Mexico conservative claims tight election win

[tman_ndsu08]

I've got an easy fix for that:

- No free ER for anyone

- Don't force people to have insurance

- No free school

- No free social programs.

[rmnunez]

Those are sensible suggestions, unless you take into account the interests of the immigrant community which should be about a fifth of the population there. If united statians are of an equal mind on this, foreseably even though half might even approve of depriving these people of basic necesities, considering the uncounted -most people in the US would not support the enumerated above.

[rcne]

Lopez Obrador closes the gap to 0.64%

This race is close, will a total recount occur? It seems as if with the race so even, taking the time to count every vote may be the only way to settle the issue.

Especially since Obrador is insisting on it and will protest in the streets - up to and including I think armed conflict. Even if the votes are counted and he still loses, I don't see an easy transition, nor Obrador not protesting and possibly encouraging armed conflict.

The next few weeks will be tumultuous for Mexico.

[rmnunez]

The official preliminary results included samples from 98.45% of the records at each polling station. These indicate 58.9% of the eleigible population voted. With 71,350,976 registered voters, then 42,025,724 people cast ballots. However, the addition of tallied votes shows 14,027,214 for Calderon, 13,624,506 for Lopez Obrador, 8,318,886 for Madrazo, 1,085,966 for Patricia Mercado, 384,317 for Campa, 281,145 for wrrite-ins and 827,317 voided votes. The sum of these figures is 38,549,351 votes. Thus 3,476,373 votes are not included.

Lopez Obrador argues these are votes for him and his party, I think they are votes for any of the candidates and likely reflect more or less the same overall patterns seen in the national profile which wouldn't change the final result by much. The IFE reported they have 2,581,226 votes which have not been tallied because of irregularities. Once those irregularities were resolved, the difference between the two leading candidates diminished to .64% (just over 200 thousand votes). This leaves about a million uncounted votes. Calderon estimates that once those remaining million or so are counted, he could end up with as little as 160 thousand more votes than Lopez Obrador, but the latter thinks those uncounted will yield him the victory by about 200 thousand.

[rmnunez]

Once Lopez Obrador's challenges reach the Elections Tribunal, they anticipate mobilizing the base not to pressure the magistrates, rather than to let them know they are supported and should not feel cowed by Fox and his PAN (according to PRD leaders). Lopez Obrador is certain that in such case these rallies should be enough and does not anticipate going any further.

Ebrad (Lopez Obrador's designated successor) who won handily in Mexico City, has assured reporters City Hall will not provide resources or take actions aimed at facilitating rallies or demonstrations for anyone regardless of how these develop, he guarantees people will be able to get around and traffic will flow no matter what. Its an unusual assertion because this hasn't been the case so far. Ebrad used to be the Police Commissioner.

[rmnunez]

Lopez Obrador ahead in the recount:

At 4:30 on the first day of the recount, having computed the scores at 65.68% of the polling stations in all 300 electoral districts, a trend towards Lopez Obrador is evident with 36.91%, Calderon has only 34.6% and the rest trail behind. http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/360296.html

[rmnunez]

With 91.39% of the votes tallied, Lopez Obrador is now up with 36.18% followed by Calderón with 35.07% and Madrazo has 22.02%. http://www.cronica.com.mx/nota.php?id_nota=249717

At 22:16, with 92% of the votes tallied and about 2 million votes left, Calderon had 35.12% and Lopez Obrador 36.11%, according to the IFE.

[rmnunez]

At 03:24, with 97.19% of the votes tallied, Calderon has 35.54% and Lopez Obrador 35.66% (a 0.12% difference) according to the IFE.

[Matt W]

Impressively tight. Is there any particular geographic split, or is it fairly scattered?

[rmnunez]

Now they've counted 97.25% of the votes, Calderon got 35.55%, and Lopez Obrador 35.65% (just 0.10% difference.

Yes, there is a geographical split, the northern half the country is mostly PAN (Calderon)and the south is mostly PRD (Lopez Obrador) this explains the trend in the recount as the challenged votes are the northern ones and as these get recounted they tend to show PAN votes.

With 97.31% counted, Calderon has 35.55, Lopez Obrador has 35.64, now just .09% difference.

[rmnunez]

Another adjustment, with 97.37% of the votes counted, 35.56% are for Calderon, 35.63% for Lopez Obrador (.07% difference)

[Matt W]

:eek:

Tense stuff. With such a split, do you reckon there will be legal challenges come Sunday when the President-elect is announced?

[rmnunez]

Now the difference is .05%

[rmnunez]

Now .03% difference

[rmnunez]

Now the difference is .02%

[rmnunez]

Just now Calderon moved ahead, he now has 4,100 more votes (less than 0.1% over Lopez Obrador), 97.6% of the votes have been counted.

We can a anticipate Lopez Obrador will dispute these figures, claim fraud, demand another recount, probably stage some marches and siege the election authority.

[rmnunez]

With 97.84% counted Calderon has 35.62% Lopez Obrador has 35.57% (a .05% difference -about 20 thousand votes)

[Matt W]

We can a anticipate Lopez Obrador will dispute these figures, claim fraud, demand another recount, probably stage some marches and siege the election authority.

And you honestly don't think Calderon would with a margin like that?

[rmnunez]

Now with 98.1% counted, Calderon leads by .11%

I think the left has a tendency to presume bad faith, the right doesn't.

If the pattern holds, by the time they end the tallies, they will yield about the same difference shown Sunday night (Calderon was up then by about 400 thousand votes). As a matter of fact, Lopez Obrador said earlier today that the whole election was rigged and they had to call another.

[rcne]

This is close, since you know who ever comes up with less will object, how will they decide - a total recount of all the votes? This is a razor thin margin of victory for whoever wins, they have to form a coalition to stabilize the government then don't they.

Lets hope the protests don't get out of hand - good luck to Mexico in resolving this issue.

Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has said he will challenge the outcome of Sunday's presidential election. He spoke as the almost complete results indicated a razor-thin victory for his conservative rival, Felipe Calderon. Mr Lopez Obrador said he would appeal to the courts, and urged his supporters to rally this weekend in Mexico City. The results came after electoral officials worked around the clock to verify ballots from the 2 July poll. Mr Lopez Obrador's announcement came after the lead swung back and forth between the two men and was narrowed down to just a few thousand votes. Preliminary results after Sunday's election gave the lead to Mr Calderon but Mr Lopez Obrador refused to concede. He then took the lead as the electoral authorities reviewed the vote tallies but with just a handful of left to check, he fell behind again.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/5154896.stm