Bin Laden Strikes Out in Iraq

[RickSp]

An interesting perspective on Osama Bin Laden's recent video by Juan Cole. Cole is aprofessor of history at University of Michigan and one of the more insightful Middle Eastern scholars.

Bin Laden's intervention in Iraq was ham-fisted and clumsy, and will benefit the United States and the Shi'ites enormously. Most Iraqi Muslims, Sunni or Shi'ite, dislike the Wahhabi branch of Islam prevalent in Saudi Arabia, with which bin Laden is associated. Nationalistic Iraqis will object to a foreigner interfering in their national affairs. Bin Laden as much as declared Grand Ayatollah Sistani an infidel. But Sistani is almost universally loved by the 65% of Iraqis who are Shi'ites, and is widely respected among many Sunni Arabs, Kurds, and Turkmen, as well. Bin Laden, the Saudi engineer, makes himself look ridiculous trying to give a fatwa against the Grand Ayatollah of Najaf. If anything, to have al-Qaeda menacing the Shi'ites in this way would tend to strengthen the American-Shi'ite alliance. If bin Laden had been politically clever, he would have phrased his message in terms of Iraqi nationalism. By siding with the narrowest sliver of Sunni extremists, he denied himself any real impact. By adopting Zarqawi, who has killed many more Iraqis (especially Shi'ites) than he has Americans, he simply tarnishes his own image inside Iraq.

Bin Laden Strikes Out

[Zeebadee]

"If bin Laden had been politically clever, he would have phrased his message in terms of Iraqi nationalism. By siding with the narrowest sliver of Sunni extremists, he denied himself any real impact. By adopting Zarqawi, who has killed many more Iraqis (especially Shi'ites) than he has Americans, he simply tarnishes his own image inside Iraq."

This is the typical American political approach. If doing what you believe in doesn't get you enough political support, just change what you believe.

" Bin Laden's intervention in Iraq was ham-fisted and clumsy, and will benefit the United States and the Shi'ites enormously. Most Iraqi Muslims, Sunni or Shi'ite, dislike the Wahhabi branch of Islam prevalent in Saudi Arabia, with which bin Laden is associated. Nationalistic Iraqis will object to a foreigner interfering in their national affairs."

As opposed to the slick and smooth invasion of their country by the U.S. And we are to believe that the Iraqis will object more to a foreigner making political statements than they will to a foreign invasion and the forcing this whole election farce??

[RickSp]

What an odd response. It sounds like you are suggesting that you admire Osama for not changing his message to suit the audience.

I just thought Cole's perspective was interesting. Cole is harshly critical of the US invasion and is highly attuned to the Iraqi viewpoint represented by the various factions. He is aware of the subtleties and not no subtle differences between the Sunnis, Shia, Kurds, Turkemen and the others. I find it interesting that Osama has been so tone deaf in appealing to all but a small minority faction of Iraqis.

[Matt W]

Maybe he's being blinded by his own press, so-to-speak? I mean, he's become almost synonymous with striking America - so maybe he genuinely believes that he is admired throughout the Islamic world?

[Zeebadee]

Quote by: RickSp What an odd response. It sounds like you are suggesting that you admire Osama for not changing his message to suit the audience.

Not at all. But it seems to me that we continue to misunderstand the ideology that drives some of these people, and that therefore they may not be susceptible to the same forms of incentives and intimidations that we assume a rational person would be. Threaten a normal, rational man with massive force, and of course, he'll back down. The same threat against a fanatic could get you some entirely unpredictable response. Cole's article seems to imply that he believes that he's dealing with a rational man, as he's evidently surprised that Osama didn't do what Cole considers to be the smart move and compromise his ideology to gain political support.

The same could be said of the Bush regime. They seem to have fully expected the Iraqis to be thoroughly intimidated into submission by the overwhelming strength of the American military. The fact that the religious fanatics of the insurgency aren't impressed in the least by the apparent strength and invincibility of the Americam military seems to have caught our war planners totally by surprise.

This is why I believe the war can not be won. These people aren't going to easily give up their principles and accept an American installed government. They are under no time limit, and they are fighting on their own ground. We can beat them farther and farther down, but they will simply bide their time and wait for their opportunities to strike back. Some of them will never give up.