[RickSp]

I don't think any group in Iraq benefits from partition. The Kurds would threatened by the Turks. The Shi'ite south might be threatend by their Persian neighbors, and the Sunni middle doesn't want to be an island floating between the northern and southern oil fields.

The Sunnis have ruled Iraq for centuries are would like to continue to do so. The Sunni minority was put in power by foreign occupiers - the Ottoman Turks and then the British. Sunni domination isn't realistic anymore but argues more for negotiation than necessarily armed conflict.

The Shi'ite see their opportunity to claim a rightful role in governance, and at least so far seem careful not to overplay their hand. The Kurds, paradoxically may just want an improved continuation of the status quo. They have had several years of near-autonomy and may want only a bit more sharing of oil revenes but to be otherwise left alone.

Civil war may yet break out, but it doesn't benefit the major parties involved.