Hi Night,
Welcome to Volconvo and the discussion.
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Quote by: Night ABSOLUTELY NOT!
1. Iraqi insurgents are not even close to being comparable to the Viet Cong. They are not centralized, they are not supported by any major powers, and most of all, they do not help each other in large military operations. |
Isn`t Iran or Syria strong enough to support them to a degree that would enable them to breach the green zone? After all, Iran is now supplying them with IEDs that can penetrate thick steel.
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2. As it stands, insurgents in Iraq are more interested in killing each other then killing Americans.
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Yes, as it stands, but surely any insurgent group knows that their status within the insurgency group heirarchy would immediately skyrocket if they breached the green zone and caused pandamonium for several hours. I`m not talking about a lone bomber or gunner getting in, or mortars landing within it (see Sleven57 post above); I am talking about a Saigonesque Embassy style assault where the film images of insurgents running amok in an area we psychologically and strategically beleive to be secure.
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3. The Iraqis know that there is just no way to take the green zone with anything short of 100x their man power and materials.
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The TET Offensive did not result in any taking of anything by the Viet Kong or the NVA; what it did do was drive home the message of imminent defeat for the U.S. within the U.S. public.
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Someone like Al Sadr could possibly launch an attack, but there would be no chance of success, because lets face it, his "soldiers" are not trained professionals, and with all of the leaks inside the insurgent community, its just not going to happen.
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Success in this case would merely mean breaking the will of the U.S. public to continue supporting the war. It would have nothing to do with "take and hold." As it is,the support is already low. A severe jolt to those die hards would likely knock out the last remnants of the war supporters.