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Quote by: Zeebadee  Heh, this was great. Almost as tough as predicting that there will be a full moon next month.
There are on average 120 earthquakes a year in the 6-6.9 range, 18 in the 7-7.9 range, and 1 in the range above that. This equates to 139 "major" earthquakes a year worldwide, for an average of more than 1 significant earthquake every 3 days. Pretty brave of you to establish a window for your prediction of two in 30 days. Earthquake Facts & Figures |
Well, there goes the myth that earthquakes are not predictable using the "odds". It would also support the chance that one two of those quakes might cause wide spread damage or be deadly, however only a few seem to cause such major damage such that they are remembered as important tragic events from the past. Relative to that we might narrow the odds down to about 5 a year. With 12 months a year that is still only close to a 40-60 chance when you play the odds. And the odds would be greater for two major quakes to happen in one month if we note that major means "wide spread distruction".
So the odds are in favor of that not happening - way in favor. (as many quakes are in isolated and unpopulared areas or in the oceans).
So I must bide my time and wait for the end of the 30 day period ( counting 30 days as a month) being I did not start on the 1st. Or until something happens. (as already noted in piror posting in the orginal thread over at the Religion forum)
I had to re-interpret the "prediction" after finding out that lots of earthquakes happen and because it would have been pointless to have a huntch about something that happens all the time anyway.