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I think it comes down to how the Wright situation effects Obama's ability to be elected. I have always thought Clinton was more likely to beat McCain, but I am beginning to believe it even more now. I agree that people who want to hang Obama with "the sins" of Wright are people who are just looking for any excuse to make him look bad and are not making reasonable choices. But no matter how true that may be in fact, those people are still willing to choose based on that criteria, and that effects his electability. Check out the latest head to head polls. RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 National Head-to-Head Polls
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I have a feeling that the general election is not going to be nearly that close. At the moment, I feel that McCain has the best chance of winning, but if the Democrats pull it together than they could turn the tide. I just have a feeling that no matter who wins, it will be by a considerably large margin.