China eclipses US as largest consumer. Will China attempt to become the Hegemon?

[dotcoma]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4272577.stm

China has overtaken the US in the consumption of basic agricultural and industrial goods, a survey has found. With a booming economy and 1.3bn people, it is now the world's largest consumer of grain, meat, coal and steel, said the Earth Policy Institute. But China's insatiable demands are putting ever more pressure on the country's natural resources. Air and water pollution are already serious problems, and there is talk of a looming ecological crisis. China is well ahead of the US in the consumption of goods such as television sets, refrigerators and mobile phones, according to the Washington-based Earth Policy Institute. However, per capita consumption in China - the world's most populous country - remains far below that of the US.

Do you think this increased consumption of natural and produced resources will cause a power struggle between the US and China? (especially over oil). How do you think a war with China would play out? Who would ally who, etc. Does the immense trade relationship we have with China make war a non-issue?

[Nono]

In my view, the Chinese aren't into power struggles they know they couldn't win. They're more into regional hegemony. They will continue to give the US enough rope to hang itself in "the war on terror" while cultivating alternative sources of oil supply such as Sudan.

I should think that Chinese power over the fate of the US dollar is alone enough to keep the Americans sweet. (The Tien An Men massacre was a long time ago, right?)

[tinybear]

In Shanghai, offices have to stop work in the middle of the day because of power shortage. Does this happen in New York?

[bishop]

Do you think this increased consumption of natural and produced resources will cause a power struggle between the US and China? (especially over oil). How do you think a war with China would play out? Who would ally who, etc. Does the immense trade relationship we have with China make war a non-issue?

we've already managed to thwart chinese oil interests in both afghanistan (a war i've always supported) and iraq.. we've even attempted to do the same with sudan and venezuela in different ways. china is allying itself with virtually every country that we don't have positive relations with, along with russia. china is already a world power, and is poised to become an even stronger power in the future. the catch 22 for us is that the corruption of money in politics has persuaded our politicians to constantly grant most favored nation status to china for a long time now. the chinese were smart enough to take these offerings, but also pursue their own agenda in their own national interests. now, as their interests require more trade with other countries, they've come into conflict with our own (imperial) interests.

i'm not sure if we'd have a direct war with china though.. most likely we'd have a proxy war with them, like we did in both korea and vietnam. there's a block of countries in asia, namely russia, china, syria and iran (possibly egypt, saudi arabia and north korea) who seem to be allying themselves together. in latin america, brazil and venezuela have been forming alliances with those countries (primarily china) as well.

right now, our military is stretched ridiculously thin. not to mention our bursting budget deficits. if we were to try and instigate yet another war, it's possible that this bloc of countries can group together to defend against us. we've managed to piss off the rest of the world to the point, while weakening out capabilities, so that blocs like this can be made possible. we will not have europe's support in this either, as europeans would also like to see us deposed as the global hegemon.

and, like nono said, the chinese have us by the balls with their holdings of dollars. they could easily engage themselves in economic warfare and expose us to our macroeconomic imbalances.

[allen]

China becomes the larget consumer of some goods not by her ambitions, but by her populations. China's goal, in the near future, is to become a regional power in eastern Asia, and take Taiwan back. She does not want to challenge US's role in the world. Taiwan is the only place where China and US can come into a conflict (note: taiwan is the 3rd largest holder of US dollars).

As of natural resource (especially oil), I don't think the competition can cause direct conflict. Japan has been the second largest importer of oil for decades, but has been in harmony with US ...

The fact that China buying more goods poses more opportunitis than threats to US.

[allen]

Quote by: bishop the catch 22 for us is that the corruption of money in politics has persuaded our politicians to constantly grant most favored nation status to china for a long time now. the chinese were smart enough to take these offerings, but also pursue their own agenda in their own national interests. now, as their interests require more trade with other countries, they've come into conflict with our own (imperial) interests.

As far as I know, the most favored nation status is just called that way. It is a non-discrimination status, and is required by WTO rules.

[bishop]

you're right, the wto negated the mfn status.. although, there's a sort of symbolic/diplomatic value to that title. regardless of that, i believe we've continued to make bilateral deals with china in recent years.

[Richard 23]

Quote by: dotcoma Do you think this increased consumption of natural and produced resources will cause a power struggle between the US and China? (especially over oil). How do you think a war with China would play out? Who would ally who, etc. Does the immense trade relationship we have with China make war a non-issue?

These are all very important questions. And I don't have the answers only opinions.

Quote by: dotcoma Do you think this increased consumption of natural and produced resources will cause a power struggle between the US and China? (especially over oil).

Most definitely. Although I don't suspect it will be an overt struggle, we will be competing for a steady or decreasing supply of oil, if peak oil is correct and upon us. This inevitability is the general reason for PNAC (Project for the New American Century) and their strategy as described in Rebuilding America's Defenses which they first suggested to President Clinton in 1998. Essentially gain some leverage or control over some of the world's major oil reserves to gain control of our own destiny and have influence over others in the world while we have the advantage of being the sole remaining superpower. Strike while we still have the chance. That's what Iraq is all about. Gain a foothold, then try to remake the rest of the Middle East so that it is more "friendly" by whatever means are necessary (including the use of force). The new Pearl Harbor, axis of evil, Iraq, reshaping the Middle East, it's all there. It's pretty amorally brilliant but very risky and costly in terms of blood and treasure and image and character and ....

Quote by: dotcoma How do you think a war with China would play out?

Just as it has. I thought China long ago said something to the effect that having a [nuclear] war with the west would be stupid and suicidal, they were going to beat us economically. And so they put a Chinese form of capitalism in place and invited the world, and damn if our patriotic corportations didn't pitch in. They were so enthusiastic a lot of those patriotic corporations pulled up stakes and moved all their manufacturing to China. And why not, corportations may have the rights of people but they have no morality, no soul only the desire to maximize profit for their owners and stockholders. We all pitched in too and Walmart makes it even easier, so do our new low-wage service jobs. China's more than happy to buy up our debt now, they almost have to with our huge trade deficit. When we're getting to the point where we're overdrawn and can't borrow from anyone else, it'll be time to cash in. Pay up, or we own you. The war's over.

I suppose we could say hell no and start a good old fashioned hot war, but then we're screwing the whole world along with China and ourselves. We're not suicide bombers.

Quote by: dotcoma Who would ally who, etc.

Every man for himself. Everyone would want to get the fuck out of the way. Nations have no way to run and nowhere to go. They'd wisely beg us both to knock it off. Help one pay the other. Anything but [thermonuclear] world war.

Quote by: dotcoma Does the immense trade relationship we have with China make war a non-issue?

You're kidding, right?

[asterix404]

China is building air craft carriers and other conventional weapons of war. We are training people to fight terrorist cells. They have a rather booming economy with US industry, we are dealing with companies who want to fuck the US over at any turn in return for campagn controbutions becasue it's cheeper. Personally I always figred what they made was our down fall. What would happen if china and japan were to say that they don't want to sell us any more technology.... no more dvd's cell phones, fiber optics, integrated computer chips, lap tops... the like. Almost everything that is high tech is build outside the US and for good reason. Cheep labor and no unions, a major corporations wet dream. This whole "infermational society is what we should strive for" BS is driving me nuts. I hear all teh time that an infermational socity is what people strive for, except that means you have no low-middle income wage earnerns who spent a lot of cash. That is death to any economy. China knows this, the whole world knows this.

A war with china however I don't think is out of the question but I think that given our trend of training against anti terror it would be pointless for the us to fight it. I also think that it would strain international relations to the point of another world war since I don't really see the US provoking China in any time about anything, esp human rights. By this point I would have to say screw tienemen squair... that isn't even the closest human rights atrocity... how about the coal mines in china where on average 6-10k people die on any given year becasue of gass expolsions, mine colapses, and just about any other horrable thing that can go wrong in a mine with people who are more concerned with profits then laborers.

[castille]

If the US declares war on China because the Americans want to control the region, then so be it. There is nothing anyone can do about it. I'll simply sign up to defend the country.

China itself has no reason for war. There's already too much land/people to control, natural resources can be gained cheaper through trade, not to mention China doesn't have an aggressive history (compared to the West).

But if the US invades, they'd better expect a tough fight. China's army isn't as good as the American army, but China didn't have much of an army in 1937 either, and Japan had to use nearly 70% of her army to unsuccessfully conquer China.

Personally I wouldn't want to see a war, I see great benefit in a Sino-American cooperation, but many Americans are too ignorant and hateful of us "gooks" to want peace (ask McArthur). China was invaded in 1850 even though we never did anything hostile, and I expect the same thing to happen again.

[oranged]

Quote by: dotcoma http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4272577.stm Do you think this increased consumption of natural and produced resources will cause a power struggle between the US and China? (especially over oil). How do you think a war with China would play out? Who would ally who, etc. Does the immense trade relationship we have with China make war a non-issue?

China is buying up oil companies as insurance on it's economy, so that it no longer needs US support, I think war is a definite possibility, and if US doesn't insure it's economy, it's sure to lose that war. As for hegamony, that may be China's aim, but North Korea, and the European Union won't allow it. Even though China has drawn Russia into an effective military relationship.

[righthand]

Quote by: tinybear In Shanghai, offices have to stop work in the middle of the day because of power shortage. Does this happen in New York?

Is this true or just another myth?

Was there a virtual North Continent black-out sometime ago or is that a myth?

Was Canada not blamed first?

Or was that just a knee-jerk reaction myth?

Maybe by now it is Canada's fault, like the UN, but not the US.