Iran Attack Imminent

[DragonFly]

My notes are in parentheses.

1 August 2012 Last updated at 13:12 ET

Netanyahu says US warnings not enough to stop Iran
US defence secretary Leon Panetta said the US and Israel were working to "preserve peace in the future"

(A done deal.)


Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said US assurances about military options are not enough to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

Mr Netanyahu said the Iranians believe the international community "does not have the will" to stop Iran.

He spoke after visiting US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta reiterated Washington's line that military action was an option against Iran.

Iran maintains that its nuclear programme is for civilian energy uses.

"Right now the Iranian regime believes that the international community does not have the will to stop its nuclear programme," Mr Netanyahu said at the prime minister's residence in Jerusalem.

He told the Pentagon chief: "You yourself said a few months ago that when all else fails, America will act. But these declarations have also not yet convinced the Iranians to stop their programme.

(So that Israel is allowed to start it alone.)


The Obama administration continues to publicly push for financial and diplomatic pressure to force Iran to change its modus operandi. Further sanctions were laid out by the White House yesterday, the timing perfectly synchronised for Mr Panetta's arrival in Israel.

But shortly after the visit to the Iron Dome site, Mr Panetta heard Mr Netanyahu's carefully worded scepticism towards sanctions.

Should Israel's hard talk turn to action, the Israeli Defense Forces do not have the same military capabilities as the US. They are thought to have only nine or 10 tankers that permit refuelling of planes in the air, and Iran is not exactly 'next door'.

But Yaakov Katz, co-author of Israel vs Iran: The Shadow War, says the Israeli military has the capability to do "just enough" damage, setting the Iranian nuclear programme back by one to three years.

(That will be good enough for now.)


"This must change, and it must change quickly because time to resolve this issue peacefully is running out."

(It will happen soon.)


On Tuesday, US President Barack Obama ordered new economic sanctions against Iran's energy sector and some financial firms.

(This still helps.)


Earlier on Wednesday, Mr Panetta toured Israel's "Iron Dome" rocket defence shield south of Tel Aviv with Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak.
Mr Barak also said he thought there was an "extremely low" probability that international economic sanctions would prove enough to stop Iran.

Mr Panetta said repeatedly on Wednesday that "all options" including military force were on the table to stop Iran, should sanctions and diplomacy fail.

But he also said: "[Israel's] effort to decide what is in their national security interest is something that must be left up to the Israelis."

(The Israelis will do it.)


The US has cautioned Israel against taking unilateral action against Iran, and Israel's current army chief has expressed reservations.

(In order to look good now, but will have to join later on.)


Speaking to an Israeli television station on Tuesday, Mr Netanyahu hinted that Israel might act alone despite American misgivings.

"With our very existence, we do not put our faith in the hands of others, even our best of friends," he said.

(It will happen.)


The visit by Mr Panetta comes as the Obama administration announced $70m (£45m) in new military aid to help Israel expand its Iron Dome system.

(Getting more ready for Iranian and Hezbollah rockets and a wider war.)


Presidential challenger Mitt Romney visited Israeli at the weekend and met top officials. He has accused the Obama administration of not being supportive enough of Israel.

(Well, then I don’t know what more support would be. Secretly, there is probably a full commitment.)

[DragonFly]

…

Failure to achieve a breakthrough in latest round of nuclear talks exposes the wide gaps remaining between Iran and world powers, James Reynolds reports.

(The talks are over.)

(August will pass, for vacations to end, for building up the defense dome, and for the new sanctions to do more damage, unless there is an overriding necessity.)

[DragonFly]

Operation ‘Fire’ was now underway. A few moments ago, the Israeli Defense Minister had been on the phone to the American President, who replied, just before hanging up, “Thanks for the notice… and God speed.”

Six Israeli jets were already in the air, one far out in front, three in the middle, and two lagging back, all of them quickly approaching the Iranian border. The Defense Minister and his aides had gathered around the computer screens.

“We almost waited too long,” said one. The S-500 site is only partly completed.”

“It can still operate. Yes, indeed, why did we wait so long after a madman made a public promise to destroy us?”

“Yes, especially when such a boast would only make our actions tonight all the more necessary and right in the eyes of the world?”

“We are getting soft.”

“Maybe.”

“Iran is even isolated from its Muslim neighbors.”

“Insanity.”

“The jets have crossed the border, sir.”

The S-500 antiaircraft system came to life, noting one blip and taking out the lead Israeli aircraft. But it was only a drone, carrying no one and nothing of interest but a missile now tracking out of the debris and down through the sky toward the S-500 site, its approach obscured, at first.

“They will never see it coming; they will glory in the kill and will not even be checking their radars for a second or two.”

They didn’t, and so a large part of the S-500 apparatus was soon destroyed, the next three jets finishing the job and continuing on, the two jets in the rear now closing through the freed sky.

“What’s with those last two jets, sir? Are they special?”

“Ah, you do not have security clearance for that.”

“Indeed, I do.”

“Yes, you do. I am joking. Suppose that our bunker buster missiles do not complete the job, the Iranian site being too deep, as it is rumored to be?”

“Then they could salvage it, and if it was far enough along in its enrichment process…”

“Yes…”

“Are you telling me what I think you’re telling me?”

“Yes.”

“The first wave is at the target, sir, and dumping the bunker-busters.”

“Get me the live satellite on my screen. Analysis?”
…

“Those lines are the depths reached by the bunker-busters, sir. That block still beneath is the nuclear plant as newly illuminated by a special probe that we sent in first.”

“No good, was it?”

“The busters did not reach the target, sir.”

“The Defense Minister transmitted a code to the last two jets and then bowed his head in prayer.”

All waited.
…

“They’ve dropped their nukes, sir, fighting fire with fire.”

[Zeebadee]

You emulating Tom Clancy?

[Charlatan]

INstead of sanctions, why don;t they put in place a tax for the poor of the world, so there is actually some good done?

[Yarn]

Nuclear weapons threaten annihilation and mass starvation on an international scale from nuclear winter. They also cause impoverishment and suffering by diverting money from economic infrastructure, education, and social programs.



Those at greatest risk from nuclear weapons are the poor because they have the greatest need for social programs and help affording education. They will also be the first to starve in the event of a nuclear winter.

[Thanatos]

Yawn. This Iran attack imminent garbage has been around since before I got internet. Would you believe me if I said it's an elaborate plot to make money off gold prices?

Anyone who thinks Iran would use nukes if they had them is wrong. Israel has megaton-scale bombs and neutron weapons; every living thing in the Trinitite field formerly known as Iran would be dead within an hour. While hopefully her allies would show some restraint and not use enough nukes to mess with Earth's climate in response to one single bomb, that's not out of the question.

[Yarn]

Even if Iran's nuclear posture were purely defensive, a false alarm could still incite an exchange. More likely, it would, as almost all nuclear countries have at one point or another, play chicken-ie see what it could and could not get away with. One of the most famous examples of playing chicken is the Cuban missile crisis. More recently, in the immediate aftermath of successfully testing nuclear weapons, Pakistan invaded Indian controlled Kashmir, mistakenly believing that the threat of nuclear war would convince India not to mount a decisive response.

[Zeebadee]

Just what we need. A little nuclear winter to offset the effects of global warming.

[Yarn]

Going too far in the other direction isn't a good solution.

Albeit, yes geoengineering is the cheaper more likely more risky way of countering global warming. Sufficient emissions reductions on time are extremely improbable, so geoengineering is going to be our only way of buying ourselves enough time to get over fossil fuels.

[DragonFly]

Israel Arrow Missile

JERUSALEM -- Israel has upgraded its top-tier Arrow II missile defense, a Defense Ministry official confirmed Sunday, as the country girds for possible attacks from Iran and Syria.

Sensors, command and control equipment and radar have been enhanced to improve reach and accuracy, the official confirmed without elaborating. He would not say how many Arrow II batteries are deployed around the country and spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the military's preparations.

Israel has developed a network of air defense systems to parry various threats it sees from its enemies, including the Arrow, a joint project with the Boeing Co. in the U.S. that is designed to shoot down incoming missiles launched as far away as Iran.

Separately, the Haaretz newspaper reported on Sunday that the Arrow has been configured to take down not only long-range missiles but projectiles fired from closer range, such as neighboring Syria or Lebanon. On Saturday, Iran claimed it successfully test-fired an upgraded version of a ballistic missile with such a range that it said could strike with pin-point precision.

Israel regards Iran as its main enemy and suspects Tehran is building nuclear weapons despite its denials. Last week, in a public appearance in Jerusalem with U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that time was quickly running out to stop Iran from achieving nuclear capability.

Israel is also rattled by Iran's arsenal of missiles capable of striking the Jewish state, its frequent talk of Israel's annihilation, and its alliances with anti-Israel militants in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, who control tens of thousands of rockets.

A former director of the Arrow program, Uzi Rubin, told Army Radio on Sunday that the system could handle any missile coming from Iran.

"I can't say that every incoming missile will be knocked down. There isn't 100 percent protection and not everything is a success. But for every single missile coming from Iran there is a single Arrow missile capable of intercepting it one for one."

On Saturday, Iran claimed it successfully test-fired an upgraded version of a short-range ballistic missile with a range of 300 kilometers (185 miles). Announcing the missile test, Iranian Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi said, "the Zionist regime knows that attacking Iran is a desire out of its reach unless it wants to commit suicide."

…