Sadr Offers Deal for Truce as Fighting Persists in Iraq

[grandpa]

Sadr Offers Deal for Truce as Fighting Persists in Iraq - New York Times BAGHDAD — The Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr on Sunday took a step toward ending six days of intense combat between his militia allies and Iraqi and American forces in Basra and Baghdad, saying in a statement that his followers would lay down their arms providing the Iraqi government met a series of demands. The substance of the nine-point statement, released by Mr. Sadr on Sunday afternoon, was hammered out in elaborate negotiations over the past few days with senior Iraqi officials, some of whom traveled to Iran to meet with Mr. Sadr, according to several officials involved in the negotiations.

Will there be negotiations? Would the negotiations work?

Grandpa h.

[HelioPrime]

Nope. It will only show:

- Start violence
- Offer demands
- Get demand meet
- More violence for more demands

[J. Askiloupos]

HelioPrime, I don't feel that you're giving Sadr nearly the amount of credit he deserves as a leader.

If the demands of the militia under his control are met, the violence will subside.

The possibility certainly exists that it may flare up again in the future, because, this IS the Middle East we're discussing here, and Kalashikov is a household name.

[Rainbow]

Quote by: J. Askiloupos I don't feel that you're giving Sadr nearly the amount of credit he deserves as a leader.

That guy is testing eventual outcomes when Iran might be in possession of WMD, especially since al-Sadr is under the Iranian governing body (heavy) influence.
Nevertheless, that guy is personally responsible for killing some tens (at least) of his political and/or religious opponents, and a warrant is still into effect.
What does he deserve ?
He should be taken out, some years ago, instead and indeed.

[grandpa]

ANALYSIS-Iraqi crackdown backfires, strengthens Sadrists BAGHDAD, March 31 (Reuters) - Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's crackdown on militias in the southern oil port of Basra appears to have backfired, exposing the weakness of his army and strengthening his political foes ahead of elections. U.S. President George W. Bush has praised the crackdown, calling it a "defining moment" for Iraq, but it has unleashed a wave of destabilising violence in southern Iraq and in Baghdad that risks undoing the security improvements of the past year.

Bush often offers praise to "destabilising violence."

Grandpa h.

[Sonart]

.

BAGHDAD, March 31 (Reuters) - "Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's crackdown on militias in the southern oil port of Basra appears to have backfired, exposing the weakness of his army and strengthening his political foes ahead of elections."

This is the way I keep hearing it. Al-Maliki apparently thought the time was right to step out and show that his government was strong enough to start asserting control over opposition groups.

Oooops! Seems the government troops were totally out fought, and that al-Sadr is negotiating with a definite upper hand.

You paying attention, Patreus?

McCain?

.

[grandpa]

Quote by: Sonart . This is the way I keep hearing it. Al-Maliki apparently thought the time was right to step out and show that his government was strong enough to start asserting control over opposition groups.

Apparently, these hopes for a "strong hand" are constistently dashed. And that's what tends to happen when you're dealing with "opposition groups."

Iraqi deaths spike in March - CNN.com BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) -- Deaths among Iraqi civilians, security forces and insurgents jumped in March because of the recent spasm of violence in the country's Shiite regions, an Iraqi Interior Ministry official said. "It's obvious that the [number of] killed and wounded have increased because of the military operation in Basra and the violence that erupted across the country after the operation started," the official said.

Quote by: Sonart . ...You paying attention, Patreus? McCain?

Sometimes, I swear the warhawks are like mentally impaired children.

Grandpa h.

[Sonart]

.

Apparently, these hopes for a "strong hand" are constistently dashed. And that's what tends to happen when you're dealing with "opposition groups."

Not necessarily... it depends on who wields the "Strong Hand". Recall that Sadam Hussein managed to control opposition, although his was more an "Iron Hand" than a "Strong Hand".


.

[grandpa]

Quote by: Sonart . Not necessarily... it depends on who wields the "Strong Hand".

That's sort of true. But it only illustrates how the "strong hand" is not necessarily the best one (not that Saddam's Iraq was a superpower).

here's another indication of this truism:

U.S. reassesses Iraqis after Basra offensive - Conflict in Iraq - MSNBC.com WASHINGTON - The Pentagon's ability to reduce troop levels in Iraq will hinge on how well the Iraqis handle violent outbreaks like the recent operations in Basra, the Pentagon's top military officer said Wednesday. Meanwhile, three retired generals testified on Capitol Hill that the military faces the likelihood of increasing chaos in Iraq.

Grandpa h.

[JoshuaRGodinez]

Quote by: grandpa Will there be negotiations? Would the negotiations work? Grandpa h.

Yes. I think yes. The Mahdi militia is the biggest symptom of an outstanding problem for Iraq. The existence of militias that don't answer to the central government will continue to threaten the peace even when they aren't engaged in overt action. Having a neighbor with a bazooka pointed at you who won't do what the police say tends to be unsettling even if they aren't doing anything. I thought at first the government could kick butt and people would recognize the weakness of Sadr, but he keeps coming back like a cockroach. It seems like now it has to be a strategy of supress, delay, and outgrow. The government will have to suppress Sadr's overt actions, delay him from getting what he wants, and allow the Iraqi society to outgrow his influence.

[grandpa]

Quote by: JoshuaRGodinez Yes. I think yes.

They might have to:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/04/wo...ll&oref=slogin BAGHDAD — More than 1,000 Iraqi soldiers and policemen either refused to fight or simply abandoned their posts during the inconclusive assault against Shiite militias in Basra last week, a senior Iraqi government official said Thursday. Iraqi military officials said the group included dozens of officers, including at least two senior field commanders in the battle.

Grandpa h.

[Toyotech]

So in reality what we have here folks is Sadr offering up a cease fire after his forces brutally beat the Iraqi forces, because now he has ordered his Mahdi Army to march on Najaf and there are whispers in the streets of Sadr City that there is a large force of Sadrists preparing for another battle. I recall a news article the other day about Sadrists setting up explosives around Sadr City.

[Rainbow]

Fallujah - part II ?

[Toyotech]

pretty much we will find out this weekend

[Chaossaber314]

Quote by: Rainbow Fallujah - part II ?

That was the same eerie feeling of deja vu I got as well.

[PugnamCommitere]

The thing is that Iraq simply does not need to agree to anything ,guess who is winning.Besides peace time should be called "prepare for attack time" because that is really what it is.
For example ,Tet offensive.

[Simonius]

Isn't it time just to hand Iraq back to the Iraqi's and offer them a decent deal for the oil?

[grandpa]

Quote by: Simonius Isn't it time just to hand Iraq back to the Iraqi's and offer them a decent deal for the oil?

[Thanatos]

Quote by: Rainbow Fallujah - part II ?

More like Vietnam. In Fallujah, the insurgents allowed themselves to be surrounded and were eventually crushed by superior American forces. It strongly resembled the original battle for Baghdad; our armor went in and flattened any building from which people shot back, and heavy infantry cleaned out the rubble. This worked fairly well as a model for urban warfare.

We've been applying strong Darwinian pressure to invent successful tactics and steadily reversing what little popularity the U.S. had to begin with through stray bombs. The insurgents will not allow themselves to be surrounded and slowly crushed again.

Al Sadr has put the U.S. in a losing situation diplomatically. He'll get a chance to move around if there's a ceasefire and if the U.S. refuses we look bad. He has nothing to lose from this.

[Gods_Mercenary]

I had misjudged Sadr in the past, He's no blind fanatic, but a realist with real goals and ideas on how to meet them. I think he can be dealt with, and when he declares cease fires, it seems like his people listen, so it's probably worth it t deal