A Third Sino-Japanese War: is it possible?

[fushigi]

The Japanese foreign minister today called China a "considerable threat," based on its military spending increases and nuclear capabilities. This, on the coattails of Rumsfeld's visit to Beijing in which the defense secretary voiced the same concerns. But it's much more troubling for a Japanese cabinet member to be so patently hostile. Japanese politicians are generally vague, subtle, and highly discrete.

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So what is the meaning? Is it just tall talk from a US parrot, or is Japan starting to flex its muscles? Is it finally fed up with the Chinese upstart wrecking its plans for a permanent SC seat and taking control of the East Asian economy? What circumstances could start a Third Sino-Japanese War? Where would the US stand?

[tinybear]

The US would be stupid to back the Japs. But then it won't be the first time the US supports the wrong people, would it?

[Nono]

Yes, the Japanese are pretty pissed off about the SC thing, and also about being the ones who spend all that money on international organizations and aid while the cheapskate Chinese snipe from the peanut gallery.

In the unlikely event of a Sino-Chinese conflict, the US would certainly back its poodle Japan (provided that none of its own personnel had to actually fight or anything).
If Japan arms itself with nukes, things will certainly get more interesing.

How could it come about? The same way so many other conflicts will in the coming decades: elbowing each other out of the way in the race to secure dwindling supplies of fossil fuels.

[RickSp]

Quote by: fushigi The Japanese foreign minister today called China a "considerable threat," based on its military spending increases and nuclear capabilities. This, on the coattails of Rumsfeld's visit to Beijing in which the defense secretary voiced the same concerns. But it's much more troubling for a Japanese cabinet member to be so patently hostile. Japanese politicians are generally vague, subtle, and highly discrete. Article So what is the meaning? Is it just tall talk from a US parrot, or is Japan starting to flex its muscles? Is it finally fed up with the Chinese upstart wrecking its plans for a permanent SC seat and taking control of the East Asian economy? What circumstances could start a Third Sino-Japanese War? Where would the US stand?

The paradigm has shifted completely since the last Sino-Japanese War. In the 1930s the Japanese occupation was justified in mercantilist terms. Access and control of Manchurian oil was often mentioned. The regions conquered by Japan would form the "Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere" - a great mercantile empire.

Now mercantilism as a doctrine has collapsed (except in certain Washington thinks tanks and the White house) and an open market, if not entirely free market, model has replaced it. Japanese China trade was over $168 billion in 2004 and exceeds Japan's trade with the US. Japan and China are each their own largest trading partners. For the Japanese to attack China or China to attack Japan would be commerical suicide.

Ironically, some argue that the US is repeating Japan's mistake in China in the 1930s. We hear the same mercantilist justification for war - access to energy, democratizing (civilizing) a critical region and so on.

Is the U.S. Repeating the Mistakes of Japan in the 1930s?

[US Independent]

It would be a horrible war, however the US would back Japan, most likely the European countries would stay neutral, however if the US could get some European nations to fight we could eliminate China. That would be a happy and a very sad day because we all know China is a very threatening military threat and it would be very bloody war. It would have an awesome outcome once China lost but I don't think all those people dead would be worth it.

I don't know if the Chinese people actually have that great of training experience they have a huge population but they are still inferior to American military and even Britain military. The real problem is is China's nuclear weapons. We would have to eliminate those first before we went and attacked China.

[Cephus]

I really doubt that we're going to see any aggression toward China from Japan. Japan has been making serious inroads economically into China and stands to become one of the major suppliers of tech products to the Chinese mainland. Heck, in the past 5 years, Japanese cars have gone from 1-2% of the total sales in China to over 20% and it's still rising quickly. Japan would only be shooting themselves in the foot economically to take any unprovoked action against China.

[fushigi]

You know, RickSP and Cephus, I always hear the argument that economic integration will always trump a Sino-Japanese war and I think, "Gee, who was it that was Germany's #1 trade partner in 1939? Oh, yeah, France."

I do agree with RickSP that we have a much different international system now. Colonialism and Fascism have been discredited and nearly every country in Asia (besides North Korea and maybe Myanmar) has accepted that a free market is a happy one. But I'm still a capital-R Realist, and I know that states will do what they have to if they feel threatened in our system of international anarchy. I propose three scenarios for another conflict, you all tell me how likely any is:

1) Taiwan declares independence. China attacks Taiwan, and Japan comes to Taiwan's aid. (Could be by using a future missile defense shield to intercept Chinese missiles.)

2) Japan, threatened by NK's nuclear program and the U.S.'s inability to halt it (or provoked/hit with missiles by NK) invades NK. In response to public pressure, China sides with NK to repel the Japanese threat on its borders.

3) The Chinese gov't, during a time of intense public protest, provokes a shooting match with Japan over the Diaoyu Islands to distract popular attention away from the Chinese gov't and toward the Japanese. The conflict escalates, drawing the Japanese and Chinese navies into a bonafide shooting war.