Latest Gallup Stabs Local Liberal in Heart (me)

Latest Gallup shows bigger bounce
http://www.gallup.com/poll/content/default...t.aspx?ci=13066

Bush Bounce Keeps On Going President leads Kerry by 13 points among likely voters; 8 points among registered voters PRINCETON, NJ -- In a new Gallup Poll, conducted Sept. 13-15, President George W. Bush leads Democratic candidate John Kerry by 55% to 42% among likely voters, and by 52% to 44% among registered voters. These figures represent a significant improvement for Bush since just before the beginning of the Republican National Convention. In the immediate aftermath of that convention, a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll showed Bush receiving a modest bounce from his standing before the convention. Among likely voters, Bush's support was up two points and Kerry's was down two points. Among the larger sample of registered voters, Bush's support was up two points, while Kerry's was unchanged.  The bounce was small, whether measured among the likely or the registered voter groups, so that it was well within the margin of error of the post-convention poll. Given the sample sizes of the two groups, one could not say with 95% certainty that Bush's support had actually increased. http://www.gallup.com/poll/content/default...t.aspx?ci=13066

Terrible news. November is right around the corner. When's the Kerry team going to get their act together? I'm all ready to bust into the campaign headquarters and start throwing some papers around erm lol.

[harumscarum]

I am sure there will be a little bounce. The media would really like a close election to help boost their profits.

I thought I saw on Headline News this morning that they were tied in the Pew Poll (whichever one that is).

I really believe most people already have their minds made up. I fail to see anything that has changed since they were neck and neck besides a little fear mongering by the ®s.

These are a bunch of random sentences.

[bishop]

i wouldn't put my faith in these polls. and you should take heed of the last sentence in the quote you posted.

the economist did a bit of research into these post-convention polls and found some interesting discrepancies..

http://www.economist.com/World/na/displayS...tory_id=3177113

[Technosoul]

I agree with Bishop, don't count the chickens til the eggs hatch, a poll is useless based on one fact alone, not everyone taking part in a survey would show up at the voting booth.

Hmmm, think I will conduct my own poll right here.

Technosoul.

[ericsp23]

The polls seem to be all over the place lately. Some have Bush with a commanding lead while others have him with just a slight lead. I wouldn't get too worried just yet. Things are starting to get ugly in Iraq again, and Bush's numbers always fall when that happens. Plus, the debates will start in a few weeks, which I think will help Kerry more than Bush.

[Compugasm]

42% among likely voters

Likely voters? I don't recall this in polls before. Swing voters? 42%? yeesh. Last month it was like 30%. These polls make me sleepy.

[bishop]

the economist article mentioned that,

The Time and Gallup polls surveyed likely voters (likely in the opinion of pollsters). But polls of registered voters are usually regarded as more accurate.

[rcne]

Regardless of polls, as has been mentioned before - time is running out. If Kerry is to make a difference - he must do so soon.

This dwelling on a 30 year in the past crap is crazy. Who really cares, what was - was. Both sides are doing their damn-best to make 'it' and issue.

Both sides souled be addressing the future and how they can get us there.

It doesn't look good for Kerry - unless he does something. Bush keeps shooting himself in the foot and yet Bush is still at worst statistically tied with Kerry. Go figure.

[bishop]

something that i don't really get..

every single day, kerry is out there campaigning and spreading his message. he's constantly talking about the issues, yet the general public seems to think that all he's talking about is vietnam. honestly, i don't get it. just to grab a meddley of articles from cnn (although if you go to any other sight, you'll find just as wide an assortment of substantive articles):

about haliburton
about iraq
about bush's record
about bush being honest with the public
about iraq and healthcare

and, their differences on a wide assortment of issues

kerry's been hitting back at bush big time. maybe people are too busy complaining and/or looking at polls than actually listening and informing themselves?

[rcne]

I visit CNN on a regular basis, and I don't recall seeing much. I'll look closer next time I'm on that site.

You may have a point, and I may have missed these articles. The problem is - if I missed them - how many more have missed them.

[bishop]

yeah.. that's pretty much what i don't exactly understand. even on tv, i'm always hearing kerry talk about non-vietnam issues. methinks that all this hubub about the polls has temporarily altered the public's perception of the campaign. obviously the public at large is affected by the media, i just didn't realize that it had that much of an impact.

as the days pass, these polls are coming under increased scrutiny - possibly because most people don't see this huge poll jump that the polls (and media) claim exists. and, so long as kerry stays on message, eventually people will come to realize that he is talking about very important issues.

and then the debates will happen, which imo, will make or break kerry's chance at winning the election.

Here's the pew poll that people have been clinging to-saying it's still a tie (http://people-press.org/reports/display.ph...p3?ReportID=224). The #'s still aren't good. Look at who they think will win, who's better for Iraq, terror, etc. :(

[rcne]

I checked CNN, some say ignore the polls, some say Kerry is moving to the left, some democratic strategist don't understand what he's doing?

Kerry is repeating 'old news' - Halibuton and such. Though I did not go over every article - I will over the weekend.

Maybe the debate will bring something new to the voters. The trouble is 'Time'.

Isn't it amazing these guys have been campaigning for two years - and we still don't know definitely where they stand. We think we know - but do we?

[Mr.Vicchio]

Hey Bishop, have you considered that MAYBE Kerry's problem is that he has not managed to formulate a clear, consice message that has galvanized voters out side of his voter base? Hell one that has excited his base to vote FOR him vice against Bush?

Thats where Kerry is flailing and Bush is Cruising along. The DNC convention was a disaster, period. Ask 50 people what they remember about the DNC convention and see how many people say "I'm John Kerry, and I'm reporting for Duty!"

The RNC convention may not have done a whole lot for swing voters and the like, but it glavanized and excited the GOP to vote FOR Bush vice against Kerry.

See the difference?

[bishop]

kerry has formulated a clear, concise message. his platform has been available for public consumption for months. clearly, he's not the energetic campaigner that bush is (bush seems to like campaigning more than his actual job), but that shouldn't really matter to those looking more for substance than for form.

the conventions had the same effect on each respective group of partisans. funny that you aren't talking about bias in the media now that they're talking about so-called double digit leads. personally, i don't remember anything from the rnc either. i do remember bush standing up there, though, and giving a speech that he's given several times before - namely, in 2000 and in his last state of the union. although this time around, he included even less details than the previous times (and bush is detail-phobic).

i'm fine with you bushistas heckling and holding up poll numbers as if they were solid facts, rather than flawed guesses/propaganda. you have to take that angle, especially since you can't campaign on bush's record - the dismal one that it is. i'll just wait for the debates, and listen as kerry continues to point all of these things out to the public.

[Mr.Vicchio]

I hav ebeen talking media bias all the time. Funny how you ignored CBS and memogate. Media bias? Pushing fake papers against Bush... nah not media bias...

Your wrong Bishop, step bak and read the panic in the DNC, Kerry didn't excite his base he gave a crappy speech that fell short of the mark, thats why Kerry got a 3% "bounce" in the polls. in ANY poll.

Kerrys been bleeding since and starting to flame out, if he cannot pull off a great first debate...

[bishop]

i ignored the cbs nonsense, just as i have ignored the swift boat nonsense and everything else related to the vietnam days. i've never given any sort of position on that issue aside from pointing out that one volunteered to fight while the other volunteered to campaign. you clearly like wasting time debating those non-issues, i don't.

and as i've said, these polls don't amount to a hill of beans. all they are is fodder for partisans. the crappiness of one's speech is in the eye of the beholder apparently. i'm sure you were deeply moved by bush's brand spankin new speech.

the bushistas are gloating so much about the polls now because, as they always have been, they're deeply afraid that bush might just lose. especially since his record of failures speaks for itself.

[Mr.Vicchio]

It wasn't the memos content... oh never mind, your hopeless Bishop. Go read your marching orders from Terry and tell us what he told you to think and care about.

The Memogate is about CBS news refusing to admit they ran fake memo's as the real deal and got caught by the net...

that's the story, thats why ABC and the Washington post among others have been runnign with it, CBS blew it and Rather's risking taking a serious header off the anchor chair.

[bishop]

i'm hopeless??? i'm not the one giving any consideration to what cbs news said/argued. it has absolutely NOTHING to do with bush's presidential record and the policies of either candidate. what, exactly, do you not understand here?

maybe you need to unplug your head from major media. unless you like being told what to think, in which case, switch off to fox - i'm sure you'll find their spin much more tasty.

[Mr.Vicchio]

Bishop... last time:

1. Its not what CBS said. Okay? Got it?

2. Its not what the MEMOS said okay got it?

3. Its that the Memo's are fake, CBS pushed them as real, got caught and have been fighting it tooth and nail. Okay got it?

4. WHY are they fighting this so pig headedly, and who are they protecting? Thats Question 1.

5. How reaching will this be in terms of CBS as a credible news organization?
Question 2.

6. The dawn of teh "new Media" as force happened when Dan Rather was beaten down by internet web bloggers.