The Iraqi Insurgency - Who Are They and How Many?

[RickSp]

In November of 2003, General John Abizaid, the head of US Central Command, estimated the number of fighters operating against US and allied forces at no more than 5,000. In less than a year the US military's estimate of the insurgency size rose to over 20,000. Recently, they have stopped making estimates.

Two recent news articles suggest the insurgency is growing. BBC uses figures of "30,000 to some 200,000 fighters" while the Christian Science Monitor also uses a 30,000 figure. The Christian Science Monitor also reports that the number of "foreign fighters" has been dramatically overstated, possibly constituting only 4-10% of the insurgency.

It appears that the longer we stay in Iraq, the larger the Iraqi insurgency grows. Is our very presence as a infidel occupier guaranteeing our defeat as a home-grown resistance rises against us?

Who are the insurgents in Iraq?

Diverse groups have been drawn into the ranks of Iraq's insurgency, with little in common beyond a commitment to attack US forces or their perceived allies.

The insurgency has no single spokesman, nor any shared long-term aim. Where some groups, for instance, are fighting for a Sunni Muslim caliphate, others foresee a Shia theocracy for Iraq.

The incentives driving individual insurgents are equally disparate - from religious zeal to economic gain, nationalist fervour and anger at the loss of income or loved ones to the conflict.

There is little agreement on the numbers involved. Estimates vary from 30,000 to some 200,000 fighters - a figure cited by Iraqi intelligence in 2005.

The 'myth' of Iraq's foreign fighters

The US and Iraqi governments have vastly overstated the number of foreign fighters in Iraq, and most of them don't come from Saudi Arabia, according to a new report from the Washington-based Center for Strategic International Studies (CSIS). According to a piece in The Guardian, this means the US and Iraq "feed the myth" that foreign fighters are the backbone of the insurgency. While the foreign fighters may stoke the incurgency flames, they only comprise only about 4 to 10 percent of the estimated 30,000 insurgents.

[Autolykos]

So the truth finally comes out -- these are people who are simply defending their homes against what they've come to regard as a hostile occupying force.

- Rob

[rmnunez]

What proportion of the fighters were "foreign" in the US Civil War, how about in the Spanish one, how many foreigners in those "Lincoln Brigades?

[RickSp]

What proportion of the fighters were "foreign" in the US Civil War, how about in the Spanish one, how many foreigners in those "Lincoln Brigades?

Amusing. You are no doubt aware that the US military has been crediting much of the growth of the insurgency to the arrival of "foreign fighters" while claiming that the insurgency was losing local support. Turns out neither is true. The insurgency is almsot exclusively home grown and is growing. The pretty stories told by the US military are, at best, wishful thinking.

There were actually a relatively high percentage of foreign born soldiers in the American Civil War, perhaps exceeding 10% of the Union Army, which has absolutely nothing to do with the topic at hand.

[Zeebadee]

How do you even decide what an "insurgent" is? A little old lady may never think of firing a gun or lighting a fuse, but she may do her part in defending her country by delivering information or materials, or providing a room for the night for a real fighter on a mission. Does this make her an insurgent too? Look at it from their point of view. If the U.S. was occupied, how many citizens would cooperate when forced to, but take a shot at the enemy when they got the chance? How are we even going to know when this war is over? When we go 3 days in a row without an IED or suicide bomb? Can anyone imagine how long it will be before an American can walk unarmed and alone down an Iraqi street?? In Iraq, we have to consider every single Iraqi citizen a possible insurgent. When the right opportunity comes along, even a little old lady can pull the pin on a grenade. These "insurgents" may number in the millions.

[Scribbler1]

The longer we stay there the higher that number will rise, whether accurately or not. It just wouldn't go over too well to tell the American people we were there for all this time fighting a force of only 5,000 people. And what would the people say if they believed this group had killed American soldiers to the tune of almost a quarter of their own forces?

[xyzer]

So the truth finally comes out -- these are people who are simply defending their homes against what they've come to regard as a hostile occupying force.

Nonsense! Is that why thousands of Iraqi innocents are killed by bombs and booby traps, plus suicide bombers who deliberately target their own neighbors and people?

These few thousand in a country of 25million or so are nothing but paid thugs and zealous jihadists with a crazed version of religion. They realize that US Forces have already conquered their country and are giving every evidence of impatience to get out as soon as stability is achieved.

[ise]

this info might help.


So what were two undercover British soldiers up to in Basra?

Raymond Whitaker in London and Sarah Tejal Dave in Basra report
Published: 25 September 2005

Subversion from nearby Iran has been blamed for a recent increase in attacks on British forces in southern Iraq, including the use of more sophisticated and deadly roadside bombs, which have claim- ed the lives of three soldiers. Initial assumptions that the undercover pair were working to combat such influence have been contradicted by military and other sources, however. Not only are they sceptical about the Iranian connection, pointing out that there is more than enough explosive and bomb-making expertise available in Iraq, but they say the surveillance operation was the result of a problem largely of Britain's own making.

The occupation authorities have turned a blind eye while Shia militias - including one loyal to the Prime Minister, Ibrahim al-Jafaari, who appeared in London last week with the Defence Secretary, John Reid, to condemn the violence - have infiltrated the police in southern Iraq. Another group supports the maverick Shia cleric, Moqtada al-Sadr; it is hardly surprising that Basra's police chief admitted last week that he could count on the loyalty of only a quarter of his men.

Corruption among the poorly trained and ill-disciplined police is another concern. "They sell their uni- forms to insurgents for $25 while also taking the wage as a police officer supporting the multinational force," said one British squaddie. "So why do we bother?"

It is the adherents of Ahmed al-Fartusi, who broke away from Mr Sadr's Mahdi Army, who are the greatest danger. According to sources in Basra, they had turned the Jamiat police station in south-western Basra into a hotbed for smuggling, political assassination and organised crime, and trouble was already feared when Mr Fartusi and another suspect were arrested last Sunday. The seizure of the surveillance team outside the station lit the touchpaper. British forces surround- ed the compound, and were attacked by crowds of Iraqis.

this a very lenghty report with much more info.

[xyzer]

Good source ise..I think it points up the tribal and religious differences existing in this country of 25 million or so armed people. Saddam controlled them pretty well but it required extreme methods, continual armed patrols, head chpping and torture.

[RickSp]

A telling statistic, less about the insurgents themselves but about the difficulty in fighting an insurgency.

US forced to import bullets from Israel as troops use 250,000 for every rebel killed

US forces have fired so many bullets in Iraq and Afghanistan - an estimated 250,000 for every insurgent killed - that American ammunition-makers cannot keep up with demand. As a result the US is having to import supplies from Israel.

[rmnunez]

The Islamic fundamentalists will have a fit, imagine infidels using Jewish bullets to kill Muslims.

[ise]

US forces have fired so many bullets in Iraq and Afghanistan - an estimated 250,000 for every insurgent killed - that American ammunition-makers cannot keep up with demand. As a result the US is having to import supplies from Israel.

what are these iraqis made off. 250,000 rounds per dead iraqi.
it only tales 5, 8 or 11 rounds to kill a braziliam in london.

is this 250,000 figure based on every dead iraqi, including women and children?
or is it based on certified self-declared insurgentists, home grown or imported?

could it be that a story in the future will be the iraqis turning those metal shells/rounds being turned into guns to shoot back at the same units that fired them in the first place.
sick, yes, but not novel. hand built weapons have been common in the middle east.

is drug taking a firing offence in the us army. seems the uk is withdrawing-by-drug bust.

11 soldiers face drugs axe
Mon 26 Sep 2005
RHIANNON EDWARD

ELEVEN soldiers from the 1st Battalion Welsh Guards may be thrown out of the army after testing positive for drugs.

Test results for five of the guardsmen showed up Class A drugs after the whole unit was checked as part of the army's drug-testing programme.

"Internal action is being taken ... and it is likely that they will be discharged, in line with army policy," the Ministry of Defence said yesterday.