Oil Prices Hit Record $66.15 Per Barrel

[tman_ndsu08]

Quote by: monty of ll bishop, you said: " hydrogen is a viable alternative to energy for cars, but we don't have any refueling stations." That's one of the reasons but it's also pie in the sky because we don't have a cheap method of making hydrogen. Nulcear maybe in the future but only to a degree will it be a fix for the lack of petroleum.

We can make hydrogen from electrolysis very easily.

And if you use electricty from solar panals to power the electrolysis, you're essentially making hydrogen for free.

[bishop]

solar to hydrogen is also the most efficient method using today's knowledge/technology. the univ. of hawaii actually built one of these power plants.

it seems the biggest problem with hydrogen is that there are so many ways to produce it that the energy industry (and its financiers - like the government) haven't decided on which method is the best. you can make hydrogen from solar, nuclear, methane, biodegradeables...


it is definitely good to see just how much research is being done to find alternatives to oil..

[monty of ll]

tman- If someone gave you the solar panels for free then you would be right about producing free hydrogen. Almost. It sounds good but what you are missing is that the quantity of solar panels required to equal the fuel energy in even a gallon of gas is astronomical. If you want to get an up close idea of the energy contained in a gallon of gas then empty a gas can and stick a lit match in it.

No seriously, don't do that. Just accept the fact that all of these energy alternatives are miniscule when it comes to equalling the energy we get from petroleum fuels.

Here's my solution for you and others to ponder: We are not going to come up with any source of energy that is going to completely take the place of oil. Even downsizing vehicles is not going to solve the problem for long and completely. Therefore we need to get away from dependence on oil or energy sources to attempt to replace it. Two huge solutions are transportation of goods from the source right to the place of use or consumption and mass transit for people.

For the first it will require a rail transport network that transports goods to very near the points of consumption and then cheap transportation to the final destination. That means that our rail systems as they are today, fail us because they require huge amounts of trucking to the final destination. That needs to be fixed.

For the second, take a look at Cuba of all places. Out of necessity they share transportation with the use of state owned vehicles and large buses they call camels which carry over 200 people. http://www.baksheesh.com/photos/cuba...s/Image17.html Have a look at the picture. You will note that there is no other traffic around the camel. That's what downtown Havana looks like and it's a major city with over 2,000,000 people. The highways look about the same, where you will pass maybe 10 oncoming vehicles in a mile of highway on a busy day.

So the solutions are there. We may not like the idea of accepting our fate but the sooner we start making it happen, the better off we will all be. Dawg forbid the day when we won't be able to go for a Sunday drive to show off the new wheels!

p.s. Anyone who gets really bent out of shape talking about Cuba can look at Hong Cong where the situation is similar except for different reasons. That being, there's no space to park the stupid things.

[PatrickHenry]

Gravity/vacuum trains are the ideal solution for mass transit. Proposed in the sixties by my uncle Larry Edwards. He couldn't even get the funding for a pilot project despite that he was a designer of Lockheed's Polaris and a feature article on GVT in the Scientific American. The highway/oil/auto/insurance/etc lobby is overwhelmingly powerful for a new paradigm to materialize in America.
http://www.capsu.org/library/documents/0054.html




Good ideas aren't enough; you need economic muscle to make things happen.

[bishop]

i'm not sure i buy this socialist paradise you're painting for transportation monty.. people are going to demand the ability to drive their own vehicles, rather than depend on some bureaucratic transportation agency to cart them around... we have some time before oil runs out... assuming that research continues making the advancements that we've seen over the past couple years, it's reasonable to suggest that come 10 years from now, we will have an economically viable alternative to oil. in the meantime, people will buy hybrids to compensate for higher gas prices.


using high powered magnets is another good idea.. i believe the japanese have something like this.

[tman_ndsu08]

Quote by: monty of ll tman- If someone gave you the solar panels for free then you would be right about producing free hydrogen. Almost. It sounds good but what you are missing is that the quantity of solar panels required to equal the fuel energy in even a gallon of gas is astronomical. If you want to get an up close idea of the energy contained in a gallon of gas then empty a gas can and stick a lit match in it. No seriously, don't do that. Just accept the fact that all of these energy alternatives are miniscule when it comes to equalling the energy we get from petroleum fuels.

Interestingly enough, all the energy that is stored in fossil fuels is chemical energy left around from photosynthesis.

So you're saying the sun doesn't give us enough energy?

[bishop]

heh.. i think he was suggesting that solar panels aren't that efficient - yet.


i look at these different alternative energies and liken it to tech research back in the 70's... it took them a while, but some 20 years later, their research progressed to the point where it created a cultural revolution of sorts.. there's a hell of a lot of research going into alternative energy right now. i don't see why some don't think that they can develop true alternatives a couple of years from now..

[tman_ndsu08]

I understand what he's saying completely. Hell I agree with him, solar panels are too expensive right now. It's the same with any non fossil fuel energy source: it costs so much to make a product out of it that's easy to deliver to consumers that no company will put forth money until they absolutely have to. And that time isn't now, yet.

[monty of ll]

bishop- Socialist paradise? That's insulting to me that you would take my ideas and turn them into me proposing or entertaining a socialist paradise. I had offered Hong Kong as another example to prevent such rude comments.

the big problem with a discussion such as this is that too many people enter into it with no background at all simply because they have nothing at stake. Just saying that you think 'they' will come up with a true alternative for oil doesn't make it so.

You said: "i look at these different alternative energies and liken it to tech research back in the 70's... it took them a while, but some 20 years later, their research progressed to the point where it created a cultural revolution of sorts.."

What sorts? Have you any notion at all what % of petroleum use has been replaced with alternate energy sources? If I said less than 1% would that give you a reason to start doing some searches on the subject to prove that it was more? Sorry pal, there ain't nuthin that is going to replace U.S. consumption of 22 million barrels a day. And even if there was, the U.S. should have started to pursue those alternatives 10 years ago in order to bring something online 20 years from now that could replace 10% of oil consumption.

Cultural revolution be damned. Ignoring the impending shortfall or attempting to make up for it in the M.E. is more like it. Get that old bike out of the basement and oil it up, you'll be needing it!

[PatrickHenry]

See Ruppert: Crossing the Rubicon, the Decline of the American Empire at the End of the Age of Oil. There's no real alternatives even on the horizon. But there is a lotta money to be made for those with an essential resource when it becomes more scarce every day...

[kubedawg]

selling my truck once it's paid off and buyin me a hybrid...

oh wait... im 400lbs, and 6ft 7in... how's that gonna work?........................

[PatrickHenry]

Quote by: kubedawg im 400lbs, and 6ft 7in... how's that gonna work?

You need to do some walkin' for a while my friend... http://www.fatmanwalking.com/

Then maybe you'll live long enough to finish the car payments on your hybrid SUV: http://www.lexus.com/models/rx_hybrid/exterior.html

[monty of ll]

Well said Patrick! There really are no alternatives on the horizon but people want to believe that there are because it's a 'feel good' position to take. Once individuals start reading such information as you mention above, it becomes plain to them that finding an alternative for oil is not the answer.

But they seem to want to hold on to that idea, mainly because there is a lot of propaganda flying around that is saying that the U.S. is drawing itself away from dependence on M.E. oil. When one looks at the statistics one sees that is far from the truth.

[PatrickHenry]

Quote by: monty of ll finding an alternative for oil is not the answer.

We can do some things though, monty. I just bought a new hybrid

Solar cooking

I have solar hot water on both of the houses that I own, and did you look at the proposal my uncle Larry made for mass transit?

More on Tube Transit: http://www.lib.berkeley.edu/news_eve...tics/pt/4.html and forward

[monty of ll]

Patrick- Yes, I did look at the idea on mass transit and I agree that is the kind of innovative approaches that must be made. This is totally in line with my assertion that rail transport, etc. is the answer and not finding the pie in the sky alternative for oil.

As for individuals changing over to alternative energy sources such as solar, that again is the right approach. It costs a bit to get into some of these alternatives but the payback is worth it. More individuals should do it and those individuals will be able to divorce themselves from the huge issues that will be facing those who insist on continuing to use petroleum products for everything.

I just might add, I personally heat my home with almost exclusively wood with an electric backup. At least 80% wood. I'm lucky to have the land that I can cut my firewood from while I realize that most don't. In any case, that's the alternative for me while the alternative for some others may be another approach. Now having said that, I realize that there may be very limited choices for those who live in big cities in multi-family highrises where they are limited to the fuel chosen for the building. Hey, maybe even wind power on the tops of high buildings. There is a tremendous amount of energy to be had from the wind.

The message is: Don't run around looking for something to replace oil because nothing will do it. Our lifestyles will need to change to reflect the lack of affordable oil.

[PatrickHenry]

monty, even if there were a great alternative to oil for energy purposes, let's say cheap, clean fusion electricity (fat chance), oil is THE essential raw material for industrial chemistry. We are surrounded with oil-derived plastics...

[monty of ll]

Oil dependent industry and oil based products are something that many people don't even consider in a conversation such as this. Here's a copy and paste from a U.S. gov. site that has some facts and figures that may be of interest to those taking part in this thread.

---------------

Data for 2004 (except where noted)
Gallons of Oil per Barrel 42
Barrels of Oil per Metric Ton (U.S.) 7.33
U.S. Crude Oil Production 5,419,000 Barrels / Day

U.S. Crude Oil Imports 10,088,000 Barrels / Day

U.S. Crude Oil Imports from OPEC 5,042,000 Barrels / Day
Top U.S. Crude Oil Supplier Canada - 1,616,000 Barrels / Day
U.S. Petroleum Product Imports 3,057,000 Barrels / Day

U.S. Petroleum Product Imports from OPEC 659,000 Barrels / Day
Top U.S. Total Petroleum Supplier Canada - 2,138,000 Barrels / Day
U.S. Total Petroleum Exports 1,048,000 Barrels / Day

U.S. Net Petroleum Imports 12,097,000 Barrels / Day

U.S. Petroleum Consumptiona 20,731,000 Barrels / Day

Dependence on Net Petroleum Imports 57.8%
Crude Oil Domestic First Price (Wellhead Price) $36.77 / Barrel
Motor Gasoline Retail Prices, U.S. City Average $1.92 / Gallon
Regular Grade Motor Gasoline Retail Prices, U.S. City Average $1.88 / Gallon
Premium Motor Gasoline Retail Prices, U.S. City Average $2.07 / Gallon
Federal Motor Gasoline Tax 18.4 Cents/Gallon
U.S. Motor Gasoline Consumptiona 9,105,000 Barrels / Day
(382.4 Million Gallons / Day)
Share of US Oil Consumption for Transportation 67%
U.S. Average Home Heating Oil Price $1.55 / Gallon (Excluding Taxes)
Number of U.S. Operable Petroleum Refineries 148
U.S. Proved Reserves of Crude Oil as of December 31, 2003 21,891 million barrels
U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve 676 Million Barrels

------------------

Note the last two lines. That says to me if I'm not mistaken, that the U.S. had proven reserves as of Dec. 03 good for around 3 years at today's rate of consumption. I divided those last two figures by 21-22 million barrels/day which is U.S. consumption. Does anyone know what that figure is today? Does anyone know if that picture has changed significantly in the last 1 2/3 years from that date. Seems to me that if the U.S. doesn't corner some big oil markets then the near future is not going to be all that rosy!

It probably also means that if things go bad in Iran and the M.E. tap is turned off to any degree, we better be cranking up one hell of a lot of solar cells in the next year or two. (tongue in cheek)

[bishop]

that number's about right.. of course, it will be affected by the rising cost of oil, as more people look towards more fuel-efficient types of transportation (including mass transit).

[monty of ll]

bishop- You say that number is about right. That must mean that you know something about the subject so could you comment on it further. I know my math is about right but do you know if the Strategic and Proven Reserve number is declining? When I read that the 'reserves' are enough for around 3 years, it means just that to me. It would seem that new reserves would have had to be found or in the case of the 'strategic' imported to maintain that level. Or has the level diminished now to the point where the U.S. has much less in 'proven' reserve because of diminished imports?

Is this really the key to why oil prices rise? It would seem to be totally relevant to me. I would have thought that many would be extremely interested in knowing something about this topic, due to it's importance. Unfortunately it almost appears that people look at the price at the gas pump and sigh and then don't question why and what it means.

[Prometheus]

Quote by: SteveA This article shoud be renamed to: Dollar hits record low of 1/66th a barrel of oil

This is probably the best point made in this entire thread.

Gold star for Steve.