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Quote by: xyzer  I asked the question on another thread about warming.. It is whether estimates agreeing with estimates equal certainty or even probability? |
You'll need to clarify this question. How do you mean by "equal certainty or even probability"?
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Quote by: xyzer Here is another ..can estimates of what the suns intensity will be in 50 years added to estimates derived from past dendrology and ice core evidence(so called climate proxies) be used to predict temperatures within a few degrees some distant time in the future? If the urgency is caused by less that 1 degrees C warming in 100 years how can estimates be indicative of another increase of 1 degree in the next hundred years? |
That all depends on the reliability of the data, are you questioning that? Do you have a better technique or model? If you do, please share it with us.
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Quote by: xyzer Follow that one with the estimate that we humans who contribute some small fraction of 1 % of Co2 in our atmosphere can affect climate by changing that fraction? |
A 30% increase isn't a small fraction. You make it sound like it's trivial.
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Quote by: xyzer Thats the logic you are believing with certainty or likelihood? The studies you cite are replete with words like "it is estimated" and conclusions prefaced with words like "could", might" ad nauseam! Estimates of estimates resulting in certainty?
I don't think it fits logic and reality.. and I as I have repeatedly said it is imprudent to try to waste resources on something so illogically based..
You post.. |
Again, you are playing with semantics. Scientific language is ALWAYS cautious and conclusions ALWAYS given in terms of statistic significance figure or term. If you've ever read more than one scientific paper you would know this.
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Quote by: xyzer I'm not calling Stern anything. I realize that in 50 years many thing could change..climate will change as it has over the eons..it could get colder and it could get warmer. Which do you bet on and what are the odds? You have to admit the estimates are in fact guesses...I don't like the odds. |
The estimates are our best projections from our limited models. Again, if you have a better modelling system to provide more accurate and precise predictions, do share.