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dotcoma · May 29, 2005, 07:03 pm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4592243.stm

Quote:

French voters have overwhelmingly rejected the European Union's proposed constitution in a key referendum.
With 85% of votes counted the "No" vote stood at almost 56%, according to interior ministry figures.

The vote could deal a fatal blow to the EU constitution, which needs to be ratified by all 25 members states.

President Jacques Chirac accepted the voters' "sovereign decision", but said it created "a difficult context for the defence of our interests in Europe".

The French leader had campaigned hard for a "Yes" vote.

Do you think this will help the US dollar? Confidence in the European Union could certainly decline with the founding country (France) overwhelmingly saying no to the EU constitution.

Mr.Vicchio · May 29, 2005, 07:15 pm

I think it's good news for the Europeans, that "constitution" was a mess IMHO. That being said, the best thing that occured was Chirac taking it in the shorts, losing both domestic and international power. THAT is the good thing for America that came out of this.

castille · May 30, 2005, 01:48 am

You Americans better get your frigging dollar up again, otherwise I'm going to work for the French

Nono · May 30, 2005, 04:08 am

The euro will fall and the dollar rise -- temporarily. The French vote is a straw the US can grasp at, but only a fleeting straw.

dotcoma · May 31, 2005, 12:31 am

Nono, what do you base this on? You sound so certain, and do not really explain why.

Samildanach · May 31, 2005, 08:26 am

IMO I do not think it will have much effect on the dollar. The thing that affected the dollar the most was the Euro being formed and used as a european currency. The constitution didnt affect that, or change it in any significant way as far as I am aware. The EU is not finished because the constitution was not adopted. all that will happen is the streamlining will take a lot longer.

Nono · May 31, 2005, 08:36 am

Quote:

Quote by: Nono

The euro will fall and the dollar rise -- temporarily. The French vote is a straw the US can grasp at, but only a fleeting straw.

Quote:

Quote by: dotcoma

Nono, what do you base this on? You sound so certain, and do not really explain why.

See my signature, dot. I don't have a crystal ball.
But there are non-temporary structural realities such as the US engaging in massive foreign borrowing while its government attempts to defy fiscal gravity. And I don't thing that hijinks like invading Iraq for its oil can turn this around. There is already the beginning of a shift away from the dollar as reserve currency.

Mr.Vicchio · May 31, 2005, 09:17 am

The Euro fell over 1% on the vote by the French, there is uncertainty int he Euro now, and if the Netherlands votes No as well... You'll see the Euro fall further.

Why? Because the Euro is the monatary representation of the Strength of the EU, and if it can't get the Constitution ratified... that makes investor nervous.

Nono · May 31, 2005, 09:19 am

Everything makes investors nervous. They're the jitteriest flock of sheep going. But their jitters generally balance each other out over time, and what counts long term are long-term realities.

Samildanach · May 31, 2005, 11:05 am

Agreed. Europe has a strong fiscal base which they have done nothing to endanger by voting no on the constitution, its not like they are changing governments from a republican to a democrat one. They are effectively saying its the same as it was nothing better nothing worse.

rmnunez · Jun 1, 2005, 12:22 am

I wouldn't call the EU's fiscal base "strong", in fact it seems particularly weak. In large measure their fiscal base is contingent on the political integration of its members and this integration depends on shared views on the government's mission. As it appens, differences over the constitution appear to have a lot to do with the role ascribed to government. The constitution is failing because it assigns the future government more of a social role (and greater expenditure) than some believe is appropriate.

dotcoma · Jun 1, 2005, 03:21 pm

This just in: Dutch say no too: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4601439.stm

At least 62% say no.

View Poll Results: EU Constitution: Will France's no vote help the US?
Yes, the US dollar will rise because of this	4	50.00%
No, the EU will not be very hurt by this	4	50.00%
Other...	0	0%
Voters: 8. You may not vote

May 29, 2005, 07:15 pm	#2 (permalink) (top)
Mr.Vicchio Navy Veteran Location: Texas Posts: 6,031	I think it's good news for the Europeans, that "constitution" was a mess IMHO. That being said, the best thing that occured was Chirac taking it in the shorts, losing both domestic and international power. THAT is the good thing for America that came out of this. Einstein's "Theory of Relativity" is still being challenged to this day, but by consensus Global Warming is a fact... that's REAL science at work, why didn't Albert just go that route?

May 30, 2005, 01:48 am	#3 (permalink) (top)
castille Citizen #21521 Posts: 2,599	You Americans better get your frigging dollar up again, otherwise I'm going to work for the French Ideological loyalty is the act of giving your soul to a vague concept, to be manipulated by people smarter than you.

May 30, 2005, 04:08 am	#4 (permalink) (top)
Nono Throbbing Member Location: Old Europe Posts: 6,904	The euro will fall and the dollar rise -- temporarily. The French vote is a straw the US can grasp at, but only a fleeting straw. "I wish I was as cocksure of anything as Tom Macaulay is of everything." -- Viscount Melbourne

May 31, 2005, 08:26 am	#6 (permalink) (top)
Samildanach Pragmatist Location: UK London Posts: 1,979	IMO I do not think it will have much effect on the dollar. The thing that affected the dollar the most was the Euro being formed and used as a european currency. The constitution didnt affect that, or change it in any significant way as far as I am aware. The EU is not finished because the constitution was not adopted. all that will happen is the streamlining will take a lot longer. I wouldn't recommend sex, drugs and insanity for everyone, but its always worked for me. Never think that war, no matter how necessary, nor how justified, is not a crime." (Ernest Hemingway)

May 31, 2005, 12:31 am	#5 (permalink) (top)
dotcoma Volcanic Erupter Posts: 3,154	Nono, what do you base this on? You sound so certain, and do not really explain why.

May 31, 2005, 09:17 am	#8 (permalink) (top)
Mr.Vicchio Navy Veteran Location: Texas Posts: 6,031	The Euro fell over 1% on the vote by the French, there is uncertainty int he Euro now, and if the Netherlands votes No as well... You'll see the Euro fall further. Why? Because the Euro is the monatary representation of the Strength of the EU, and if it can't get the Constitution ratified... that makes investor nervous. Einstein's "Theory of Relativity" is still being challenged to this day, but by consensus Global Warming is a fact... that's REAL science at work, why didn't Albert just go that route?

May 31, 2005, 09:19 am	#9 (permalink) (top)
Nono Throbbing Member Location: Old Europe Posts: 6,904	Everything makes investors nervous. They're the jitteriest flock of sheep going. But their jitters generally balance each other out over time, and what counts long term are long-term realities. "I wish I was as cocksure of anything as Tom Macaulay is of everything." -- Viscount Melbourne

May 31, 2005, 11:05 am	#10 (permalink) (top)
Samildanach Pragmatist Location: UK London Posts: 1,979	Agreed. Europe has a strong fiscal base which they have done nothing to endanger by voting no on the constitution, its not like they are changing governments from a republican to a democrat one. They are effectively saying its the same as it was nothing better nothing worse. I wouldn't recommend sex, drugs and insanity for everyone, but its always worked for me. Never think that war, no matter how necessary, nor how justified, is not a crime." (Ernest Hemingway)

Jun 1, 2005, 12:22 am	#11 (permalink) (top)
rmnunez Volcanic Erupter Location: Mexico City Posts: 4,772	I wouldn't call the EU's fiscal base "strong", in fact it seems particularly weak. In large measure their fiscal base is contingent on the political integration of its members and this integration depends on shared views on the government's mission. As it appens, differences over the constitution appear to have a lot to do with the role ascribed to government. The constitution is failing because it assigns the future government more of a social role (and greater expenditure) than some believe is appropriate.

Jun 1, 2005, 03:21 pm	#12 (permalink) (top)
dotcoma Volcanic Erupter Posts: 3,154	This just in: Dutch say no too: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4601439.stm At least 62% say no.