20% chance McCain will die

[ShadowFox]

I first heard it on the news, and i have found an article with the numbers.

The chances that Vice President Sarah Palin would have to take over from President John McCain if they were elected could be as high as 40%, since McCain has about a 20% chance of dying in office, and a much higher risk of becoming disabled from a variety of conditions, including a stroke or Alzheimer's, both diseases which can impair judgment and where the risks increase very rapidly with age, notes Professor John Banzhaf of George Washington University.

Sarah Palin: 40% Chance to Take Over as President // McCain Has Only 80% Odds of Living Out A Presidency

A 20% chance that McCain will die in his first term. What do you guys think about this?

[Okieslims]

I think the Professor is trying to scare the public a bit. I don't doubt that there is a chance of McCain dying during his first term, but he seems to be in good condition and he gets around fine. I think the chance is much lower than 20%.

[ShadowFox]

He's had 5 fights with skin cancer, has a tumor on his cheek and all sorts of problems. I think 20% is a good number

[Okieslims]

I wasnt aware of the tumor..

[Aussie]

Like i've been saying, statisically he'll be dead by the end of his second term. He's 72 now, the average american lifespan is around 77.6
Life Expectancy In USA Increases To 77.6 Years; Deaths From Heart Disease, Cancer Decline, Report Finds

Why in this modern world with technology moving faster than ever would you elect the oldest president ever???

None of it makes sense??

[MarsBarKid]

Course it makes sense - every time they elect a young President - trouble looms - bay of pigs for one.
Or he gets his penis sucked under the desk in the Oval Office.

OMG they were both Democrats.


then we have Jimmy Carter and the act which started off the problems with Fannie and Freddie - Oh dear he was a Democrat too.

Better do as I do - vote for the best of the worst and that is usually a conservative party who can manage money
And then try to clean up the place of corruption via lobbying and donations for favours which happens here to the detriment of the public.

John McCain in his debate said he would clean it up and I think he has the experience to do it.

[ShadowFox]

Quote by: MarsBarKid Course it makes sense - every time they elect a young President - trouble looms - bay of pigs for one. Or he gets his penis sucked under the desk in the Oval Office. OMG they were both Democrats. then we have Jimmy Carter and the act which started off the problems with Fannie and Freddie - Oh dear he was a Democrat too. Better do as I do - vote for the best of the worst and that is usually a conservative party who can manage money And then try to clean up the place of corruption via lobbying and donations for favours which happens here to the detriment of the public. John McCain in his debate said he would clean it up and I think he has the experience to do it.

How about instead of just trying to make democrats look bad, you stay on topic and debate the topic at hand.

[Morality Games]

John McCain in his debate said he would clean it up and I think he has the experience to do it.

And the lobbyists to provide him with the money to do it -- and all so they can give him "good advice" too! Imagine . . . paying politicians just so you can give them advice.

[RickSp]

The 20% figure is based on an average healthy 72 year old male. From the article cited:

These figures do not include his increased risk of death from his multiple bouts of deadly melanoma skin cancer, a condition which could reoccur, and which recent research shows also increases the risks of developing other types of cancer. Naturally, the odds that he will suffer from some disabling condition while in office are much higher, with studies suggesting that the disability rate of persons 70-74 is almost 40%, and among those 75-79, the rate approaches 50%.

The truth is that we don't know the probability of John McCain surviving his first term because he has limited access to his medical records.

[Thanatos]

We can rebuild him. We have the technology. Better, stronger, faster.



Seriously, they've managed to keep Dick Cheney alive. McCain is probably already getting and will continue to get the absolute best medical care in the world. Besides it's a well known fact that the good die young and evil people live forever.

[Sappho]

I wish I had a 20% chance of dying... they be great odds.

Sadly however, my chances of death are 100%. It's a certainty... I just don't know when.

[ShadowFox]

Quote by: Sappho I wish I had a 20% chance of dying... they be great odds. Sadly however, my chances of death are 100%. It's a certainty... I just don't know when.

But this is the chance he will die within the next 4 years.

[LadiesMan217]

His odds are probably better then Barack Obama's chances of being assassinated by some racist bigot.

[Zakari]

He'll be like Mr Burns - 'eeexceelllent', whilst steepling his hands and pushing his troops into another country on his giant Risk game board.

[grandpa]

yep.

[tPA]

Sorry, minor quibble with the title:

There is actually a 100% chance that he will die, just like the rest of us. Unless he is an Immortal, in which case we'd better elect him. And he sure wouldn't need a VP, because there can be only one...

I'd also say that there is a 50% chance any one of us could die before his first term is over. I could get hit by a semi on my way home from work. 50% chance, no? Either I live today or I die. Granted, I know there are a lot more statistical intricacies to this issue, but I think this is a really ridiculous, fear based attack on the man. What side is fighting against the "politics of fear," again?

[megadeth425]

I'd also say that there is a 50% chance any one of us could die before his first term is over. I could get hit by a semi on my way home from work. 50% chance, no? Either I live today or I die. Granted, I know there are a lot more statistical intricacies to this issue, but I think this is a really ridiculous, fear based attack on the man. What side is fighting against the "politics of fear," again?

That's not even a logical fallacy, that's a screw-up on basic math. Just becuase there are two options does not mean they're equally likely. Those 'statistical intracacies' you're shrugging off are what decides the percentages. If we had a 50% chance of dying at any given time, the amount of people dying every day would be staggering. Percentages are based on the data and variables, not how many options there are.

Also, his death is very relevant if a sizable amount of people have concerns about his vice presidential pick. Between McCain's health and Obama's likelihood to be assassinated, the vice presidents have to be taken into account this year more than ever before, and if someone thinks 'foreign policy experience' means 'my state is near more countries than your state' could potentially become president, yes, we should observe and discuss what would lead her to become president. This isn't a fear-based attack, this is a logical concern about somebody's likelihood to perform their job and the consequences of their death. Not to mention the Obama campaign isn't calling McCain too old to run, so your statement about which side does what is irrelevant.

[tPA]

Quote by: megadeth425 That's not even a logical fallacy, that's a screw-up on basic math. Just becuase there are two options does not mean they're equally likely. Those 'statistical intracacies' you're shrugging off are what decides the percentages. If we had a 50% chance of dying at any given time, the amount of people dying every day would be staggering. Percentages are based on the data and variables, not how many options there are. Also, his death is very relevant if a sizable amount of people have concerns about his vice presidential pick. Between McCain's health and Obama's likelihood to be assassinated, the vice presidents have to be taken into account this year more than ever before, and if someone thinks 'foreign policy experience' means 'my state is near more countries than your state' could potentially become president, yes, we should observe and discuss what would lead her to become president. This isn't a fear-based attack, this is a logical concern about somebody's likelihood to perform their job and the consequences of their death. Not to mention the Obama campaign isn't calling McCain too old to run, so your statement about which side does what is irrelevant.

I understand. I wasn't "shrugging off" statistics, I was making a tongue-in-cheek reference.

These are the same tired attacks people made against Reagan. McCain is in good physical health, as his medical records attested. How's Obama doing? Oh, right, the media wasn't allowed access to his medical records, only a one-page summary of his health. He is/was a smoker--lung cancer in his future?

I think it's ridiculous. Biden is only 6 years younger than McCain, should we be afraid of him keeling over?

Also, Obama's supporters cite his "international heritage" and/or upbringing as his "foreign policy experience." Does that not disqualify him? I mean, come on, living in Indonesia as a child hardly counts as worldly experience.

[tPA]

Quote by: megadeth425 This isn't a fear-based attack, this is a logical concern about somebody's likelihood to perform their job and the consequences of their death. Not to mention the Obama campaign isn't calling McCain too old to run, so your statement about which side does what is irrelevant.

Obama keeps talking about the "politics of fear." His surrogates are trying to get us to be afraid that JOHN MCCAIN IS TOO OLD, HE'S UNHEALTHY, HE HAS A 1in5 CHANCE OF NOT MAKING IT THROUGH HIS FIRST TERM!!!!@$asdf$%^#~!%$!@

It's not logical, it's ridiculous. It's in the same category with me as PALIN WILL BE A BAD MOTHER IF SHE'S THE VP!!@%^#%$!% It's a non-issue.

Obama is really young, compared to other politicians who've aspired to the most powerful office in the world, should we hold that against him?

[megadeth425]

Living in Indonesia means you've actually left America. I'm not saying it's great, but at least he's gone overseas, which he has since done as a member of the Senate. And the statement wasn't so much questioning her foreign policy experience but more her intelligence and concept of what actually is experience.

I think you're confused about what McCain's done with his medical records. Yes, Obama released a one-page summary, but McCain picked and chose who read what, didn't allow photographs, and didn't release the whole thing either. Obama's got a summary, McCain's got fragments.

Also, you're speculating cancer. McCain, on the other hand, has had several bouts of cancer, which means it's reccurent, which means there's a cause for genuine concern about him having cancer, rather than having something that may lead to cancer.

Obama keeps talking about the "politics of fear." His surrogates are trying to get us to be afraid that JOHN MCCAIN IS TOO OLD, HE'S UNHEALTHY, HE HAS A 1in5 CHANCE OF NOT MAKING IT THROUGH HIS FIRST TERM!!!!@$asdf$%^#~!%$!@

His surrogates, but not him. Unless the campaign itself is making these statements, it's like holding when Janeane Garofalo jokingly said Republicans should be jailed against Obama's campaign as a whole.

It's not logical, it's ridiculous. It's in the same category with me as PALIN WILL BE A BAD MOTHER IF SHE'S THE VP!!@%^#%$!% It's a non-issue.

Not even close. McCain's health is a genuine concern; should we not care about whether a person who could potentially run the country will be able to run the country? You want someone healthy, who's able to physically and mentally do the job. Palin being a mother has nothing to do with politics or her being vice-president, don't compare a genuine concern with an objective attack. I'd like you to rationalise why you shouldn't be concern and voice a concern about a presidential candidate's health.

Obama is really young, compared to other politicians who've aspired to the most powerful office in the world, should we hold that against him?

It's not the age that's the problem, it's his health as a whole and the risks that come with age. I have nothing against him simply because he's old, I never said we shouldn't elect an old president, and even if I did, that in no way has any bearing on if there should be a minimum age for the presidency.