Illegal Immigration: a fact-based cost/benefit analysis

[Zeebadee]

Quote by: fushigi On the economic side, services for illegal immigrants (including prisons) cost taxpayers $10.0bn more than illegal immigrants pay in taxes. However, their presence provides a 0.12% net increase for the US economy - $15.8bn in 2006. That's nearly a $6bn net benefit.

I believe your figure of $10 billion is for the federal government. ("A report that found that illegal immigrants in the United States cost the federal government more than $10 billion a year" - Illegal Immigrants' Cost to Government Studied (washingtonpost.com)) In addition, illegal immigration is costing California an additional $10.5 billion ("Illegal immigration costs the taxpayers of California — which has the highest number of illegal aliens nationwide — $10.5 billion a year for education, health care and incarceration, according to a study released yesterday" - http://washingtontimes.com/national/...115-6766r.htm).

And none of those figures take into account what it's costing taxpayers to provide unemployment and welfare payments to the U.S. workers that are being displaced by the illegals. In addition, the study you quoted is for a period of 300 years, hardly an accurate estimate.

Take a drive through some of the bedroom communities around the SF bay area. You can't find a parking place on many of the suburban streets at night. Why? Simple, there are 3 or 4 families living in a lot of the houses, garages have been converted into bedrooms, as have living rooms. Individual families simply aren't paid enough to buy their own houses. Too many cars, no garages. This is raising our standard of living? This is good for us?

I'm not going to bother to make any serious attempt to present opposition posts to illegal immigration, it's going to continue until the economic incentive to come here and work has been neutralized. Does anyone really think that this is going to happen because economic conditions and job opportunities in Mexico are going to catch up to ours?? We're already well on the way to the same level of graft and corruption that's endemic in Mexico. Only when this country descends into the same cesspool they are running north from will they stop coming.

The average citizen that's picking up the tab for this unrestricted immigration has no power to stop it. Money is what puts politicians in office, and that money is coming from those that directly benefit from the illegals.

[fushigi]

("Illegal immigration costs the taxpayers of California — which has the highest number of illegal aliens nationwide — $10.5 billion a year for education, health care and incarceration, according to a study released yesterday" -

$10bn for California... the total cost is 29bn... are 30% of illegals in California? I'd be surprised if they weren't.

$10bn/0.30 = $30bn. Seems about right to me.

[rmnunez]

Durex conducted a sexual wellbeing survey of 26 thousand people in 26 countries to find:

Nigeria is the most (sexually) satisfied nation, with 67% of respondents claiming to be fully satisfied, closely followed by Mexico with 63%, India at 61% and Poland with 54%. Durex Condoms Contraceptives

The note is from a Canadian source so they compare people from that country, but I'd expect the data from united statians must be similar. Mexicans have fewer problems with erections, sex more often, and it last longer for them, than for united statians. In my previous source it noted that Mexican "women" aged 12 to 19 were more fertile (likely to become pregnant) too.

[Zeebadee]

Quote by: rmnunez Durex conducted a sexual wellbeing survey of 26 thousand people in 26 countries to find: The note is from a Canadian source so they compare people from that country, but I'd expect the data from united statians must be similar. Mexicans have fewer problems with erections, sex more often, and it last longer for them, than for united statians. In my previous source it noted that Mexican "women" aged 12 to 19 were more fertile (likely to become pregnant) too.

No doubt they have more sex in Mexico, after all, they're more used to getting screwed by their government. (As if this had anything at all to do with the topic of the thread)

[rmnunez]

It has a lot to do with the matter at hand, particularly for the demographic impact in the US. One of the issues is whether the US economy can grow and remain vibrant without immigrants. CEMEX commissioned a study which forecast 77 million united statians would reach retirement and leave work between 2000 and 2010, unless nearly 8 million united statians were born each year they couldn't cover the vacancies, forget about any jobs from a growing economy. But there are people being born in the US, problem is they are usually Mexicans.

[fushigi]

Can you post the source pls?

I'd like to check it out. If it's true, sounds like we need more immigration whether it's legal or not.

[rmnunez]

I'll see if I can find a link, I translated the study for a developer refering to it to promote investment in retirement communities and got stuck when I came across the term "active adults" (they forecasted growing demand for residential communities for US retirees). This CEMEX-commissioned study was extensively debated and is cited (CEMEX is a tremendously successful Mexican cement multinational).

[rmnunez]

Oakland will refuse to cooperate with federal thugs pursuing suspected undocumenteds:

"Immigration is the Civil Rights issue of our time," Dellums said. "In order to realize the Model City vision, we must treat everyone fairly and humanely. It is not appropriate policy to intimidate and harm people that are already here. There are millions of immigrants in this country and we must approach this issue with enlightened and compassionate immigration policy." Oakland resolutions condemn federal immigration raids

[rmnunez]

Mexico's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in purchasing power parity (PPP) was estimated at $1.134 trillion in 2006, and $741.5 billion in nominal exchange rates. As such, its standard of living, as measured in GDP in PPP per capita was of $10,600. The World Bank reported that the country's Gross National Income and income per capita in nominal market exchange rates were the highest in Latin America, at $753.394 billion, and $7,310 respectively, and as such, Mexico is now firmly established as an upper middle-income country. After the slowdown of 2001 the country has recovered and has grown 4.2, 3.0 and 4.8 percent in 2004, 2005 and 2006, even though it is considered to be well below Mexico's potential growth.

Unemployment in Mexico:
<ul>2001: 2.76%
<li>2002: 2.98%
<li>2003: 3.41%
<li>2004: 3.92%
<li>2005: 3.58%
<li>2006: 3.6%
<li>2007: 4.01%
</ul>
There are lots of things the Mexican government needs to do to improve the economy: Tax collections need to be substantially improved as a huge irregular “off the books” economy thrives without any sort of regulation; major infrastructural investment, especially in the energy sector is needed, but there are constraints which impede foreign participation; the huge bureaucracy built up over 70 years of single-party institutional control needs to be reduced and processes streamlined, and naturally this is resisted. But overall the economy is doing well and the government tackling these problems. There is an active effort to erradicate corruption and without the guaranteed immunity for functionaries due to political connections (as it was before) this is happening. There have been substantial improvements in simplifying procedures to open a business and all sorts of regulatory agencies are now much more closely monitored.

[tmay563]

I dont know about the stats for the entire country but in California a third of those in jail are illegal aliens. Illegal Immigration is not helping, no matter how you try and spin it. Crime rates go up, drug trafficking etc. They come here with no health insurance and go to the ER whenever they get sick and the American taxpayer picks up the tab. They sponge off of the welfare system which is giving out enough money as it is. The majority of the them are unskilled workers. The American taxpayer has to pay for their bilingual education. We are a nation of citizens, not of businesses, and the businesses are the ones who profit from the exploitation of the illegal immigrants who come here, not the American citizens. I for one do not advocate the exploitation of a race of people, do you? And that is not an appeal to emotion, it is a fact that they are being exploited. And I would to see how many millions of dollars the illegal immigrants are sending back to their families in Mexico.

[rmnunez]

I wouldn't be so sure about that tmay, it seems patients admitted in united statian hospitals are identified, provide addresses and other data. Undocumenteds would have a hard time with this since their presence in the US is unlawful and they'd try and keep it secret. There are lots of stories from former immigrant workers who regained consciousness after some accident on the job to find themselves chained to their hospital cots pending deportation. The impression I get is that the US deports them to save money on worker's compensation.

[fushigi]

tmay: welcome to Volconvo!

You raise valid concerns, but did you check out the original post? Even accounting for the added cost in welfare, health care, law enforcement, penal system Americans pay for illegal immigrants, their presence in the US yields a net financial benefit of $10bn. Thus, the economic aspect of your argument, while compelling, does not hold up to financial analysis.

As for this statement

Illegal Immigration is not helping, no matter how you try and spin it. Crime rates go up, drug trafficking etc.

can you prove this? Illegals ARE overly represented in our prison systems (19% of prisoners are illegals, while they only make up 4% of the total US population). But that doesn't mean that they increase crime rates. In fact, crime has decreased by 19% in the US since 1995, while illegal immigration rates have increased by 20-30% over the same period.

The data simply doesn't support the view that more illegals = more crime.

fushigi

[Zeebadee]

Quote by: fushigi You raise valid concerns, but did you check out the original post?

Did you read anything BUT the original post? Your link concerns FEDERAL costs, as the title clearly states. There are very high state costs associated with illegal immigration that you choose to ignore.

[fushigi]

How much?

[Zeebadee]

Quote by: fushigi How much?

"llegal immigration costs the taxpayers of California — which has the highest number of illegal aliens nationwide — $10.5 billion a year for education, health care and incarceration, according to a study released yesterday. "

I had posted this earlier, but that link seems to be bad now. Here it is:

Illegal aliens cost California billions - The Washington Times: Nation/Politics - December 07, 2004

[fushigi]

You're right, Zee--I hadn't considered that. Furthermore, consider this:

Mr. Stein noted that state and local taxes paid by the unauthorized immigrant population go toward offsetting these costs, but do not match expenses. The total of such payments was estimated in the report to be about $1.6 billion per year.

So the net loss for taxpayers is about US $9bn.

There is this to consider, however:

"Beyond taxes, these workers' production and spending contribute to California's economy, especially the agricultural sector," he said, adding that both legal and illegal aliens are the "backbone" of the state's $28 billion-a-year agricultural industry.

As for using their agricultural production as an example of how they "contribute" to the economy, this WEAKENS the argument for illegal immigration, as the US's agricultural industry only stays afloat through massive government subsidies.

However, what about workers' spending? Does it make up for the $9bn in state taxpayer losses?

More on that later.

[fushigi]

Well, here's a report from North Carolina, for one:

North Carolina's rapidly growing Hispanic population contributes more than $9 billion to the state's economy through its purchases, taxes and labor, while costing the state budget a net $102 per Hispanic resident in health care, education and correctional services, according to a new study by researchers at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

Considering North Carolina's illegal population is around 500,000, that would mean $50m in services for $9bn in economic benefit.

[fushigi]

OK back to California. Let's just talk Mexico first. Mexicans send $15bn in wages to Mexico. How much of their wages are spent in California?

Well, considering that Latin Americans immigrants in the US earn $500bn a year, and $45bn (9%) of that is sent home. Now, this figure of Latin American immigrants includes citizens, many of whom probably don't send ANY money overseas (as they've already brought their family to live with them in the US). So let's be generous and say illegals send a 5x greater portion of their wages--45%--home in comparison with all Latin Americans in the US. That would mean illegals in California are NOT sending $15bn/45% = $33bn home. That money's staying in the economy, and it's still more than 4x the total state losses from services provided for illegals.

And that's just Mexicans.

[Century 25]

tmay563 states:

Illegal Immigration is not helping, no matter how you try and spin it. Crime rates go up, drug trafficking etc. They come here with no health insurance and go to the ER whenever they get sick and the American taxpayer picks up the tab. They sponge off of the welfare system which is giving out enough money as it is. The majority of the them are unskilled workers. The American taxpayer has to pay for their bilingual education. We are a nation of citizens, not of businesses, and the businesses are the ones who profit from the exploitation of the illegal immigrants who come here, not the American citizens

.

..yes.. very well said.. illegal aliens are here for one reason: Cheap labor... and the costs due to business laissez-faire attitude.. are deferred to.. yup.. all of us citizens...

Now that so many of our citizens are aware of the dirt being done to them.. it is.. too late.. for there is no avenue open to us that could reverse the mortal damage.. and the best of "treatments" would only slow our decline into a 2nd class country..

[Zeebadee]

Quote by: fushigi Well, here's a report from North Carolina, for one:Considering North Carolina's illegal population is around 500,000, that would mean $50m in services for $9bn in economic benefit.

I think you're incorrectly interpreting the study you quote. The cost to the state may be $102 per Hispanic resident, and the overall "benefit" of $9 billion are two entirely different things. The $9 billion isn't paid back to the state, it's the total product of the immigrants labor. That goes for their living costs, food, gas, etc. The $102 is the NET cost to the state after all the rest is figured in. In addition, if all the illegals were to disappear, other people would step in and perform those jobs, so that $9 billion wouldn't be lost. In fact, if wages rose because of the loss of all that cheap labor, the $9 billion might even go up.

This study appears to be deliberately stacking the deck by making phony comparisons. For example, it costs the state $7138 per pupil for education. For that alone to average $102 per person would mean that only about 1 person in 70 would be a student.

Something is wrong with this "report".