Quote:
Quote by: GHook93  Does a victory on March 4th make Clinton the favorite? |
Clinton will remain the underdog after March 4. Obama has a three digit lead in pledged delegates and is closing the super delegate gap. Clinton must win today by double digit margins (and win the parallel Texas caucus where 35% of that state's delegates are chosen) to seriously dent Obama's advantage.
However, if she can convert wins today into momentum she may win some of the remaining contests by big enough margins to gain more delegates. But Hillary will need help from superdelegates currently leaning to Obama. And she'll need the Florida and Michigan delegates to be seated, which party leaders refuse to do. They may--MAY--authorize re-votes, however. That's Hillary's only hope.
It's still Obama's nomination to lose.
Quote:
Quote by: GHook93 TX is a tie, but I am predicting a Clinton win. I think the Latino will vote for her and I think the Republicans will vote for her to keep Obama out of the generals.
OH Clinton has 8 pt lead. I also predict a win for her here.
RI - Clinton has a 10 pt lead. They usually vote like NY and NJ, so expect a Clinton win.
VT - Obama has a 24 pt lead. The poll can be off, but they are unlikely off that much. |
Your predictions look about right. The wild cards in Texas and Ohio will be the big absentee votes sent in weeks ago when Obama was stronger. But those probably won't affect the final result, Hillary takes three primaries to Obama's one. Obama, however, benefits from proportional delegate counts.
It's definately getting more interesting.
Quote:
Quote by: GHook93 Note on the Republican side, McCain should official wrap it up. He has 1019 delegate (102 not "officially" pledged yet though), the polls show he has at least a 20 pt lead in all 4 states, im which 265 delegates are for grabs and McCain only needs 172 more delegates! |
No contest, no surprise. Huckabee and Paul pose no threat to McCain.