are the iraqis ready?

[bishop]

story

New allegations also surfaced about the professionalism of the Iraqi police, who are due to assume greater responsibility for security after the formal end of the occupation June 30. Shiites accused police in Fallujah of handing over Shiite truck drivers to insurgents who butchered them after they were unable to pay a ransom.

[tusaki]

Training doesn't stop at june 30th. "Occupation" or however you wish to call it will still be there. They will be trained until they are ready. The Netherlands, for example, will leave in 8 months. So it will take at least that much time to properly train them. Hopefully the coalition forces will have been able to remove most of the terrorists too, by that time.

[bishop]

it's my understanding that terrorists still enter iraq with relative ease.

my concern is more like this... the iraqi government seems to be viewed with severe skepticism amongst the iraqi public. they believe that they puppets. now, you have the iraqi police who are largely undisciplined and who sometimes seem to contribute to the instability.

what will happen if the public begins to link the police up with the iraqi government (which they increasingly distrust) and/or america?

the past week has seen some good news, no doubt. however, there are lots of rebel "politicians" out there who could win power via divide and conquer. i'm just speaking in hypotheticals, but if things don't improve fast, the cleavages that can form will produce a civil war of sorts.

[tusaki]

Civil war is a possibility, but not as long as there is a sufficient foreign force. That's why we have to stay. No matter if the iraqies see the current government as a 'puppet' government (Which it is). Also, a lot of the iraqi police force DOES want to make something out of their country. And i'm sure there are lots of iraqies who know that the current 'puppet' government is just temporary. I don't rule out civil war, but I hope there won't be any. After we leave and the iraqies rule their own, all bets are off. I wont be surprised if some other dictator somehow finds his way to power. It has been a pretty unstable region for the last 100 years.

The Iraqis are going to need a LOOOOONNNNNGGGG time to get their act together. Iraq is not a European country with a long history of self rule. The major factions residing within the county's borders will not come to terms with each other for, I predict, decades. There are generations long hatreds between these tribes. I agree that a foreign presensce will be necessary to keep these groups from coming to blows.
Also, running a Constitutional Republic will be a new experience for Iraq's leaders. We'll see how long it takes for them to change their governing ways.?
Even without a foreign military presence, Iraqis will have assistance from many business ventures. I am optimistic of Iraq's future, even though it will be a long and bumpy road.
As for terrorist; as long as they keep showing up causing trouble, coalition troops should oblige them with a few rounds from their rifle's, tanks, planes etc.

[bishop]

i have a hunch that in the coming months, we might begin to hear stories of atrocities committed by iraqis against iraqis. that will either happen, or the cops will continue to be largely irrelevant.

it seems we all agree that improvement will be a slow, bumpy process.. which returns to my original question/concern that the police will begin to be identified as laying in bed with the infidels - so to speak.

i think the chances for iraq's success improve the further we're removed from the picture. we are being scapegoated, and our civilians are being kidnapped and beheaded because of our continued presence there. increasingly, more iraqis have been saying that they're prefer us to leave. if you connect the various surveys, the trend is crystal clear. i can only imagine what the next one will tell (the post-abu ghraib survey).

[Scribbler1]

Originally posted by bishop, i have a hunch that in the coming months, we might begin to hear stories of atrocities committed by iraqis against iraqis. that will either happen, or the cops will continue to be largely irrelevant.

It already happened, last week. I read where there were some Iraqi police trying to arrest some men for robbery, and Al Sadr's "militia" shot the police full of holes. No Americans were shot, or even THERE, according to the report.

I think we often forget that some other areas of the world do not act or think like us, and they never will. They have been killing each other for different petty little reasons for hundreds of years regardless of any advancement in civilization in other parts of the world, and imposition of western-style democracy is not likely to alter that mindset. Why do you think there are all these different groups that exist in the Middle East even to this day? They HATE each other, and nobody saying "look boys, I got you a nice, shiny new democracy" is going to have much impact on these people. IMO, of course.

[bishop]

damn.. i definitely didn't hear that story.. after the article i found today and what you just said, and the fact that june 30 is about 2 weeks away - i'm going to be particularly interested in stories about iraqi policework.

i agree with what you said about arabs hating each other.. i do think that iraq is a bit different though. saddam has played divide and conquer for some 30 years there. that's a big reason imo.


i also hear that iraqi police aren't being paid all that much, that their families are being targeted and killed, etc.. dunno how much of that is true or not, but it is believable.

the quicker we can leave that place the better.

[Scribbler1]

Originally posted by bishop, i agree with what you said about arabs hating each other.. i do think that iraq is a bit different though. saddam has played divide and conquer for some 30 years there. that's a big reason imo.

Good point. That brings up another point about Iraq I forgot. Even with Saddam's benevolent and kindly governance, Iraq had been called the most westernized of all the Arab countries. Apprently because Saddam was actually a big fan of the west and patterned Baghdad after our style of big city. Maybe that memory will affect how they turn out under self rule. I rather doubt it but you never know.

No source on the westernized Iraq point. Just something I remember I heard on the news back around Desert Storm.

[sixmillman]

The following is a fictional memo written to Osama concerning the US presence in Iraq. It is from the Belmont Club.

The fundamental problem preventing a revival of the strategy of consolidating our strength within the Islamic world is the American occupation of Iraq. It presents a dual threat. First, it serves as an object lesson to those Arab states who would shelter us. Do this and you share Saddam's fate. But second, and most important, it has given the United States possession of a great Arab state, perhaps the greatest of them all. It is not the money they care for. You know the statistics. The gross national product of all the Arab states combined do not amount to that of a single medium-sized European country. What they covet is the human resource that Iraq provides. Its Mukhabarat, its limitless pool of Arab-speaking potential traitors, its secret files whose contents not even you, O Osama, may know. What they covet is its central physical location which makes it possible to project secret teams all over the Arab world. But as you know, our successes in Iraq have been entirely inflated by the press. Objectively speaking, we have endured an unbroken string of defeats. We could not get the UN to stop the American attack; we persuaded Turkey to withhold cooperation, but it did not matter. The country fell to the invader and although we have called every Jihadi at our disposal into the theater, with Syrian and Iranian help, we have not been able to delay the American timetable of handover by June 30 so much as a single day. But worse, it has forced us into coalition warfare. I know how sick you are, as I am, of the Persian apostate mullahs and the greedy Syrians. The Americans can kick their ally France like a dog, but we alas, must endure the humiliations of dealing with the Assads and the Ayatollahs with a smile. It must now be accepted, than even if John Kerry wins, that we will not be able to seize a state like Pakistan, Saudi Arabia or even Afghanistan again within a five year horizon. The return to the crossroads is barred, at least for the foreseeable future. It is sad, but a fact. That leaves us with this tantalizing question. Having gone so far on September 11, can we not go further? Will one more push topple the rock? The answer is yes, but only if the push is sufficient and it leaves the Left which is the spirit of suicide, in control. This latter condition is essential. The fundamental fact is that the triumph of the Jihad must be momentarily preceded by the ascendance of the Left. Only the Left will pick up the gun, put the barrel to the temple of the Western mind and pull the trigger without hesitation. But their ascendance will only be momentary, and I for one delight in imagining how we will kick them as they squeal about their rights and their sexual entitlements once there is no one left to protect them.

[Sonart]

I don't know what they're drinking over at the Belmont Club, six, but it's laced with something psychodelic.

Our occupation of Iraq is not a threat to al-Qaeda, it's an absolute BONANZA for al-Qaeda. It's taken massive resources away from securing and consolidating Afghanistan and pursuing al-Qaeda forces, it has enraged the Muslim world and has motivated more and more crazies to join the ranks of al-Queda and it has alienated our allies who are even now in the process of turning out their governments who supported us. Perhaps you missed the latest news where Colin Powell announced that the Administration estimates that our war had reduced terrorism were exactly wrong, that terrorism has increased since we invaded Iraq.

But more than anything, Iraq has given al-Qaeda an arena to fight Americans directly. They don't have to go to the United States, they can hurt us more in Iraq by making it impossible for us to win there. And they don't even have to attack Americans directly - Iraqi insurgents are doing just fine at that. No, al-Qaeda goes after infrastructure, the presumptive Iraqi government, Iraqi police and security forces, Iraqi Shiites, laying the groundwork for chaos and civil war, making it impossible for us to leave and impossible for us to win.

They learned how to do this by defeating the Soviets in Afghanistan and now they have the opportunity, with the heart of America's armed forces pinned down smack in the friggin' center of Arab Muslim central, to apply those lessons on us.

All because morons like the Belmont Club think the U.S. is justified in doing any dam thing we want because of 9/11.

[LogicaLunatic]

At least the Iraqi's thing they're ready. Now Poll!

http://www.contracostatimes.com/mld/cctime.../8935514.htm?1c

[bishop]

could you paste the important bits? i don't want to register.

[Sonart]

Try here, Bishop.

--"WASHINGTON – A poll of Iraqis commissioned by the U.S.-governing authority has provided the Bush administration with a stark picture of anti-American sentiment: More than half of Iraqis believe they would be safer if U.S. troops simply left."--

[Compugasm]

Why is everyone blindly following these polls?

"..Crucial details on the methodology of the coalition's polling were not provided, including how samples were drawn."

[bishop]

thanks LL/Sonart...

i'm convinced that we've become part of the problem, rather than the solution. the terrorists/insurgents are making sure that we experience a shit ton of pain (and financial loss) before we withdraw. they've ensured that we won't be able to use oil to pay for the reconstruction. they're picking off iraqi leaders one by one. etc...

and for months now, the trend has clearly showed a cooling of iraqi sentiment towards our presence there.

*thank you bush, for sinking our country into the quicksand that is iraq*

[Sonart]

Why is everyone blindly following these polls?

Because it's probably more informative than relying on GI's letters to hometown newspapers telling how much the little Iraqi children just LOVE them.

[LogicaLunatic]

Originally posted by Compugasm, Why is everyone blindly following these polls? "..Crucial details on the methodology of the coalition's polling were not provided, including how samples were drawn."

Yeah, but it also included this...

"The coalition's Iraq polling of 1,093 adults selected randomly in six different cities -- Baghdad, Basra, Mosul, Diwaniyah, Hillah and Baqouba -- was taken May 14-23 and had a margin of potential sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points."

[Compugasm]

LL, yep. Saw that, and it's useless without methodology and sample data.

[bishop]

the poll was conducted by the cpa.. if they had any bias, it would've been to produce more favorable responses.