Housing Slowdown May Claim 800,000 Jobs

[Sean]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051207/...BhBHNlYwM5NjQ-

A sustained decline will hit the U.S. housing market next year, costing the nation as many as 800,000 jobs, according to a new economic report released Wednesday. The slowdown is likely to last several years, with as many as 500,000 construction jobs and 300,000 financial sector positions lost, the quarterly Anderson Forecast predicted. "We expect housing to start slowing the economy this quarter or the next," said Edward Leamer, director of the study done at the University of California, Los Angeles. "Some jobs in manufacturing might well disappear as a result of weakness in housing, but this may be offset by jobs brought home or not lost to foreign competition," he wrote. The forecast said eight of the last 10 economic recessions were started by housing market slowdowns. Though the coming cooldown will cause a drag on the nation's economy, it will fall short of triggering a recession, the forecast said. The report cited several signs that the decline could be under way: • New construction of housing in October was down 5.6 percent from the previous month, with new construction of single-family housing accounting for a 3.7 percent dip.

[Keith Hamburger]

Quote by: Sean http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051207/...BhBHNlYwM5NjQ-

The forecast said eight of the last 10 economic recessions were started by housing market slowdowns. Though the coming cooldown will cause a drag on the nation's economy, it will fall short of triggering a recession, the forecast said.

Considering most people today are mortgaged to the hilt and living off their equity, a reduction in building, if accompanied by a reduction in housing prices, will cause an enormous drop in the economy.

I don't see how any slowdown in the housing market can avoid recession.

Keith

[Jack]

Wow, three hours and so far no comment from the "the economy is in great shape, everything's under control...up is down, black is white" crowd. They must all be at work.

[RickSp]

The Norwegians have an expression - "the trees do not grow to the sky." At least in the North East it is hard to believe that we are not in a speculative bubble. I think it is likely to slowly deflate rather than pop, but only time will tell.

I find it interesting that of the predicted 800,000 job losses, 300,000 are predicted to be in the financial sector. That is a lot of mortgage brokers.

[Osborn F Enready]

And so shall come the next recession, by design.

Add to this loss metioned above,

The jobs lost by ALL American Auto companies
The jobs lost by all service industry jobs since 9-11
The jobs lost by Airlines, and airline supprt personnel
The jobs lost to Box Stores closing down small business independents
The jobs lost to India and China by major corporations such as Owens Corning, etc.
The jobs lost in most high paying labor positions that are NOT trade related

Put on top of that, the huge increase in unemployment, and the jobs that are there to be filled, which are mostly low paying retail, food-service, or service industry jobs.
Put on top of that, the increases in inflation of heating, fuel, electricity.
Put on top of that the soon coming massive increase in consumer inflation....

1929 is going to be repeated. The only difference? There won't be bank runs, because they already have all your money due to the credit lines you have run up for the last 12 years +.

They have taken your gold, replaced it with paper, and are now sealing the deal by extorting the rest of that little that remains through inflation and hyped global threat.

Greenspan is no longer under threat of losing his paycheck, and no suprise to me, is back to talking about what a mistake the system is, and the myth its been operating under.


I hear rumors that the next new print, revised world map is going to put FOR LEASE over North America instead of United States.......by the way..... it's a land contract deal, so make sure you get that in writing, and don't miss any payments.

I think the wall will crush us before some see the writing on it.

[bishop]

Quote by: RickSp The Norwegians have an expression - "the trees do not grow to the sky." At least in the North East it is hard to believe that we are not in a speculative bubble. I think it is likely to slowly deflate rather than pop, but only time will tell. I find it interesting that of the predicted 800,000 job losses, 300,000 are predicted to be in the financial sector. That is a lot of mortgage brokers.

i can't find anything in a quick google search, but i know that the growth of real estate broker jobs was insane over the past several years. probably lots of people lower skilled people felt that that was a good chance to earn a living given the horrible job conditions then.

i think the brunt of the job losses will be in regions where the market's way overpriced.. i'm not sure if the net effect will be nearly as high as their predictions though.. i can easily see other regions' real estate markets heating up - especially since the baby boomers ARE beginning to retire.. (how time flies, eh? just a couple months ago, we were talking about how they were going to actually start retiring some day. amazing how that time stuff works.)


the retarded thing about all of this, imo, is that i wouldn't blame the fed for the real estate bubble.. they needed to lower rates when the recession hit home. greedy/stupid individuals are the ones who helped create this bubble.. i personally know someone, a real fool, who did the following all within the past 8 months:

1. sold his condo.
2. bought a house for $1million.
3. started construction on a new $1.3million house.
4. took out interest-only mortgages on both houses.


oh, and he lives just north of san fran.. he's gonna be up shit's creek sooner than he realizes and he has only himself to blame.