<![CDATA[Volconvo Debate, Talk, and Discussion Forums - Blogs - The Skeptic's Toolbox by shawmutt]]> http://www.volconvo.com/forums/blog4225.html A debate, talk, and discussion forum for politics, religion, economics, science, arts and other topics. en Sat, 18 May 2013 16:09:31 GMT vBulletin 60 http://www.volconvo.com/forums/images/misc/rss.jpg <![CDATA[Volconvo Debate, Talk, and Discussion Forums - Blogs - The Skeptic's Toolbox by shawmutt]]> http://www.volconvo.com/forums/blog4225.html Falsifiable Hypotheses http://www.volconvo.com/forums/entry21.html Fri, 15 May 2009 13:20:48 GMT ---Quote--- Always ask whether the hypothesis can be, at least in principle, falsified. Propositions that are untestable, unfalsifiable are not worth much. Consider the grand idea that our...
Always ask whether the hypothesis can be, at least in principle, falsified. Propositions that are untestable, unfalsifiable are not worth much. Consider the grand idea that our Universe and everything in it is just an elementary particle--an electron, say--in a much larger Cosmos. But if we can never acquire information for outside our Universe, is not the idea incapable of disproof? You must be able to check assertions out. Inveterate skeptics must be given the chance to follow your reasoning, to duplicate your experiments and see if they get the same result.

~Carl Sagan, [i]The Demon-Haunted World
And this concludes the series of skeptical tools. Hopefully it will serve as not only a pretty good guide for the budding skeptic, but will also help explain what a skeptic is and how he thinks. ]]> shawmutt http://www.volconvo.com/forums/entry21.html <![CDATA[Occam's Razor]]> http://www.volconvo.com/forums/entry19.html Thu, 14 May 2009 13:58:35 GMT
Occam's Razor. This convenient rule-of-thumb urges us when faced with two hypotheses that explain the data equally well to choose the simpler.

~Carl Sagan, The Demon-Haunted World
It's worth adding that it's very rare to find two hypotheses that explain the data equally well ;). ]]> shawmutt http://www.volconvo.com/forums/entry19.html The Chain of Argument http://www.volconvo.com/forums/entry16.html Wed, 13 May 2009 12:30:47 GMT
If there's a chain of argument, every link in the chain must work, including the premise.

~Carl Sagan, The Demon-Haunted World
This is pretty basic logic, but there are plenty of folks who try to get around this and insert a whole slew of logical fallacies in their argument to try and save one link. An argument is as strong as its weakest link. ]]> shawmutt http://www.volconvo.com/forums/entry16.html Quantify http://www.volconvo.com/forums/entry15.html Tue, 12 May 2009 11:44:06 GMT
Quantify. If whatever you're explaining has some measure, some numerical quantity attached to it, you'll be much better to discriminate among competing hypotheses. What is vague and qualitative is open to many explanations. Of course there are truths to be sought in the many qualitative issues with are obliged to confront, but finding them is more challenging.

~Carl Sagan, The Demon-Haunted World
This is the basis for many sciences, including the one I am involved in, medicine. It's one of the main differences between the so-called "alternative medicine" and science-based medicine.

Medicine goes through rigorous trials involving more and more people, even after approved and sent out to the public. If a medicine is found to be harmful, it is removed from the public. It is regulated for its efficacy, purity, and safety.

"Alternative medicine" relies on testimonials and small group studies, most with less than a hundred people--and is not subject to further testing after release into the public. It is not regulated for efficacy, purity, and safety beyond what is done for food. The multi-billion dollar "Alternative medicine" industry relies on ambiguity to keep on selling products. ]]> shawmutt http://www.volconvo.com/forums/entry15.html <![CDATA[It's My Hypothesis! Mine!]]> http://www.volconvo.com/forums/entry14.html Mon, 11 May 2009 10:49:55 GMT
Try not to get overly attached to a hypothesis just because it's yours. It's only a way station in the pursuit of knowledge. Ask yourself why you like the idea. Compare it fairly with the alternatives. See if you can find reasons for rejecting it. If you don't, others will.

~Carl Sagan, The Demon-Haunted World
I once believed in the existence of the Christian God. It was a great idea, a loving caring parental figure, everlasting life in a great place if I was good, someone to talk to when I was alone--what's there not to like?

When I moved to the city, I saw folks from all walks of life. Many of those folks were as equally convinced of their different convictions as I was. I clung to my religion for a while, miserably defending my belief as the one true belief. Then, I let it go. I rejected my childhood hypothesis of the existence of a Christian god, much like I rejected Santa Clause when I realized a fat man could not fit through our chimney.

My journey did not reach an end, only a beginning. I now find comfort and wonder in learning about things the way they are in reality. ]]> shawmutt http://www.volconvo.com/forums/entry14.html Spinning More than One Hypothesis http://www.volconvo.com/forums/entry13.html Sun, 10 May 2009 11:26:11 GMT
Spin more than one hypothesis. If there's something to be explained, think of all the different ways in which it could be explained. Then think of tests by which you might systematically disprove each of the alternatives. What survives, the hypothesis that resists disproof in this Darwinian selection among "multiple working hypothesis", has a much better chance of being the right answer than if you had simply run with the first idea that caught your fancy.*

*This is a problem that affects jury trials. Retrospective studies show that some jurors make up their minds very early--perhaps during opening arguments--and then retain the evidence that seems to support their initial impressions and reject the contrary evidence. The method of alternative working hypothesis is not running in their heads.

~Carl Sagan, The Demon-Haunted World
There's a lot packed into the paragraph--contained is an explanation for politics, religion, war--basically the human condition. For all of our advances, we are still animals, and take comfort in certitude. We construct a mental cage and reside within. Is it a product of our evolution--a mind so intelligent to reason, yet out of necessity a mind that needs certitude to remain sane?

This is one of the most difficult things for me as a skeptic--to move beyond my view of things and posit different hypothesis. Like every skill however, it is one that certainly can be developed, and must be for skeptics. ]]> shawmutt http://www.volconvo.com/forums/entry13.html Argument from Authority http://www.volconvo.com/forums/entry12.html Sat, 09 May 2009 11:48:19 GMT
Arguments from authority carry little weight--"authorities" have made mistakes in the past. They will do so again in the future. Perhaps a better way to say it is that in science there are no authorities; at most, there are experts.

~Carl Sagan, The Demon-Haunted World
Back in our caveman days, argument from authority was a pretty powerful and persuasive force. When the tribal leader yelled "tiger!" it was in the interest of the others to get away as quickly as possible.

These days, anyone can make a blog, write a book, write to the editor, etc. It is easy to sound like an authority on an issue. A former playboy playmate with a podium can write a book and be vaulted to authority status. An important question to ask--does the person's "authority" make the person an expert?

In kind, when trying to form an argument, it's important to be as knowledgeable about the subject as possible, and to avoid simply repeating what another "authority" has said. ]]> shawmutt http://www.volconvo.com/forums/entry12.html Encouraging Substantive Debate http://www.volconvo.com/forums/entry10.html Fri, 08 May 2009 12:28:45 GMT ---Quote--- Encourage substantive debate on the evidence by knowledgeable proponents of all points of view. Carl Sagan, The Demon-Haunted World ---End Quote--- Trying to be impartial and listen...
Encourage substantive debate on the evidence by knowledgeable proponents of all points of view.

Carl Sagan, The Demon-Haunted World
Trying to be impartial and listen to all sides of a story is difficult for me, to say the least. However, I know in order to make effective arguments I need to be able to learn a bit of what other opinions exist out there. Learning the talking points of every side helps me build good arguments against their premises. This is where Volconvo comes in handy. We have a little bit of everything in here.

Lately I've been trying to find a middle ground in a debate and work from there. As you know, dear reader, that is easier said than done on the internet. ]]> shawmutt http://www.volconvo.com/forums/entry10.html <![CDATA[Confirmation of the "Facts"]]> http://www.volconvo.com/forums/entry8.html Thu, 07 May 2009 12:51:03 GMT
Wherever possible there must be independent confirmation of the "facts".

~Carl Sagan, The Demon-Haunted World
Let's examine "independent confirmation" and what it means for the discerning skeptic. This deals with anecdotal evidence. For some less serious debates, for instance what is the best movie to see or restaurant to dine in, anecdotal evidence is not much of a problem.

However, when dealing with more serious issues, anecdotal evidence is not sufficient. Independent confirmation means that the evidence can be replicated. A person can make a hypothesis and get successful test results. Another person, independent of the first, should be able to perform the same test and get the same results.

For instance, caffeine has a certain effect on the body. An experiment can be done anywhere in the world with caffeine, and most folks will get the same effect. Contrast that to something like homeopathy, where the effects of the remedy cannot be replicated in large group studies.

For tomorrow: Debating the evidence ]]> shawmutt http://www.volconvo.com/forums/entry8.html Tools for skeptical thinking http://www.volconvo.com/forums/entry7.html Wed, 06 May 2009 12:46:58 GMT ---Quote--- What skeptical thinking boils down to is the means to construct, and to understand, a reasoned argument and -- especially important -- to recognize a fallacious or fraudulent argument. ...
What skeptical thinking boils down to is the means to construct, and to understand, a reasoned argument and -- especially important -- to recognize a fallacious or fraudulent argument. The question is not whether we like the conclusion that emerges out of the train of reasoning, but whether the conclusion follows from the premise or starting point and whether that premise is true.

~Carl Sagan, The Demon Haunted World
Over the next few days, I'll be exploring Carl Sagan's book The Demon Haunted World, focusing on the chapter, "The Fine Art of Baloney Detection," where he explores tools in a skeptical thinking kit. Tomorrow I'll get into the actual tools a bit. Hopefully by writing about what I'm reading I'll retain some knowledge and pass on a bit as well. ]]> shawmutt http://www.volconvo.com/forums/entry7.html A Good Reason to Vaccinate Your Kids http://www.volconvo.com/forums/entry4.html Tue, 05 May 2009 13:35:25 GMT Yes, choosing to not vaccinate children comes at a price. A warning to parents and anyone with a heart, this video is very difficult to watch. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-63XHXxTM4 Part 2... Yes, choosing to not vaccinate children comes at a price. A warning to parents and anyone with a heart, this video is very difficult to watch.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-63XHXxTM4

Part 2 of the discussion.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UmymvZefhKY ]]> shawmutt http://www.volconvo.com/forums/entry4.html