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RickSp · Feb 2, 2007, 07:52 pm

Intelligence Report Predicts Spiraling of Violence in Iraq

Quote:

A much-anticipated assessment of Iraq by America’s intelligence agencies describes a worsening cycle of chaos in the country, and predicts that the sectarian strife will continue to fracture the country without bold actions by Iraqi politicians.

And even if violence is diminished, prospects for a political reconciliation in the country are dim “given the current winner-take-all attitude and sectarian animosities infecting the political scene,” the assessment warns.

The assessment, titled "Prospects for Iraq’s Stability: A Challenging Road Ahead", begins with this blunt conclusion:

"Iraqi society’s growing polarization, the persistent weakness of the security forces and the state in general, and all sides’ ready recourse to violence are collectively driving an increase in communal and insurgent violence and political extremism.

"Unless efforts to reverse these conditions show measurable progress during the term of this estimate, the coming 12 to 18 months, we assess that the overall security situation will continue to deteriorate at rates comparable to the latter part of 2006."

The term “civil war” accurately describes key elements of the conflict, including “the hardening of ethno-sectarian identities,” the report says, but the overall struggle is more complicated. The report points to a lethal stew of Iraqi-on-Iraqi bloodshed across and within ethnic lines, Al Qaeda and Sunni insurgent attacks, “and widespread criminally motivated violence.”

Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates called the term “civil war” a “bumper-sticker answer” that oversimplified the reality of overlapping conflicts. “I believe that there are essentially four wars going on in Iraq,” he said at a Pentagon briefing today, citing Shia-on-Shia strife, principally in the South; sectarian violence, largely in Baghdad; the Sunni insurgency, and attacks by Al Qaeda.

The assessment contains the consensus judgments of the 16 agencies that make up the intelligence community and is sure to fuel the debate within Congress and between some lawmakers and the White House over what to do.

Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, the Democratic majority leader, called the document “the latest in a long line of bleak assessments by foreign policy and military experts indicating the president’s plan is flawed and failing. This conclusion is shared by a bipartisan group of Congress and an overwhelming majority of Americans.”

In general, the assessment is gloomy about the eroding security in the country and the prospects for Iraq’s government to reign in the violence between Sunni and Shia sects.

Last year the NIE said things were bad. This year the NIE says things are far worse with little hope of improvement. Indeed the estimate predicts the violence can only grow worse. Has anyone noticed that the longer we stay the worse things become in occupied Iraq?

Epistemologist · Feb 2, 2007, 07:55 pm

I thought it would be rather clear without all the money, time, etc. spent on a "formal" analysis of the situation. But now I guess the Americans have yet more evidence to support their withdrawal.

Osborn F Enready · Feb 3, 2007, 02:48 pm

What has it come to, when we need a group labeled "intelligence" to give us statements of the freakin obvious?

RickSp · Feb 3, 2007, 04:03 pm

The only value I suppose is when the president and his party are continuing to lie about the "progress" in Iraq that his own intelligence agencies tell the obvious truth.

Even the NIE spins the truth. On one hand it details the near certain debacle of a continued occupation while also claiming that withdrawing would lead to a near certain debacle. The NIE studiously refuses to acknowledge that the continued occupation is part of the problem.

gr8fuldaniel · Feb 4, 2007, 03:43 pm

Todays Ted Rall:

Boetie · Feb 4, 2007, 04:11 pm

This fiasco was known long before Junior even became resident of the WH.

In case many of you don't know the military has gone over the possible scenarios should we ever attack the country of Iraq and concluded that the only possible good outcome would be for the three tribes to unite together as Iraqi nationalists.

What do you think the odds of that would be given the past history of Kurds wanting to become independent for decades, given the area was ruled under the dominance of the Sunni tribe with Saddam as the leader, given that much of the Sunni populance is secular compared to the theocratic slant of the Shia tribe, given the state of affairs in Iraq from 1920 unitl Saddam took control. What are the odds that everyone in Iraq will unite under Iraqi Nationalism should someone as stupid as Junior attack that nation and leave a power vacumm?

There has not been one single military analysis that stated the possiblity of a rosy outcome that Cheney bullshitted the peope with. You remember the Cheney bullshit, flowers and candy?

Trotsky described Junior and Cheney decades ago when he said the way the right wing will run things is to turn everything upside down and see what happens. This is exactly what Junior and Cheney did. They turned everything upside down in Iraq to see what happens and they want all the I told you so's to shut up.

This is not a surpirse that shit will hit the fan if you screw up Iraq.

Feb 2, 2007, 07:55 pm	#2 (permalink) (top)
Epistemologist God is good Location: Down by the river, stealing your water Posts: 1,518	I thought it would be rather clear without all the money, time, etc. spent on a "formal" analysis of the situation. But now I guess the Americans have yet more evidence to support their withdrawal. But what's to stop the manic tide, The suicide of our own pride? The Complex

Feb 3, 2007, 02:48 pm	#3 (permalink) (top)
Osborn F Enready Principled Observer Location: Toledo, Ohio Posts: 13,873	What has it come to, when we need a group labeled "intelligence" to give us statements of the freakin obvious? Petition of Redress of Grievances: http://www.givemeliberty.org/default.htm Canadian Lawsuit Against Their National Banks: http://www.freewebs.com/classaction/ Osborn F. Enready

Feb 3, 2007, 04:03 pm	#4 (permalink) (top)
RickSp Volcanic Erupter Posts: 9,491	The only value I suppose is when the president and his party are continuing to lie about the "progress" in Iraq that his own intelligence agencies tell the obvious truth. Even the NIE spins the truth. On one hand it details the near certain debacle of a continued occupation while also claiming that withdrawing would lead to a near certain debacle. The NIE studiously refuses to acknowledge that the continued occupation is part of the problem. Rick "When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross." Sinclair Lewis

Feb 4, 2007, 03:43 pm	#5 (permalink) (top)
gr8fuldaniel Fire the Liars Location: California Posts: 7,090	Todays Ted Rall: ~~ Helpful Linx * Huff Post * WRH * RAW STORY ~~

Feb 4, 2007, 04:11 pm	#6 (permalink) (top)
Boetie Hot Lava Posts: 1,227	This fiasco was known long before Junior even became resident of the WH. In case many of you don't know the military has gone over the possible scenarios should we ever attack the country of Iraq and concluded that the only possible good outcome would be for the three tribes to unite together as Iraqi nationalists. What do you think the odds of that would be given the past history of Kurds wanting to become independent for decades, given the area was ruled under the dominance of the Sunni tribe with Saddam as the leader, given that much of the Sunni populance is secular compared to the theocratic slant of the Shia tribe, given the state of affairs in Iraq from 1920 unitl Saddam took control. What are the odds that everyone in Iraq will unite under Iraqi Nationalism should someone as stupid as Junior attack that nation and leave a power vacumm? There has not been one single military analysis that stated the possiblity of a rosy outcome that Cheney bullshitted the peope with. You remember the Cheney bullshit, flowers and candy? Trotsky described Junior and Cheney decades ago when he said the way the right wing will run things is to turn everything upside down and see what happens. This is exactly what Junior and Cheney did. They turned everything upside down in Iraq to see what happens and they want all the I told you so's to shut up. This is not a surpirse that shit will hit the fan if you screw up Iraq.