Iraqi Election numbers whats the outcome?

[saif]

Many know that elections are scheduled to take place Iraq, However, what will those elections include? Scheduled for January 30th, Iraqi voters will elect a 275 member transitional assembly and a new prime minister. Kurdish citizens will also choose an 111 member autonomous parliament. Beginning December 15th, more than 200 parties will begin campaigning with proportional representation based on its‘ party lists. Rules state that every third candidate on a party list must be a woman. Any member of a militia as well as any current army official is disqualified from voting. This includes ex-bathists who held any particular office. There will be some 9,000 polling stations for the 24,0001,816 (est. July 2002) citizens, The Iraqi government states the number of shias is 55 - 65%, Most Iraqi shias are Arabs - almost all of which are Kurds. 19% of the population are sunnis, 13% of which are sunni Arabs. The rest of the population consists of small minorities including some Christians and Jews.

It can easily be seen from these numbers where Iraqs political atmosphere is moving towards. Iranian shia’s have mobilized and have produced a vast list of candidates to run. Therefore, thwarting the U.S. placed Allawi, the united states only ally in the political mainstream… Allawi has even gone so far as removing Iraqi ambassadors to the us so that he has a main line….. After these forced elections take place I can see two very identifiable futures, 1) another Ukraine situation, this time leading to complete civil war and chaos. Or 2) Iranian Shia’s in control of Iraq, which would mean more occupational protesting and anti us sentiments over boiling.

[saif]

A conflict perhaps?

LAW OF ADMINISTRATION FOR THE STATE OF IRAQ
FOR THE TRANSITIONAL PERIOD

Article 4.
The system of government in Iraq shall be republican, federal, democratic, and pluralistic, and powers shall be shared between the federal government and the regional governments, governorates, municipalities, and local administrations. The federal system shall be based upon geographic and historical realities and the separation of powers, and not upon origin, race, ethnicity, nationality, or confession.

Article 7.
A) Islam is the official religion of the State and is to be considered a source of legislation. No law that contradicts the universally agreed tenets of Islam, the principles of democracy, or the rights cited in Chapter Two of this Law may be enacted during the transitional period. This Law respects the Islamic identity of the majority of the Iraqi people and guarantees the full religious rights of all individuals to freedom of religious belief and practice.

as i stated before ...."Islam as an institution is unable detach itself from its governmental capacities. “political freedom in the West emerged out of a centuries-long struggle between the Church and its religious opponents. Tolerance slowly emerged as the only feasible alternative to intra-religious conflict.” “It may therefore take a long time before the proponents of "Islamic democracy," to abandon their efforts and realize that no nation can be governed effectively simply on the basis of Islamic law.”

[giuliano]

traditionally such elections have been decided by support from various groups. in the past these included the US, russia, or other neighbouring powers.

basically now interfering in such elections will land you in big trouble from the US, unless of course you are in fact the US.

so the US-backed candidate will most likely win. as he did in afghanistan.

[saif]

as much as I am inclined to agree after posting ing of America Election style. Although I belief that there comes a point to where a diaper cannot possibly keep holding all of the shit... thats when your hands get dirty....

[giuliano]

are you saying the US will interfere (dirty hands)?

[saif]

Quote by: giuliano are you saying the US will interfere (dirty hands)?

the united states spends well over a billion dollars a year influencing democracies all over the world.. which really breaks down into a few key countries each year. They change the atmosphere, as do other governments (hopefully not by poisoning the candidates though) by manipulating all forms of media as well as by supporting variousbusiness and academic think tanks..

[rmnunez]

The winner will be the last gringo puppet still standing.

[saif]

They might as well just play RUSSIAN ROULETTE for the PRESIDENCy.

[rmnunez]

Actually the idea is proportional representation which has had great success across Europe. The majority of the country is Shia and religion makes a difference, but they are Arab Shia (something the Iranians are not). The model of Islamic fundamentalism profered from Teheran is not attractive to the average Iraqi Shia, most will not be voting with the hope of recreating Iranian style Ayatollaism in Iraq. The Kurds have a good deal and will turn out to endorse it, they are also overwhelmingly Shia and will vote for their own, but not for something even remotely Persian. The Sunnis are the ones taking a beating, but they held the stick long enough under Saddam.

[giuliano]

it's all fine and good to talk about 'propotional representation', but as you said the shias will hold the balance of power. fundamentally in a democracy, this means they hold power over the legislature, executive and even judiciary.

[rmnunez]

Yes but they are not as 'shitty' as the Shias in Iraq. There are fundamentalists among them, but this is a minority, most Iraqi Shia are just religiously and not politically committed. Iran will interfere because the last thing they want next door is a viable Shia democracy.