Speculation - why is Bush really going to attack Iran?

[Technosoul]

The reasons for the war in Afganistan is self-evident.

However the war on Iraq was for oil and the reasons Bush used to justify his attack were lies.

Now Bush is saying that Iran has a secret nuclear program (just like he said about Iraq). Iran claims otherwise and with the aid of Russian contracts only wants a nuclear energy plant.

Can we trust Bush or are we going to be "fooled twice"?

If Bush is telling another big lie, as before, what are the real reasons he and his co-hearts want to attack Iran?

Anyone care to speculate?

Shell oil just signed a big contract with Iran for gas resources, is that a "clue"?

[ruksak]

The whole world sees Iran as a nuclear threat. Even France. Isn't that a clue?

[HelioPrime]

The whole world say USSR was a nuclear threat. Our responce was to build more and more nukes of our own.

We don't need to invade Iran, not counting nukes we have the power to destroy them. Good enough deterent.

Like Alan Greenspan mentions in his book. War is about oil. We are better off with a US friendly government in control. That and that alone would be the reason Bush would invade Iran.

Also: France has changed their Iran stance at least verbally :
French diplomat softens tone on Iran - Yahoo! News

[Milton Bradley]

Quote by: HelioPrime The whole world say USSR was a nuclear threat.

We have to ask ourselves, did the Soviets invade all the other countries out that did not engage in nuclear proliferation, or the armes race? They did not.


In fact as time goes by, and more of the real facts come out, it looks more, and more like they were just opposing the real threat to world peace, the United States.


Who esle has such an impressive list of conquered governments, and installed puppet dictators?

[HelioPrime]

Quote by: Milton Bradley Who esle has such an impressive list of conquered governments, and installed puppet dictators?

What would you call the governments of eastern Europe after WWII? Were they freely elected governments?

Priot to the outbreak of war, Hitler used threatning influence and military force to aquire lands for Germany while Europe stood by and tried to appease.

If it had not been for a united front on allied nations opposing Soviet expansion, then puppet communist regimes would have spread. Without a huge military to oppose them, the Soviets might not have bankrupted themselves and would still be a threat today.

[Thanatos]

1. Hydrocarbons and hydrocarbon pipelines.
2. Killing sand niggers.

Any questions?

[Praxius]

Nice.... you know you could have re-worded that a bit better without actually becoming a racist Pr*ck.

But my speculation is to cause WWIII.... I've explained this many times already. The plans, the proceedures, the tactics, locations, what starts where, who's on what side.....

*shrugs* oh well.... if you're interested, you can go look it up.

[Suburbanite]

when do we go to war with iran?

[Milton Bradley]

Quote by: HelioPrime What would you call the governments of eastern Europe after WWII? Were they freely elected governments?

Absoltely not.


My point remains that our own governments list of similar actions dwarfs theirs by a considerable amount.

[Gods_Mercenary]

If that is his aim, then it's because he's delusional, a full scale invasion of Iran is bound to be worse than Iraq, Saddam couldn't even defeat them militarily do it with a good deal of our resources (though, granted, a good deal of his own blunders made sure of it) and far more cruelty than we're likely to use.

I can't see it becoming anywhere near necessary in our world (you know, the one we live in), as they're not near making a nuke, it may not be their aim, and a good cruise missile or spec-ops team can take out a facility as well as a tank batallion.

[HelioPrime]

Quote by: Gods_Mercenary I can't see it becoming anywhere near necessary in our world (you know, the one we live in), as they're not near making a nuke, it may not be their aim, and a good cruise missile or spec-ops team can take out a facility as well as a tank batallion.

Agreed. A nuke is one thing, but the ability to launch at US soil is far outside their range. Europe would be the most likely targets Iran could reach so untill they worry why should we worry.

[Thanatos]

Quote by: Praxius Nice.... you know you could have re-worded that a bit better without actually becoming a racist Pr*ck. But my speculation is to cause WWIII.... I've explained this many times already. The plans, the proceedures, the tactics, locations, what starts where, who's on what side..... *shrugs* oh well.... if you're interested, you can go look it up.

I caution that its often impossible to tell the difference between the actions of someone who is truly utterly evil and one who is truly utterly stupid, but I'll play with the idea.

The standard procedure is to claim a warship or a border patrol was fired upon and then immediately retaliate to an attack that never actually happened. Worked in Vietnam. Bush could have done this already...

...so either he's being indecisive or he's trying to fake out the Iranians into striking first. I have been watching this topic for quite some time, and there has been a long series of "leaks" about an imminent attack on Iran that turned out to be bogus. Bush's lack of testicles combined with the fact that the Iranians have proven to be smarter than he is may have saved the world.

Or the bogus leaks were intended so that when the actual war comes any real leak will be lost in the storm. As I said, stupidity is often indistinguishable from evil.

[Thanatos]

Quote by: HelioPrime Agreed. A nuke is one thing, but the ability to launch at US soil is far outside their range. Europe would be the most likely targets Iran could reach so untill they worry why should we worry.

Don't say that. I've given this some thought and there are quite a few ways they could do serious damage already. They have the capability to produce radioactive compounds even if they can't make nukes at the moment...

Some ideas include:

-Dirty suitcase bombs set off in major cities and military bases. If you can get drugs into the country in a duffel bag, you can get cobalt-60 in too.

-Short-range missiles fired from a warship disguised as a cargo vessel and flying a Chinese flag.

-Cargo ship flying a Chinese flag that instead of carrying missiles just goes right into the docks in New York and releases a plume of radioactive dust.

Why Chinese? Max confusion and might start another war. Why radiation weapons? They're what they have and they may not kill many people but the panic and disruption of having to evacuate a bunch of major cities at once will be devastating. At least, this is how I'd go about it...

[Technosoul]

Quote by: Suburbanite when do we go to war with iran?

No date set yet.

Right now it is mostly grandstanding talk.

But, if Bush is going to do it then he must do so before January of 2008.

"we" are not going to war because who is asking us the voters for permission? Nobody.

Just call it Bush's "madatory insurance plan".

[HelioPrime]

Quote by: Thanatos -Short-range missiles fired from a warship disguised as a cargo vessel and flying a Chinese flag. -Cargo ship flying a Chinese flag that instead of carrying missiles just goes right into the docks in New York and releases a plume of radioactive dust. Why Chinese? Max confusion and might start another war. Why radiation weapons? They're what they have and they may not kill many people but the panic and disruption of having to evacuate a bunch of major cities at once will be devastating. At least, this is how I'd go about it...

Since 9/11 security has stepped up across the globe including on the sea. You can't just "flag" a ship as chinese, you would have to first register it from China, and name it. You can bet your tax dollars big brother would red flag any ship registered that listed Iran as a port of call. Adding NYC or venturing into NY without it listed as a port would result in a visit courtesy of the US navy.

Iran is also a ways away from developing their own combat warships, all they could do is modify an existing cargo vessel which would have to be done outside Iran waters. Again big brother has eyes watching Iran.

[Praxius]

How come I have yet another prediction that may come true?

Some wonder about Bush, if he's stupid or really smart.... well he's unfortunatly both.

He smart because he's got the resources he needs to make what he wants to happen, happen. He's smart that he has the opportunity to work and deal his way to his goals behind closed doors, and to keep everything as National Security. He's got his Patriot Act, which passed with basically nobody reading it, he's got pretty much total control over the US to the point he only needs thus far.

He's Stupid, because he has no Pulic relations skills, and when he tries to BS his way through interviews and speaches, it's so transparently flawed, he looks like a moron.

Either way, the most dangerous side is the smart side on this twit.

All he has to do before his power runs out, is to stage a serious attack in Iraq or on the homeland again, find someway to pin it on Iran, then establish his new law where he can issue himself as the dictator he wants, To ensure the safety, security and liberty of the US as he'll put it.... and then launch more troops.

And if the majority of the population in the US opposes such an attempt, then he'll easily make it a decision you have no choice in, where he will make the country in a state of actual constant threat of warfare.

He doesn't have to have perfect plans, he just needs to screw everything up as much as possible before he leaves and his plan already has been acomplished. He's just one more guy in the bigger picture to get things rolling.

[Thanatos]

Quote by: HelioPrime Since 9/11 security has stepped up across the globe including on the sea. You can't just "flag" a ship as chinese, you would have to first register it from China, and name it. You can bet your tax dollars big brother would red flag any ship registered that listed Iran as a port of call. Adding NYC or venturing into NY without it listed as a port would result in a visit courtesy of the US navy. Iran is also a ways away from developing their own combat warships, all they could do is modify an existing cargo vessel which would have to be done outside Iran waters. Again big brother has eyes watching Iran.

Bribing the right officials might allow you to get a ship with a legitimate foreign registry and for a slightly bigger bribe legitimate business in an American harbor. Better yet you put a few shipping crates full on a ship with a crew that has no idea its not just a whole bunch of heavy machinery. You see, they do the radiation screening after a ship is docked....

Basically, if they want to cause us harm badly enough they can.

[Gods_Mercenary]

Quote by: Thanatos Don't say that. I've given this some thought and there are quite a few ways they could do serious damage already. They have the capability to produce radioactive compounds even if they can't make nukes at the moment... Some ideas include: -Dirty suitcase bombs set off in major cities and military bases. If you can get drugs into the country in a duffel bag, you can get cobalt-60 in too. -Short-range missiles fired from a warship disguised as a cargo vessel and flying a Chinese flag. -Cargo ship flying a Chinese flag that instead of carrying missiles just goes right into the docks in New York and releases a plume of radioactive dust. Why Chinese? Max confusion and might start another war. Why radiation weapons? They're what they have and they may not kill many people but the panic and disruption of having to evacuate a bunch of major cities at once will be devastating. At least, this is how I'd go about it...

Yah, I'm sure no one would realize the chinese are not going to antagonize the U.S. in such a way and not try to seal the deal, and then if they do figure it out, as they're likely to, you've committed an act of war against both the U.S, and the Chinese, something you're not likely to get out of with a significant peice of your population intact.

[phoenix_fire]

The idea that Iran may be trying to develop nuclear weapons is not new. We've known about them enriching Uranium for a while. Unfortunately, since the U.S. has so significantly weakened much of the competition in the area, Iran is poised to be a serious force in the region. Considering the level and concentration of radicalism there, it is no small wonder that they make some people very, very nervous.

[Milton Bradley]

Quote by: phoenix_fire The idea that Iran may be trying to develop nuclear weapons is not new. We've known about them enriching Uranium for a while. Unfortunately, since the U.S. has so significantly weakened much of the competition in the area, Iran is poised to be a serious force in the region. Considering the level and concentration of radicalism there, it is no small wonder that they make some people very, very nervous.

This is not aimed directly at you Phoenix, but merely a launchpad for my question.


Let us assume that Iran does have nuclear ambitions beyond nuclear energy.


Why is the doctrine of mutually Assured Destruction not a working philosophy when "those people" get nuclear weapons?


Are they any more likely to use those weapons than the people who wrote the Mutually Assured Destruction Doctrine?