Ron Paul's chance of winning?

[butterbut]

Ihttp://www.nytimes.com/reuters/news/...=1&oref=slogin

It looks like he is in 5th place. This is my first election so I don't really know anything about primaries. What is the chance he gets the nomination?

[HelioPrime]

No chance. Barring some fortunate public fall from grace the clinton dynasty will be in power again shortly.

Fast forward 10 years. Clinton and Putin will still be rulers. I wonder who is the more democratic of the two.

[notworthabean]

yea, Ron paul has a good campaign going, but he won't win.

[Technosoul]

He has been in and out of politcs for a long time, had a few comebacks.

He is smart enough to know how to win. And we still have the most important time left (as they started way to early ).

He now has a lot more money to spend for the final "push" (via advertising ).

He is popular on the internet and at collages and universities, and polls might not have covered the voting block that would acturally go to the ballot boxes with a new surge of passion for politics.

I have always thought that he could have a 'surprise upset win" simular to what ( the then unknown) Bill Clinton did to win his first nomination. Did anyone ever know much about Bill Clinton before he first announced bid for his first nomination. Nope, not many people outside of his own state.

It is way too early to respect any of the polls or other kinds of crystal balls.

I do not know if he can beat out the Democrats... but none of the other standard type Republicans have a chance of winning the final showdown with the Demos, they got nothing new to offer anyone other then more bushism.

[butterbut]

Quote by: Technosoul I have always thought that he could have a 'surprise upset win" simular to what ( the then unknown) Bill Clinton did to win his first nomination. Did anyone ever know much about Bill Clinton before he first announced bid for his first nomination. Nope, not many people outside of his own state.

So its possible.

[Technosoul]

Quote by: butterbut So its possible.

If enough confidence is generated, it could be a sure thing.

People often fear "wasting a vote" so they pick one of the so-called top two canidates to weed out the worse of two evils. That is not wise thinking, if you got two bad canidates the voting for eather one still gets us a wrong person for President. Espeically if you have at least one fairly good canidate on the list. If you see no mostly good canidates just stay home and let the rest of the voters did their own graves.

I did that during the Kerry - Bush election - I stayed home.

Voting for Ron Paul would shake up Washington DC. That's what they need. So shake it and bake it, and put it on a plate.

[Osborn F Enready]

Ron Paul will be suprising people, concerning his chances to win.

I would encourage those who agree with him to support him in any way they can, as he is currently making huge gains both in media coverage as well as campaign funding.

I support Paul, and will be voting for him in '08.

[Amolibri]

"No chance. Barring some fortunate public fall from grace the clinton dynasty will be in power again shortly. " HUH???

We're talking primaries here...I think you're jumping ahead. Dr. Paul first has to face Giuliani, Romney, et al. His chances??? IF history serves...he might have a late surge (if you'll excuse the expression :))

I wouldn't count him out...or certainly not jump to Clinton w/o considering the PRIMARIES!!!

[The Decider]

Quote by: Amolibri "No chance. Barring some fortunate public fall from grace the clinton dynasty will be in power again shortly. " HUH??? We're talking primaries here...I think you're jumping ahead. Dr. Paul first has to face Giuliani, Romney, et al. His chances??? IF history serves...he might have a late surge (if you'll excuse the expression :)) I wouldn't count him out...or certainly not jump to Clinton w/o considering the PRIMARIES!!!

Is Ron Paul leading in any primary state? Or even threatening to lead? I would be interested in seeing that evidence.

[Technosoul]

Quote by: Amolibri "No chance. Barring some fortunate public fall from grace the clinton dynasty will be in power again shortly. " HUH??? We're talking primaries here...I think you're jumping ahead. Dr. Paul first has to face Giuliani, Romney, et al. His chances??? IF history serves...he might have a late surge (if you'll excuse the expression :)) I wouldn't count him out...or certainly not jump to Clinton w/o considering the PRIMARIES!!!

It is mandatory for the good of America that Ron Paul is nominated over Giuliani, Thompson, Romney, etc. That is why his supporters should overlook attacking Clinton or some other Democrat for the time being (because indeed, all Republicans would oppose the democrats). What his supporters must do currently is to show why R.P. is better then the other Republicans, and why the other Rep. canidates are not good for the Republican Party if they wish to re-gain the respect of Americans.

They should highlight the fact the Ron Paul is not another one of the Bush style cooker-cutter Republicans and that he can bring about the change from the last 6 years of Washinton DC "nonsense".

[Osborn F Enready]

Decider said: Is Ron Paul leading in any primary state? Or even threatening to lead? I would be interested in seeing that evidence.

The fact is, Ron Paul won the last Fox Poll during and after the debate on Fox News, Fox just pulled down the "results" once the evidence was clear who the public was supporting when it wasn't one of Fox's chosen "puppets".

Actually, the Republican Party is doing everything it can to stop Pauls success, because he isn't a "tow the line" major party puppet like Giulianni, Brownback, McCain, Romney, Thompson, etc.

Ron Paul Betting Odds Could be Impacted by New Voting Rules

Ron Paul's popularity bridges the gap between all groups. He is truly a bi-partisan politician. Republicans like him, Libertarians like him, Independents are supporting him as well as many Democrats who see his small government, anti-war stance as attractive. Ron Paul is the first person in decades to have so many diverse groups support him. It is easy to see why: he believes in freedom and liberty for all. That includes the liberty to not have to go to war and the liberty to keep your entire paycheck. Only days ago he introduced the Tax Free Tips Act because by taxing tips, the IRS punishes workers for "doing a superior job." People in this country are fed up with being lied to and stolen from. They want the war over with and they want it ended NOW. Ron Paul is fast becoming the only candidate in either party to pledge to end the war. People in general are sick of having no power to do anything and the majority of Americans believe that things are going to get worse for them in the coming years, not better. But Ron Paul offers hope to change all of that. He is truly the only man for the people. What is so amazing that so many Democrats, Independents and Libertarians are planning on voting for him. For those of you that fall into that class, the established Republicans do not want you to do that and are changing rules as we speak to try to shut you out at the voting window. Many states, in an effort to shut out Ron Paul are now closing their primaries. That means that only Republicans can vote in the Presidential primaries for a Republican candidate. Many states are doing this quickly and quietly and giving people very little time to learn about the new rules. For example, New Hampshire decided only a week ago that you will now have to change your party affiliation by October 12, 2007 or it will be too late to do so. New Hampshire also has a closed primary and only Republicans and possibly Independents will be allowed to vote for Ron Paul. .........(edited for post limits, please click link to read entire story) On top of all of this, many states are moving their primaries up earlier and earlier this year so that a come-from-behind candidate had better do his coming-from-behind in a sprint. Worse yet, if you call the official Secretary of State's office to find out the voting rules, you are likely to get faulty information. In my tiny sampling of seven calls, five of the states gave out incorrect information that if relied upon, would result in that voter not being allowed to vote for Ron Paul. The best place to get correct information is from your state's GOP. (But do not tell them who you are planning on voting for or they may make a mistake in the information. Beware of answers that begin with "I think..." that is almost always followed by a guess and often misinformation. Make them do the work and find out the real dates.) Here is one site that has some information, but please do not rely upon it as the rules may have changed by the time you read it. It will help you find links to places to change your registration. It is appalling that states are allowed to change their voting rules at the last minute so most people will not hear of the change. It is more appalling that when calling an official state office you are given incorrect information. It is most appalling that millions of Ron Paul voters may not get to vote for their man because they didn't know the rules were switched on them. So, for all of you Ron Paul supporters out there: Switch now. Hurry. Sign up to be a Republican if you aren't already, get that official voter registration card in hand so on primary election day no one can take away your right to vote! It doesn't matter if right now your state is an open primary state, or they claim to allow Independents to vote, they may close it tomorrow as California just did and they may give you only three weeks to make the change as New Hampshire did. Don't take the risk. Become Republican today. I know this is not fair. I know that the rules used to be different. I know, you may not want to be a Republican but still want to vote for Ron Paul. Please don't let your pride and their trickery get in the way of you voting for the man you want. And remember New Yorkers and folks from New Hampshire - You have less than two weeks left. HURRY! The deadline is October 12, October 12, October 12... make that your new mantra. Please tell all of your friends. For you Democrats out there who wanted the war to stop only to find that your party seems content on this war lasting another decade or so, Ron Paul voted against the war in the first place and would vote to stop it the minute he took office, in January of 2009. Isn't another 15 months enough time for this war to rage on and try to end with a "win." I know you may not want to switch parties. But think of it this way, if you do switch, and Ron Paul loses, then that will be another Republican who abandons the party come general election day, so you can have a little taste of revenge for them making you switch parties to vote for this man. How do you know that Ron Paul won't lie and keep this war going too? You can trust a man to behave in the future the way he has behaved in the past. Protect your right to vote. Don't let them steal the greatest man in history away from you before you have even learned about him. Check out the President RonPaul Portal | Links to Essential RP Sites - HQ - Grassroots - Republican Revolution | Ron Paul Revolution to find links to many ways to learn about Ron Paul. My favorites are the Ron Paul Library link and the You Tube videos. And they call this a democracy? Ha! Please send this article to all that you care about. Turn this into a freedom chain letter to spread truth across the country.

----

Jennifer Reynolds, Special Contributor to Gambling911.com

Originally published October 2, 2007 9:15 pm ET







Regardless of what you think of Paul, I think the actions by the parties to marginalize, discredit and bar him from success should SCREAM one thing........ VOTE FOR HIM SINCE HE OBVIOUSLY MEANS REAL CHANGE FOR THE BETTER, that's why they are trying to stop him.

Check your local state laws if you support Paul, and be sure to register as a Republican in time to support him in the Primary Elections..... in some cases, this deadline is only weeks away.

[Technosoul]

Quote by: The Decider Is Ron Paul leading in any primary state? Or even threatening to lead? I would be interested in seeing that evidence.

Would Fla. really want a New Yorker as President?, Paul is from Texas and they like those southern boys. Thompson already messed up when he was in Fla and said he would not take oil drilling off the table in the everglades. Paul would put the Everglades in the hands of the people of Fla. and out of the reach of the oil lobby in Washington DC.

Lot of time is still left before the nomination. All they gotta do is advertise and create the idea that Ron Paul is a strong and leading canidate "of the people" and then the polls would follow such advertising. First you plant the seeds, then later comes the harvest.

Do you buy a can of soup because it is really better then some brand not advertised, no you buy the one you see the most of TV. Same is so with canidates. ( as least as far as the sheepe go ). Sad but true... that is the "Mmmmm..good" politics.

[Osborn F Enready]

Read this article about how the media is "selecting" the front runners.

Ron Paul, Duncan Hunter, and Others Silenced at ABC News Debate -- The Media is Selecting the Front Runners


Also, a great article about "blowback" as Ron Paul has defined, and been vindicated by the facts.

Ron Paul is Right: Blowback is Undisputable Fact

[The Decider]

Quote by: Osborn F Enready The fact is, Ron Paul won the last Fox Poll during and after the debate on Fox News, Fox just pulled down the "results" once the evidence was clear who the public was supporting when it wasn't one of Fox's chosen "puppets".

A Fox News internet "instapoll" is not a statewide poll of eligable and likely Republican voters. Can you produce such a statewide poll that corroborates the Fox News internet tally? If so, you have an argument.

Alternatively, are you suggesting the statewide and national polling companies are rigging the results against Paul at the behest of the Republican Party? Please elaborate with some hard evidence.

Quote by: Osborn F Enready Actually, the Republican Party is doing everything it can to stop Pauls success, because he isn't a "tow the line" major party puppet like Giulianni, Brownback, McCain, Romney, Thompson, etc.

Your Gambling911.com website argued that "many states, in an effort to shut out Ron Paul are now closing their primaries...that means that only Republicans can vote in the Presidential primaries for a Republican candidate."

Well, shouldn't REPUBLICANS vote in REPUBLICAN primaries? Ron Paul is a REPUBLICAN and he will win or lose the REPUBLICAN nomination by persuading a majority of REPUBLICAN voters to choose him. I can't verify the Gambling911.com claim that some previously open Republican primary states "suddenly" changed the rules to lockout Independents and Democratic voters. But if Paul and his supporters think that independents and some Democrats should come to the rescue in the REPUBLICAN primaries, then they should brace themselves for major disappointment. Paul chose to run as a REPUBLICAN; that means he agreed to the party rules in all 50 states, including each state party's right to change those rules to exclude non-REPUBLICAN votes as it sees fit, when it sees fit.

Quote by: Osborn F Enready [b]Regardless of what you think of Paul, I think the actions by the parties to marginalize, discredit and bar him from success should SCREAM one thing........ VOTE FOR HIM SINCE HE OBVIOUSLY MEANS REAL CHANGE FOR THE BETTER, that's why they are trying to stop him.

Action by the "parties?" So the Democratic Party is also sabotaging Ron Paul in the REPUBLICAN primaries? Since when do REPUBLICAN voters listen to anything the Democratic Party says? Please explain further.

[Zee-Axis]

I know I'm the exception to the rule but...
I live in Fl and I'm a registered Dem. On Saturday, I went to the public library to re-register and change my party affiliation to Rep so I couldvote for RP in the primary.

He definitely doesn't mirror my views on every issue, only the ones that matter and to date is the only candidate in my 30 year voting history that I have donated to and volunteered my time to their campaign.

I sincerely hope that the citizens of our great country wake out of their apathy and start listening to What Dr. Paul has to say.

[Thanatos]

My personal dream is to see Ron Paul running on his own without the nomination. That way, he draws votes away from whoever wins the Republican nomination and Obama is guaranteed a victory.

[Technosoul]

I think Clinton will be nominated over Obama even with Oprah on his side.

But if Obama wins the nomination nod then I guess it's Ron Paul all the way for me in the final showdown.

But right now as a registered Republican I am putting my x for R.P. (and I hope his name is on the Ballot in California). I cannot vote Democratic in the primary.

Also, R.P. fans must remember that some Republicans who might vote for the top front runners on thier ticket might not bother to vote, as they know already that people are fed up with Bush and his elk and that they are wasting their time with the polls showing democrats way ahead of the game. So if Rudy, Romney, and Thompson loose out because their people do not show up on voting day then Ron Paul has a better chance of getting into a final debate as the canidate to debate the Democratic front winner of the nomination. Because R.P. people will show up to vote for sure.

[The Decider]

Quote by: Thanatos My personal dream is to see Ron Paul running on his own without the nomination. That way, he draws votes away from whoever wins the Republican nomination and Obama is guaranteed a victory.

I didn't realize that Obama leads the Democratic nomination race. Maybe Obama and Ron Paul are banking on the same "silent majority" that all major state and national polls have missed?

[Technosoul]

At first I was not in favor of Ron Paul because he would not be taking part in any kind of global agreements about the Global Warming problem.

But Thompson and others are far worse as they would continue the Bush agendas.

The states have the right not to go along with the lowered standards that Bush ruled for. In California we have much stonger standards then those of the Federal Government.

In California we are going to move ahead with replacing fosil fuels with bio-fuels. Setting an example for other states to follow. And the governors of all the states can also have big "pow wows" to arrange for a united effort to end polution together and I see that this will be forthcoming
in the near future, as more people get behind that issue to get something done. And even if Texas and a couple of states do not adopt stricter standards most of them would, I believe. R.P. would not interfer with states uniting on common goals or projects.

[Chancellor]

Quote by: HelioPrime No chance. Barring some fortunate public fall from grace the clinton dynasty will be in power again shortly. Fast forward 10 years. Clinton and Putin will still be rulers. I wonder who is the more democratic of the two.

Clinton getting the nomination in the Demoncrat Party has nothing whatsoever to do with the chances of Ron Paul getting the nomination in the Republican Party. We're talking about the primaries here, not the general election.