Later on they can come up with better odds, when it gets closer, as far as I know an asteroid does on wobble in it's projected pathway, so they should be able to nail down a more positive speculation if will or will not impact Mars. At least I would think they could with all our technology for measuring such things.
The "odds" would suggest a near miss, in my opinon. A way for them to have something to report for news attention.
The most interesting solar observation of late was the report that a black hole bombarded a neighboring solar system with a beam of energy, like a ray gun.
Ray Tracing: Energetic cosmic rays linked to giant black holes: Science News Online, Nov. 10, 2007 Energy from a Black Hole