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Quote by: GHook93  If you look at the race Clinton has the clear advantage. Realclearpolitics.com has her 132 delegates (1631 to 1499) behind Obama. However she is coming up to predominately white states. Before the Wright controversy Obama did a great job of taking race out of the equation. Like it or not it is firmly inbreeded into the primary. I personally think Obama comes off as a moral and non-racist individual, but I wouldn't have voted for Comrade Obama (or Comrade Clinton for that matter), since I am a social conservative.
The blowback from the Wright controversy is fully seen in PA. Back on 2/26 Clinton's lead was a mere 4% (46-42), fast forward to a month and a half of Wright controversy and her lead ballooned to 16% (53.3-36.3). RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Pennsylvania Democratic Primary
The only other poll by real clear politics is NC were the its the only state with a significant black population (25%).
Obama will need the white vote to win. He has not been tested since the Wright controversy. My feeling is that it has hurt him enough to lose the next few race. The only significant Latino votes are in Puerto Rico (regardless of Richardson, Clinton will still probably carry them anyways).
Look at the states (note next to the is the non-Latino white population and the delegates).
PA - 158
IN 85% - 72
NC - 70% - 115
OR 86% - 52
Guam - 4
Puerto Rico -55
MT 90% - 16
SD 88.5% - 15
WV 96% - 28
KY 90% - 51
That is 115 NC, 392 of the White dominated states and 59 foreign votes (which I expect Clinton to win)!
Bottom line if Obama can't win the White vote, then he lost! The A$$ that tell Clinton to leave should take their heads out of their well A$$. It's ignorant to tell someone she has no chance, when in reality she has a better chance then her opponent of winning!
If anyone wants to know my states check wikipedia at search the state. |
I would agree that she should not (nor would she) get out of the race, in spite of the fact that CNN reporters think she should.
Funny that CNN thought that people would vote for Obama because he is the underdog and then said he was ahead in the race, how can he be booth? Because people percieve black people as underdogs?
It appears in the polls that Clinton will win Penn. The biggest role that discrimination will play will come from the Mexican-American voting block because black neighborhoods and spanish neighborhoods have had a tribal conflict going on (for a long time) and in some states Mexican Americans make up a large percentage of voting resources. And the two races do not trust or like each other very much. Thus, Clinton by default would get most of the Mexican American votes.
I do not think that "unseen" spanish voting block is being looked at by those who make predictions.
Now many of the younger white voters would vote Obama and I do not think that race would have anything to do with their choice. Some white Christians might not like his religious ties anymore, so he could loose some of his flock over that.
It is a neck to neck race. Perhaps even California will get to vote in the primary before it's all over. That woud be a nice "change". And the good thing about the neck to neck race is not a lot of difference between them. They have simular platforms, they are both very popular with voters (teenie margin of difference). They both have something in common because one would be the first female president and the other the first black president. The both advocate change (from Bush policy).
The both know how to make speeches that the working class people want to hear.
So it might be up to the Superdeligates to try to figure out who stands the best chance of competing with McCain. That is hard to determine because some of them are... frankly.... nit wits.