for consumption right now is coming from home equity because there are no longer any real wage jobs! All the good jobs are in other countries now.

Yes, the economy was bad when Bush Nero Jr. came into office but he has done nothing but put gasoline on the fire. He should have greatly increased taxes of the rich, got the U.S. out of the WTO, reduced government expenditures (namely by not getting into Iraq), and closed our boarders.

But he has done exactly just the opposite!

[RVonse]

Quote by: BobbyO People always seem to talk about a "major economic depression" whenever the GOP is running things. The economy was going to tank after the '87 stock collapse, Ravi Batra wrote of a coming great depression in the early 90s, and I guess now folks have the same dread. Relax, it ain't happening

Quote by: RVonse Were it not for the actions of the FED we surely would have seen a collapse back in 1987. If you read the article in OP you will quickly realize that the FED has just about run out of rope now. There is so much government debt already that other countries will no longer fund this unless interest can be raised. But interest can not be raised without breaking the housing bubble and stopping consumption. The only money for consumption right now is coming from home equity because there are no longer any real wage jobs! All the good jobs are in other countries now. Yes, the economy was bad when Bush Nero Jr. came into office but he has done nothing but put gasoline on the fire. He should have greatly increased taxes of the rich, got the U.S. out of the WTO, reduced government expenditures (namely by not getting into Iraq), and closed our boarders. But he has done exactly just the opposite!

I forgot to even mention the challange of peak oil. Even with good honest leadership in Washington, peak oil will have made continuing our present way of life very difficult.

Given all the facts, you've almost got to be crazy if you don't think something bad is going to go down.

[RVonse]

Quote by: PatrickHenry More on alternative monetary systems: http://newciv.org/worldtrans/ncn/moneyteam.html

PatrickHenry, I am envious that you located in Hawaii. Not only for the weather but it might help isolate you from many bad things that will probably take place once people realize what their situation is.

I have visited Hawaii many times and always felt it would be a great place to live except to afford the cost of living and to find a decent job.

[PatrickHenry]

RVonse, yeah the cost of living is high and the jobs pay poorly. However we have free beaches, no heating bills and don't ever wear winter coats!

Also a tradition of families and people looking after one another...

[RVonse]

Some more food for thought. I am now wondering if many of the freedoms we are rapidly losing has more to do with the preparation of our internal collapse than terrorism and that this could be the real reason behind the Patriot Act. I am at least very confident that conterfeiting is not the real reason new currancy was issued and they are no longer reporting M3 which is very suspicious to me. Everything is so under wraps and the media is eerily silent about this subject.

Could it be the insiders are seeing the handwriting that an economic and societal collapse is now a forseeable possibility and they're preparing for it.

This could be the right time to start fitting me for a tinfoil hat.

[PatrickHenry]

Quote by: RVonse This could be the right time to start fitting me for a tinfoil hat.

Allow me to invite you into the 9/11 Skeptics Forum...

[rmnunez]

Seems more like things are on the upswing, particularly in the US, where they need so many new workers about 12 million are about to get conscripted into the fiscal base (a tremendous economic stimulus). France has a bit of labour trouble and across the EU they've got a major unemployment problem, but in the west we see generally favourable macroeconomic performance; interest rates are low, inflation is under control, job growth is good, there are adequate levels of capital investment, housing starts, real estate values, taxes collected, infrastructural improvements are all positive in most reliable accounts.

[Milton Bradley]

Quote by: rmnunez Seems more like things are on the upswing, particularly in the US, where they need so many new workers about 12 million are about to get conscripted into the fiscal base (a tremendous economic stimulus).

That is the side corporate America wants you to believe, but we don't really need those workers, the corporations just want them because they will not stand up for themselves, or demand proper treatment.


It's nice that your're sympathetic to our corporate overlords, but articulating that here isn't going to win you any friends among the Volconvo crowd.


Perhaps you should try viewing this through the eyes of the unemloyed Americans, or through the eyes of those blacklisted by our corporate overlords, or perhaps you could just put a sock in it.

[RickSp]

The conditions look remarkably similar to those prior to the great depression of the 1930s. After a period of increased globalization and increased prosperity we are seeing a rise in protectionsim and imperial war. If these trends continue a global economic downturn looks likely.

[Osborn F Enready]

Peak Oil, will assure a financial failure for ALL nations that depend on it....

Security Councils 5 permanent members.......

[bishop]

what goes up must come down.. this is as true in economics as it is in physics.

and the larger the imbalances are during the "good times", the harder the fall will be. the dot-com boom turned into a market bubble and... *pop*.. the great depression also had a market bubble, fueled by a massive credit bubble..

what do we have now? for starters, bush has bestowed $3 trillion (and counting) in new debt to the american public. he's done nothing to reform social security because if the investment bankers can't have their hands deep in the action, then there can be no deal as far as he's concerned.. and his "reform" to medicare estimated to cost another $1.2 trillion. and that's just public debt - how about all those people taking out variable rate mortgages who aren't going to be able to sell those houses anytime soon? the thousands of college students out there drowning in debt.... our massive companies on the verge of bankruptcy, from the airlines, to auto manufacturers, etc... total corporate debt is about 50% of gdp right now..

the fact that we're in a massive credit bubble is undeniable - and no amount of partisan cheerleading can negate it's veracity.



as to what you can do to protect the assets you currently own... first off, if you truly believed that we will experience a crash, i would certainly stock up on lots of non-perishable commodities. as much as is reasonable and possible. should we experience a crash, you will be forced to pay out the ass for your most basic needs - so better to be prepared in advance.. get some source of power, canned goods, water, etc... and as far as your monetary assets are concerned.. you could buy precious metals - which i would advise against because their prices will be very inflated by the time you finally buy them (and i'm not convinced that they will be readily accepted as a form of payment). you could convert your dollars into euros or yen.. or, you could buy a load of TIPS (treasury inflation protected securities) and hold out until the government manages to salvage our currency. TIPS only shield you from changes in CPI though, and CPI has been found to understate inflation rates...

there is no perfect answer, but those options would be infinately better than staying in equities or cash.

[weasel]

What I'm really concerned about is all the government spending that we've been doing. The Inflation in our country is already bad; we don't need any more help. If we keep this up, we're going to be left behind in the world economy to be replaced by China.

[Osborn F Enready]

Weasel said: If we keep this up, we're going to be left behind in the world economy to be replaced by China.

I say:
That is part of the agenda my friend.

What other way can you think of to lower national wages, working conditions, and pesky rights of the individual?

[Athena]

Quote by: RVonse Having George Bush in charge of the economy is like putting Nero in charge of flammable materials. After carefully reading this: http://www.markswatson.com/Depression1.html I am rapidly coming to the opinion that some sort of major depression is in store for us. Basically what the author tells us is that at this point in time, the U.S. is in the last stages of staying solvent and that there are tell tale signs of collapse but that these signs are not reported by the media.. Although the authors timeline is obviously off, I truely believe that his logic is sound. He believes there are 1 of 4 ways we could fall apart. What do you guys think? Should we be buckling down the hatches and preparing ourselves for the worst? I happen to have my house paid for, but what are some other prudents steps to be taking now before the shit hits the fan?

We need to relearn how to cooperate with each other rather then remain dependent on a system that has collapsed in the past and will collapse again.

In the past, instead of cooperating and taking charge by uniting, we have allowed individuals to fall, until our cities are full of vacant buildings, businesses and homes, and homelessness increases, and conditions of povety cause increasing numbers of death, while the futures of those coming to age during such economic collapse, are destroyed.
I am finally thankful for what I learned during the 1970 recession, because I now live with hope that enough learn the importance of uniting of helping each other, there is hope.

This nest economic collapse threatens to be much worse. People fled Oregon like rats leaving sinking ship, during the 1970 recession, and government decisions intensified the problem. This next time around, the economic collapse will likely hit the whole nation in such away that is not place to flee to. Far fewer families have grandparents living on farms as they did during the 1930 depression, this means the production, and distribution of food will become a major concern. Our food stamp system will collapse. What happens during bad times, is the requirement for assistance increases. That is people must be in greater need to qualify for assistance. No one should believe assistance programs today will be there for them if the economy collapses again. We need to develop programs for shelter, work and food gather and distribution, that are in our local hands, and depend on what we can for each other. We need a plan that prevents bankers from taking what people need when resources have dried up.